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Eastern Caribbean

************************** TROPICAL WAVES AT 2PM/1800UTC **************************

A tropical wave was introduced along 25W south of 10N moving westward at 10-15 knots.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 44W south of 17N moving westward at 15 -20 knots.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 65W south of 20N moving westward at 15 - 20 knots.

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The tropical wave currently analyzed along 65 W, generated cloudy to overcast skies, scattered light to moderate showers, periods of light rain and isolated thunderstorms across the Windwards and the Southern Leewards. Between 8am and 2pm rainfall recorded was 37mm, 20mm and 24mm in Dominica, St. Lucia and Martinique respectively. Conditions across the nothern Leewards was partly cloudy to occasionally cloudiness with brief showers. Meanwhile, over Barbados, conditions slowly improved as the day progressed due to a rebuilding surface to low-level ridge pattern. Despite this, 2.4mm, and 1.6mm of rainfall was recorded at Welchman Hall, St. Thomas and Ashton Hall, St. Peter between 6am and 6pm.

Over Trinidad and Tobago, moisture and instability trailing the tropical wave triggered occasional showers. Meanwhile across the Guianas, low level convergence, along with a very favourable upper-level pattern tiggered cloudy skies along with scattered showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Wind speeds across the moderate to breezy peaking at 23 knots here in Barbados and with higher gust near showers over the Windwards. Sea conditions were moderate in open water with swells ranging between 1.5 and 2.5m.
Western Caribbean

The tropical wave currently analyzed along 65W, generated cloudy to overcast skies, scattered light to moderate showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Meanwhile, a favourable upper-level pattern triggered cloudy skies along with showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern Bahamas and sections of Cuba. Elsewhere, a surface to mid-level ridge pattern remained dominant and mostly fair conditions prevailed.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

The alert level at La Soufriere, St. Vincent has been downgraded to Orange given that there have been no explosions at the volcano since April 22 and the number of volcanic earthquakes recorded, has also decreased significantly. At alert level ORANGE, the volcano may resume explosions with less than twenty-four hours of notice. As for Barbados, bulletins regarding ash plumes could be issued at short notice and the general public is urged to continue monitoring official sources for updates.

Tonight: A slow improvement is expected across the region as a surface to low-level ridge pattern rebuilds across the eastern Caribbean. Conditions in Barbados will be fair to occasionally cloudy with brief isolated showers. Additionally, a layer of moderate dust haze will be present across the island.

Barbados forecast: Max/Min Temps: 26/23.

Friday: A surface to low-level ridge pattern will be dominant across much of the region. Nonetheless, conditions will likely be occasionally cloudy with brief showers as low-level cloud patches, ahead of another tropical wave, traverse the region. During the night another tropical wave will be inching closer to the region.

Barbados forecast: Max/Min Temps: 30/24.

Saturday: The tropical wave, currently analyzed along 44W will begin to affect Barbados and subsequently the island chain. Conditions will likely be partly cloudy to cloudy with some scattered light to moderate showers.

Barbados forecast: Max/Min Temps: 30/24.

Sunday: Moisture and instability trailing the aforementioned tropical wave, will be affecting Barbados and the region. Furthermore, a favourable divergent upper-level pattern will likely be present over Barbados and the Windwards. As a result, cloudy skies, scattered showers and a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms is anticipated across this section of the island chain. However, during the afternoon, some improvement in weather conditions is expected, as the tropical wave moves away from the region.

Barbados forecast: Max/Min Temps: 30/23.

Monday: A surface to low-level shear line will begin affecting Barbados and the southern Windwards, generating occasional cloudiness and scattered light to moderate showers. Elsewhere, a surface to mid-level ridge pattern will be dominant and conditions will likely be fair to partly cloudy with brief isolated showers.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: The tropical wave presently along 65W, will likely trigger cloudy skies, scattered showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and eastern Hispaniola. Elsewhere, a surface to mid-level ridge pattern will likely remain dominant and mostly fair conditions will prevail.

Friday: Conditions are expected to improve over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as the tropical wave continues its westward progression. Meanwhile, the tropical wave will trigger cloudy skies, scattered, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms across Hispaniola, the southernmost Bahamas, Jamaica and eastern Cuba. A weak frontal boundary will likely affect the northern Bahamas, however, this is expected to weaken shortly as a surface to mid-level ridge pattern becomes dominant over the Bahamas and western Cuba.

Saturday: The aforementioned tropical wave will continue to affect Jamaica as it weakens and loses its signature in the wind field. Meanwhile, a surface to mid-level ridge pattern will be the dominant feature across the remainder of the region although surface to low-level confluence may trigger a few brief showers. During the early night, another tropical wave presently along 44W, will begin to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands leading to an increase in cloudiness and shower activity.

Sunday: The previously mentioned tropical wave will be affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands generating cloudy skies along with scattered showers. Elsewhere, a surface to mid-level ridge pattern will be dominant and a few brief showers are likely due to weak surface to low-level confluent pattern.

Monday: Conditions will improve over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as the day progresses. The tropical wave will likely lose it's in the wind field. Nonetheless, cloudy skies along with scattered showers will likely be generated across Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas. Elsewhere, no significant change is anticipated.
Published: 6 pm Thu 17 Jun 2021
Meteorologist Cherise Brathwaite
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