Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;992104
AXNT20 KNHC 222315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Mar 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of area combined with
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to gale force
offshore of Colombia each night and early morning through early
next week. Seas will build to 14 or 15 ft with the strongest
winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W and continues southward to 03N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring from the equator to 06N between
10W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from
the equator to 04N between 20W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1024 mb located over the NE Gulf dominates the
basin supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow, except
W of about 95W where scatterometer data indicate moderate to
fresh SE winds. Seas are in general 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft
over the NE Gulf. There winds are light and variable due to the
presence of the high pressure center. Strong SW winds aloft are
supporting abundant cloudiness with possible showers mainly over
the western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf,
supporting moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the
western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the
eastern basin into early next week. A surface trough will develop
over the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche
nightly through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh to strong winds
over adjacent waters. The next cold front may enter the northern
Gulf late Mon, but will likely dissipate as it moves into the
central and eastern Gulf waters through Tue night. Looking ahead,
high pressure building over the northeastern Gulf in the wake of
the front will support moderate to fresh SE winds and building
seas across the northwest Gulf by Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect offshore Colombia. Please, refer
to the Special Features section above for more information.

A moderate pressure gradient between a surface ridge north of
Greater Antilles and a 1006 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to
strong NE to E trades over the central Caribbean. Seas over
these waters are 7 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, the trades are gentle to
moderate with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft over the NW
Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the central Atlantic to
Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands. Scattered showers are
occurring over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and between
Jamaica and Honduras/Nicaragua.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore of
Colombia and Venezuela will pulse to gale force offshore of
Colombia each night and early morning through early next week.
Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will also pulse in the
Windward Passage into early next week. Fresh to strong SE winds
will extend across the Gulf of Honduras from Sun night through
the middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N53W to 26N64W, then becomes stationary
to central Cuba. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary.
Winds are moderate on either side of the front while seas of 8 to
10 ft in NW swell are noted N of 26N between the front and 72W.
As previously mentioned, a surface trough extends over the central
Atlantic from 27N49W to Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands.
Scattered showers are occurring within about 60 NM of the trough
axis. A 1033 mb high pressure situated over the Azores is helping
to promote generally fresh to strong NE winds N of 12N and E of
30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within
these winds based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades
and moderate to rough seas are evident across the remainder of
the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker
across the Atlantic with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary portion of the front
will dissipate while the cold front shifts east of 55W overnight.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front over the western
Atlantic along 30N. This pattern will support gentle breezes and
slight to moderate seas north of 22N into early next week. The
area of high pressure will shift eastward Mon enabling a weak
cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night. Fresh
to strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola
late Sun through mid week. Looking ahead, another front may move
into waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed.

$$
GR

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