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Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;670278
AXNT20 KNHC 081026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 19W from
03N to 20N moving westward at 5-10 kt. Satellite imagery shows
increasing numerous moderate to convection from 10N to 15N between
the coast of Africa and 22W. This activity also extends inland
Africa for 180 nm. Environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression may
form around the middle to latter part of the week as the wave
moves into the central tropical Atlantic. The current outlook
states that tropical development is not expected within the next
48 hours, but there is a medium chance within 5 days.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
04N to 21N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 11N to 13N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 03N
to 21N moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted within 180 nm east of the wave from
09N to 12N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W from 03N
to 21N moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is underneath
an upper-level trough. This feature is helping to sustain an area
of scattered moderate convection that trails the wave from 14N to
18N between 69W-72W.

The previous western Caribbean tropical wave that was along 85W
is now being described in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 14N28W to 12N40W to 10N50W and to 09N54W, where overnight
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ
to near the coastal border between Venezuela and Guyana. Aside
from convection associated to tropical waves, scattered moderate
to strong convection in clusters is noted from 09N to 14N between
22W-28W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 41W-44W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 38W-41W and within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough
between 48W-50W

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is identified on satellite water vapor imagery
over the SW Gulf of Mexico near 23N95W, while abundant deep layer
moisture is present over the area and a surface trough is analyzed
along 84W from 26N to Apalachee Bay. These factors have been
conducive for sustaining scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity over most of the Gulf, and continue to do so the south of
a line from 29N83W to 27N91W and to 26N99W. The western extension
of the Bermuda high extends to the far NE Gulf. The associated
gradient is maintaining gentle to moderate east-southeast winds
across the basin along with relatively low seas of 2-4 ft.
Slighter higher seas of 3-5 ft are over the southeastern and
north-central Gulf waters.

Expect locally stronger winds and rough seas in and near scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, expect for scattered showers and thunderstorms
to continue over most of the basin through at least this evening
due to aforementioned factors in play. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds will briefly pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night.
A mid to upper-level trough just east of NE Florida will shift to
the NE Gulf today through Tue night and to the north-central and
NW Gulf Wed through Fri enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity
across those sections of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
in the Colombian Basin is supporting moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across the majority of the Caribbean, with the
exception of fresh to strong trade winds over the far south-
central waters near Colombia and over and near the Gulf of
Venezuela. An overnight ASCAT data pass confirmed that strong NE
winds are funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are
6-8 ft from 11N to 18N between 72W-80W, 3-5 ft from 18N to 20N
between 80W-85W and north of 20N between eastern Cuba and 85W,
and 4-6 ft elsewhere except for lower seas of 2-4 ft over the
far northwest section of the basin.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean and over and near the Gulf of Venezuela will
continue pulsing through the forecast period. A tropical wave
currently along 74W will be accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms, gusty winds and rough seas as it continues westward
across the rest of the central Caribbean through this morning,
and across the remainder of the basin through early Wed. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail over the western
Caribbean through the week. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras at night through the week. The next tropical wave will
move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue through Wed
night and across the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri night
enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over those waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high continues to dominate the weather pattern in the
western Atlantic. Gentle east winds increase to moderate to fresh
east winds south of about 25N. Fresh to strong northeast to east
are between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola and over and
near the Windward Passage area as highlighted in an overnight
ASCAT data pass. Seas are generally 4-6 ft throughout the western
Atlantic, except for seas of 5-7 ft between the southeastern
Bahamas and Hispaniola. Marine conditions are more favorable in
the central Atlantic, where gentle easterly winds increase to
moderate speeds south of 23N. Seas are in the general range of 3-6
ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft from 12N to 27N
between 51W-68W as noted in recent altimeter data passes. Moderate
northeast winds dominate the eastern Atlantic, with a fresh to
strong breeze near the coast of Africa and the Canary Islands.
Seas are generally 3-5 ft outside of the area of stronger winds,
where they build to 6-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the
forecast region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail across most of the area through the forecast
period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and
in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late
afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. A mid to upper-
level trough just east of northeast Florida will move inland by
early this afternoon. A surface trough relection extends from
31N76W to 27N78W. These features will continue to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern waters east
of northeast Florida today.

$$
Aguirre