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Eastern Caribbean

*********************** TROPICAL WAVES AT 2PM (1800UTC) ***************************

A tropical wave was analyzed along 32W, south of 15N moving west near 10 knots.

*********************************************************************************************

Throughout the day, weak surface to low-level troughing remained across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. Though moisture was initially limited and confined to lower levels of the atmosphere, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with scattered showers were observed across Barbados and the Windwards by afternoon. Here in Barbados, light winds also allowed localized convection to produce isolated moderate to heavy showers along some northwestern districts. Meanwhile, across the Leewards, localized activity also produced cloudy skies with light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly along northern portions of the islands.

Conditions over Trinidad and Tobago were mostly fair as a surface to mid-level ridge pattern was the dominant feature. Contrastingly, surface to low-level confluence across the Guianas resulted in generally cloudy skies being observed with some scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms.

Winds were calm to moderate across the region peaking near 20 knots. Seas were slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking to near 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

A surface to low-level trough pushing northwestwards across Cuba produced a few light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms over the island, while just north of Puerto RIco, a frontal boundary generated similar unsettled weather conditions. Although a surface to mid-level ridge pattern was a dominant feature elsewhere, adequate moisture along with sufficient daytime heating generated light to moderate scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the afternoon.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: A ridge pattern will build across Barbados and the southern Windwards allowing a few brief light isolated showers under generally partly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, a surface to low-level trough will continue to trigger sporadic light to moderate showers across the Leeward islands.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 27/25.

Friday: A surface to mid-level ridge pattern will be the dominant feature over the region. Despite this, confluence within the ridge pattern will initiate a few showers mainly over the northern Windwards and southern Leewards coinciding with an increase in low-level moisture.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/26.

Saturday: The surface to mid-level confluent pattern will maintain occasional scattered showers across the aforementioned area while activity also spreads across the southern Windwards. Additionally, it should also be noted that an upper-level low will form south of Barbados and as such a favorable upper-level environment will exist. As a result. some pockets of deep convection can be anticipated in its vicinity.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/25.

Sunday: No significant changes are anticipated as the confluent pattern continues to affect the region.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/26.

Monday: A more favorable upper-level environment along with an increase in mid-level moisture will more readily permit deep convective cloud growth. This will potentially result in generally cloudy skies along with occasional intermittent showers and possible isolated thunderstorms throughout the day.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: A surface to low-level confluent pattern will maintain unsettled weather conditions across the USVI and Puerto Rico. Similarly, confluence across Cuba will result in occasional showers throughout the night. Across the remainder of the region, a surface to mid-level ridge pattern will be the dominant feature allowing fair to partly cloudy skies.

Friday: Surface to low-level confluence over Cuba and the Bahamas will generate some showers and isolated thunderstorms there. Comparably, shower activity will persist across Puerto Rico and areas further east. Elsewhere, no significant change is forecast.

Saturday: Improving conditions are expected across Puerto Rico. At the same time, a marginal increase in moisture over Hispaniola will initiate a few brief showers. Across the remainder of the region conditions similar to the previous day are expected.

Sunday: Shower activity will progressively spread westward across Hispaniola, while the surface to low-level confluent pattern also maintains a few showers across Puerto Rico.
Toward nightfall, a surface to low-level ridge pattern will build over eastern Cuba while a weak perturbation generates intermittent showers over the west of the island.

Monday: No significant changes are forecast across the region.
Published: 6 pm Thu 24 Sep 2020
Meteorologist Jonathan Alleyne
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