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Tropical Weather Discussion


AXNT20 KNHC 200950

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W
to the Equator along 34W, and continuing westward to the Amazon
Delta near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 n
mi of the boundaries.


A stationary front is located from near Fort Myers, Florida, to
the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is over the Yucatan
Peninsula. South of the front and E of 88W, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection continues. Winds N and W of the front
are moderate and NE, whereas moderate S winds are occurring over
the remainder of the basin. Seas are generally 2 to 5 ft, with
some higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in the southwestern Gulf.

The front will remain stationary through Wed, before reinforcing
cool and dry air pushes the front through most of the basin Thu.
The front will then stall again and dissipate Fri. High pressure
in its wake will shift eastward through Sat night as a cold front
reaches eastern Texas. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop over the NW and central Gulf late Fri through Sat.


Thunderstorms near the coast of Mexico are associated with a
trough over the Yucatan Peninsula, otherwise try conditions
prevail with fresh to strong trades prevailing. The highest winds
are offshore Venezuela and Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will
diminish by late in the week as high pressure over the central
Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of Colombia where
these winds will persist through the week.


A cold front has stalled early this morning from near Bermuda to
West Palm Beach, Florida. Along within 120 nm S of this boundary,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection exists. S of
Bermuda, and N of 29N, some strong SW winds are occurring to the S
and E of the frontal boundary. The remainder of the subtropical
and tropical Atlantic, outside of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, look
tranquil at the moment supported by surface ridging and dry/stable
air. High pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 28N40W. Moderate
to fresh northeast winds prevail north of 04N to 26N across the
tropical Atlantic.

The front will remain stalled into Wed, before moving SE as a
cold front. Thu into Fri this front will again stall from SE of
Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and western Cuba. It will lift back
N as a warm front Sat and Sat night as another cold front
approaches the southeastern U.S. coast preceded by fresh to strong
southerly winds, and with possible scattered showers and