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Eastern Caribbean

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 53.3W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
=======================================================

*********************TROPICAL/ EASTERLY WAVES (2AM/0600UTC) ********************

A tropical wave was analyzed along 78/79W south of 21N moving westward near 15 to 20 knots.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 33W, south of 13N moving westward near 10 to 15 knots.

=======================================================

A surface to mid-level ridge pattern was the dominant feature over Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. However, surface to low level confluence affected the portions of the region. As a result, fair to occasionally cloudy skies were observed as shallow low level cloud patches traversed the island chain triggering brief scattered showers.

Further south, over Trinidad and Tobago the northward migration of the ITCZ produced occasional cloudiness and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity as was confirmed on BMS satellite imagery. Over the Guianas, fair to to occasionally cloudy skies prevailed as weak unstable conditions were present. A few pockets of isolated thunderstorms were observed across the area.

Wind speeds across the region generally ranged from 5 to 17 knots while seas remained slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking near 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

A tropical wave presently along 78/79W at 2AM (0600UTC) generated some scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms across Hispaniola, Jamaica and the eastern Cuba under fair occasionally cloudy skies. Elsewhere, a surface to mid level ridge pattern dominated weather conditions.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: Tropical Storm Josephine centered near 15.3N 52.6W at 2AM (0600UTC) will induce troughing in the low to mid levels across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. This trough will generate a few scattered showers across the region during the day. Model data is indicating that TS Josephine will continue on its current west-northwesterly track away from Barbados and the Windward islands. Due to the presence of the system, a reduction in windspeeds is anticipated across the island chain as the pressure gradient slackens. By nightfall, a surface to low level shearline will be affecting Barbados and the southern Windwards and an increase in shower activity is anticipated. Meanwhile, the outer regions of Tropical storm Josephine is predicted to affect the Leeward during the night and light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast over these islands.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/27.

Saturday: The center of TS Josephine is expected to pass just north of the Leewards islands as it continues on its west-northwestward motion. The aforementioned surface to low level shearline will continue to Barbados and the southern Windwards as well as the northern Windwards. Some scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms can be expected across the region.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 30/26.

Sunday: The previously mentioned surface to low level shearline will continue affecting the region as it begins to affect the Leewards. An improvement across Barbados and the southern Windwards is anticipated by afternoon. A few showers will remain across the Leewards and northern Windwards with some improvement during the night as the shearline moves further westward. In addition, the tropical wave analyzed near 33W at 2AM (0600UTC) will begin to affect Barbados and the southern Windwards after midnight generating a few scattered showers.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/26.

Monday: The aforementioned tropical wave will continue to affect Barbados and the southern Windwards. Model data is however indicating that most of the significant shower activity associated with this tropical wave will remain to the south of Barbados. Meanwhile, another surface to low level shearline will begin to affect the Leewards and northern Windward islands triggering some shower activity.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 30/26
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: The tropical wave presently along 78/79W at 2AM (0600UTC) will continue to affect Jamaica and Cuba spreading some showers as it continues its westward progression. The presense of an upper level low centered over central Cuba may provide some enhancement for deep convective cloud development, hence possible isolated thunderstorms may occur over the area. Elsewhere, a surface to mid-level ridge pattern will be dominant allowing for mostly fair weather conditions.

Saturday: A surface to low-level trough ahead of TS Josephine will affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands triggering a few showers initially. As the day progresses, the outer regions of TS Josephine will affect the previously mentioned islands and eventually the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic during the afternoon into the night generating light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorm activity. Meanwhile, the aforementioned tropical wave will continue to affect western Cuba before weakening and losing its signature. Elsewhere, a surface to mid level ridge pattern will remain dominant.

Sunday: A surface to low level shearline associated with TS Josephine will continue affecting the central Caribbean islands generating similar shower activity. By this time TS Josephine is expected to weaken into a depression and be located well north of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, a surface to low level confluent pattern will trigger brief showers activity. Possible isolated afternoon thunderstorms may occur due to a light wind regime.

Monday: The previously mentioned surface to low level shearline will continue to affect the central Caribbean as it gradually weakens. Elsewhere, no significant change is forecast.
Published: 6 AM Fri 14 Aug 2020
Meteorologist Andrew Daniel
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