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Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20190526 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

***********************TROPICAL WAVES at 0600Z/2:00am (LST)**************************

A tropical wave has just departed from the western African coast. It is located along 22W south of 16N moving west at 10 - 15 knots.

A tropical wave is along 51/52W south of 14N moving west at 15 - 20 knots.


Barbados and the central islands in the island chain recorded generally fair skies during the night , while observations indicated an extensive band of cirrus clouds traversing the island chain. Over Trinidad and Tobago partly cloudy to cloudy skies were recorded along with some scattered showers and sessions of rain . Tobago reported 13.0mm 06z ,plus 3mm at 00z . While Antigua in the north reported 29.0mm at 00z , and an additional 4.0mm up to 06z . Over the Leewards , a weak surface to low level shearline maintained its presence by generating partly cloudy skies with some scattered showers .
Winds across the region were ranged from 3 to 17 knots over the Windward islands. Seas remain slight in open water with swells peaking near 1.5m.
Western Caribbean

After some afternoon showers and a few scattered thunderstorms mainly over central and western Puerto Rico , partly cloudy skies were recorded during the night . Most of the islands of the Greater Antilles recorded fair to partly cloudy skies as a surface to mid level ridge pattern remained in control . A dense canopy of high level cloud continued to flow into the Central And Western Caribbean . A low pressure over Costa Rica continues to generate some deep convection over that area . Sangster Airport in Jamaica reported some thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Airport but no precipitation .
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Sunday: Model data is indicating a slight reduction in low level moisture across the northern portion of the island chain allowing for an improvement in weather conditions as the moisture associated with the surface to low level shearline repositions further to the northwest. However, this will be shortlived as a weak low level trough announces its arrival after sunset. In addition to this, elevated mid level moisture will result in cloudy skies across the central Windwards. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from the previous day is expected.

Monday: The weak low level trough is expected to maintain some weak instability over the northern half of the island chain which will result in occasionally cloudy skies and a few brief showers. The remainder of the chain will experienced mostly fair conditions. However, a tropical wave will drift across the southern Windward islands producing a few scattered showers during the late evening hours. Barbados will be on the northern fringe of this activity and could receive some showers as well.

Tuesday: The tropical wave will continue to affect the extreme southern Windward islands producing a few scattered showers. Over the Leewards and northern Windward islands, confluence on the southwestern periphery of the surface to low level ridge pattern will generate cloudy skies and some brief shower activity. While that is happening, residual clouds originating from deep convection over South America will continue to be advected over the central Windwards, Barbados included.

Wednesday: As the tropical wave moves further westward, an improvement in the weather conditions is anticipated for Barbados and the southern Windwards. On the other hand, the low level confluent pattern will maintain showers and cloudiness across the Leewards and northern Windwards.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: There is an area of low pressure just west of the border between Costa Rica and Nicaragua. This low has a surface to mid level trough associated with it that extends northeasterly across Jamaica and Hispaniola. As a result, moderate to heavy showers, rain and possible thunderstorms are likely under generally cloudy skies as a very favorable upper level environment remains in place. Cuba and Puerto Rico can expect a few showers as low level moisture lingers across that area while the Bahamas will experience fair weather conditions under the dominance of a deep layered high pressure system just east of the US seaboard.

Sunday: Model data is showing similar conditions across the Greater Antilles as the trough continues to linger across Hispaniola and Jamaica. Meanwhile, the surface to mid level western Atlantic high pressure system will allow for fair conditions to remain over the Bahamas.

Monday: The large area of low pressure across Nicaragua and Costa Rica coupled with deep layered moisture and instability will continue favour moderate to strong convection. Over the Greater Antilles, surface to low level troughing in combination with an increase of deep layered moisture will generate unsettled weather conditions. Meanwhile, the Bahamas will continue to experience fair weather conditions under the dominance of the high pressure system.

Tuesday: No significant change in weather conditions from previous day is anticipated.

Wednesday: No significant change in weather conditions from previous day is anticipated.
Meteorologist David Best