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Tropical Weather Discussion


AXNT20 KNHC 122324

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


The center of Tropical Depression Eleven is near 12.7N 45.7W at
12/2100 UTC or 1060 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands
moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A
turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is
expected tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest
of the week. The depression is expected to become a tropical
storm tonight. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-
16N between 37W- 48W.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at and the
Forecast/Advisory at, for more details.


A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 34W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The convection noted in the proximity of the
wave is related to the monsoon trough, and is from 07N-11N
between 28W-34W.

A tropical wave is in the east Caribbean, extending from 02N-23N
with axis near 62W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the northern portion of the wave
affecting Puerto Rico and adjacent waters north of 18N.
Additional activity is also noted along the coast of Venezuela
near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean south of 19N with
axis near 82W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails over the southern portion of the wave
affecting portions of Central America as it interacts with the
Pacific monsoon trough in the area.


The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 17N16W to
to 12N39W. The ITCZ extends west of T.D Eleven near 08N50W to
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection prevail along and south of
the monsoon trough from 08N-10N between 14W-28W.


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 28N91W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
north of 26N and east of 90W and to the south of 26N between 87W-
92W. High level clouds with a few showers reaching the ground
are noted across the Bay of Campeche. Along the eastern Gulf
near the Florida coast, afternoon sea breeze convection has
moved offshore from 25N-28N. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the basin, except the
Bay of Campeche where gentle to moderate easterly winds are

On the forecast, the high pressure across the northern Gulf will
support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the
basin. Fresh to locally strong winds are possible each night in
the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to
local effects.


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Pacific monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of
Colombia westward across Panama and Cost Rica. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N
between 79W-83W.
ASCAT data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the
basin except south of 16N between 70W-80W where fresh to strong
winds are noted.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through late Fri night, with strongest winds
expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
at night. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage
during the next several nights.


Refer to the sections above for details on T.D Eleven and the
tropical wave moving across the southern SW N Atlantic waters.

Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic mainly west of
70W. A persistent surface ridge with a 1022 mb high extending
from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds mainly south of 27N through the
weekend. A surface trough in noted near 32N39W to 25N38W.
Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of the trough

On the forecast, the Tropical Depression Eleven will strengthen
to a tropical storm late tonight. Eleven will move to 14.0N
49.9W Thu afternoon, 15.2N 52.2W Fri morning, 16.6N 54.8W Fri
afternoon, 17.8N 57.3W Sat morning, and 19.1N 59.7W Sat
afternoon. Eleven will change little in intensity as it moves
near 21.5N 64.5W Sun afternoon.