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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20171019 PERIOD: Evening

Eastern Caribbean

...ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 08N35W to 16N36W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave remains low-amplitude and coincides with 700 mb troughing between 29W-36W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 12N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N-17N between 28W-38W.
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********************************************DISCUSSION***********************************

The Atlantic high pressure system remained dominant across Barbados, the Leewards and the northern Windwards today. Generally fair skies with brief isolated showers were reported across these islands. The thick layer of Saharan dust haze remained highly concentrated across the region significantly reducing horizontal visibility across most islands. Here in Barbados, a few showers early into the night from a low to mid level shearline, gave way to generally fair skies with only the odd brief isolated shower from overnight through to daytime. Winds remained generally brisk across the region with occasional gusts as the strong high pressure system maintained a tightened pressure gradient.
Meanwhile contrasting conditions occurred across the extreme southern Windward islands, from Grenada southward, as a low to mid level shearline feature (mentioned previously) affected the area. Generally cloudy skies were reported mainly across Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago and the coastal sections of Venezuela due to this shearline. Scattered showers, continuous rain and isolated thunderstorms were present across the extreme southern Windward islands throughout the day as was evident from BMS Radar Composite imagery. An upper level trough positioned with its eastern flank zonally oriented across the extreme southern Windwards and the Guianas enhanced a few showers across the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. The eastern flank of this same upper level trough enhanced some I.T.C.Z activity just north of the Guianas, allowing for partly cloudy conditions across the Guianas.
With the strong winds across the region, seas remained moderate to rough in open water with swells peaking to 3.0m. A high wind and small craft warning remains in effect.
Western Caribbean

....CARIBBEAN TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES....

An easterly wave extends from 07N65W to 16N65W moving W at 5-10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N- 16N between 58W-65W.

A tropical wave extends from 08N72W to 18N71W moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-19N between 66W-72W.
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***************************************DISCUSSION******************************************
Across the central Caribbean, the Easterly wave and Tropical wave along 65W and 72W respectively, generated some scattered convection across the Greater Antilles as they progressed westward. A frontal boundary across the Bahamas produced cloudy skies with some scattered shower activity. The eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough generated some moderate convection across parts of Nicaragua and the southern Central American states.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

The Atlantic high pressure system will remain dominant across the Leewards and the northern Windwards tonight and throughout the remainder of the week (through until Friday). Winds will remain brisk with hazy conditions during this time period. With the generally dry environmental conditions, mostly fair to partly cloudy skies with the odd brief isolated showers are anticipated across the said areas. Meanwhile, the low to mid level shearline will continue to affect the southern Windwards for the remainder of the week, occasionally cloudy skies with scattered showers, some of which may be moderate to heavy, periods of rain and possible isolated thunderstorms will remain likely across the southern most parts of the region.

By Saturday, the low to mid level shearline is expected to move northwards from over the equatorial regions to as far north as Barbados and St. Vincent. This feature may initiate some scattered showers across Barbados during this time. Trinidad and Tobago and the equatorial regions will observe a slight improvement as this low to mid level shearline drifts northwards. Partly cloudy skies with the possibility of showers will remain likely early Sunday across the central Windward islands, whilst the high pressure system will remain dominant across the Leewards and the northern Windward islands.

Some scattered shower activity may remain likely across Barbados and the southern Windwards as a Tropical wave (along 36W) moves into the area late Sunday into Monday. By this time an upper level trough is expected to favourably position itself across the region, and may add some isolated enhancement for shower activity.

As the upper level trough remains anchored across the region Monday into Tuesday, conditions will become gradually more unstable and more favourable to convective activity across the region. Throughout this forecast period (Friday through to Monday) conditions will remain generally breezy with a fluctuation in the concentration of Saharan dust haze across the region.
Western Caribbean Outlook

The Easterly wave and Tropical waves along 67W and 75W respectively may produce some brief shower activity across the Western Caribbean as they progress westward over the next few days. However by Saturday, a high pressure system is expected to build across the Greater Antilles initiating generally fair to partly cloudy skies. Winds are expected to become brisk across the central Caribbean over the weekend as the high pressure system builds across the central Caribbean over the weekend period.
Meteorologist Tia Browne