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| Barbados Meteorological Services Charnocks ChCh Weather Discussion http://www.BarbadosWeather.org Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products. DATE: 20260917 PERIOD: Morning |
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Eastern Caribbean ********************** TROPICAL WAVES AT (0600UTC/ 2 AM) ********************** A tropical wave was analyzed near 68W south of 21N, moving west at 15 - 20 knots A tropical wave was introduced near 30W south of 15N, moving west at 10 - 15 knots ************************************************************************************** A 1027 mb (at 170600 UTC) surface-to-low-level North Central Atlantic high-pressure system was rebuilding across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. However, a surface-to-low-level shear line embedded within the eastern flow produced scattered light to moderate showers across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. However, showers and thunderstorms were more numerous over the central and northern Windward Islands. In the early part of the night, across Trinidad and Tobago and the Guianas, a surface to mid-level ridge pattern was the dominant feature, allowing for mostly fair weather. However, just after midnight, a surface to low-level confluent pattern moved over Trinidad and Tobago, producing cloudy skies and occasional scattered light to moderate showers. Winds across the region were light to moderate, with a maximum sustained wind of 17 knots here at Charnocks in Christ Church and 20 knots in St. Lucia. Seas remained slight to moderate in open water, with swell heights ranging between 1.5m and 2.0m. |
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Western Caribbean Unsettled weather conditions were encountered across the western and northwestern Caribbean due to the presence of numerous synoptic features. Namely, a tropical wave moving over Puerto Rico. A stationary boundary over the northern Bahamas. A broad mid-to upper-level trough from North Carolina extending southward across Cuba, and then southwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula. Lastly, a surface-to-low-level confluent pattern across the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. |
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Eastern Caribbean Outlook Today: A 1027 mb (at 171200 UTC) surface to low-level North Central Atlantic high-pressure system will rebuild across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. In addition, some drying out of the lower to mid-level atmosphere will be noticeable across the region. As a result, a mix of clear skies and clouds with a few isolated light showers is anticipated. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 32/24. Friday: A weak low-level trough will move over Barbados, the southern and central Windward Islands, reducing wind speeds to around 10 knots. However, with the relatively dry atmosphere over the region, mostly dry and stable weather conditions are forecast. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 32/24. Saturday: A mid-to upper-level trough oriented NE through SW across the Leewards and northern Windwards is likely to produce partly cloudy skies with a few intermittent showers. Elsewhere, surface to low-level convergence on the western periphery of the ridge pattern could trigger a few passing showers under fair to partly cloudy skies. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 32/24. Sunday: No significant change in weather conditions compared to the previous day is expected. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 32/24. |
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Western Caribbean Outlook Today: Unsettled weather conditions are forecast across the western and northwestern Caribbean due to numerous synoptic features. The tropical wave is forecast to move westward across Hispaniola, a broad mid-to upper-level trough from North Carolina extending southward across Cuba, and then southwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, a surface-to-low-level confluent pattern across the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. The aforementioned tropical wave is forecast to weaken over the southern Bahamas. At the same time, the previously mentioned upper-level trough will drift westward across the northeastern Gulf. As a consequence, a surface to low-level northwestern ridge pattern will rebuild across the western Caribbean, allowing for some easing of the unsettled weather conditions. Saturday: Even though a northwestern surface to low-level ridge pattern will be dominant across the western Caribbean, the combination of a confluent pattern along the Greater Antilles and deep-layered moisture is likely to produce partly cloudy to cloudy skies with scattered light to moderate showers and possible thunderstorms. Sunday: No significant change in weather conditions compared to the previous day is expected. |
| Meteorologist David Harding |