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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20170821 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

...ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa extends from 21N21W to 10N21W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is in a moist area based on TPW imagery and has a well pronounced 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
meets the monsoon trough from 10N-14N between 20W-24W. A 1010 mb low is analyzed ahead of the wave near 14N25W, and it is forecast to move westward in tandem with the wave over the next 24-48 hours. Saharan dust is noted W of the wave environment.

A tropical wave extends from 19N51W to 10N55W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is well depicted on the TPW animation and 700 mb streamline analysis. The northern portion of the wave has fractured and is analyzed as a surface trough extending from
24N50W to 20N51W. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave itself, however, scattered moderate convection is associated with the surface trough from 20N-24N between 47W-52W.

=========================================================

Mixed weather conditions prevailed across the Eastern Caribbean during the night.
The Leewards enjoyed mostly fair conditions as a few low level cloud fragments traversed the area. Further south, it was a different weather scenario across the northern Windwards due to lingering instability associated with the tail end of the departed tropical wave with its axis around 68W in the Caribbean Sea. As a consequence, a band of clouds passed over the islands which resulted in cloudy skies, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Here in Barbados and the central Windwards, fair to partly cloudy skies and slightly hazy conditions prevailed as a weak high pressure system dominated the weather.

Meanwhile, there was a progressive reduction in the convective activity during the early part of the night that was linked to a passing low level perturbation within the vicinity of Trinidad and Tobago. However as dawn approached, there was a resurgence of the convective activity with some isolated thunderstorms being observed across Grenada and Tobago. Further to the south, partly cloudy skies prevailed over the Guianas apart from a few isolated convective cells over the interior districts.

Winds across the region ranged from calm conditions to 15 knots. Seas remained slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking to 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends along 78W S of 21N moving W at 15-20 kt. The remnant circulation of Harvey is analyzed as a 1007 mb low pressure along the wave axis near 15N78W. Scattered showers arewithin 120 nm of the wave axis. Gradual development of this system is still possible through Monday night while it moves west-northwestward near the coast of Honduras, and it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper- level winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize,
and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. There is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.

...CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is positioned near 68W, south of 21N. It is moving west at 15-20 knots.

A tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, and the Eastern Pacific, from 21N88W to 10N89W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Subtle troughing is noted on 700 mb streamline analysis, and abundant moisture is observed on the SSMI TPW animation. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over El Salvador.


==========================================================
During the night, the shearline feature that previously generated a few showers across the Lesser Antilles, made its entrance in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Further to the west, a tropical wave around 67W in tandem with a trough system over the Mona Passage, generated cloudy skies with some showers and isolated thunderstorm activity overnight across the northern coasts of Hispaniola. Some isolated areas of convection linked to this wave were noted on satellite imagery in the open waters of the central Caribbean Basin.

Meanwhile, the large mass of convection associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey remained over open waters. However some convection was nonetheless generated over the Cayman Islands and to a lesser extent, Jamaica.

An upper level low maintained some cloudiness and shower activity over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook


Satellite imagery has indicated that most of the convection associated with the area of low pressure, which has now been degenerated into a trough associated with the Tropical wave along 52W is still anticipated to detach from the wave . However, as the Tropical wave traverses the region today, some occasional cloudiness and showers may nonetheless be generated with the possibility of a few isolated thunderstorms over the central Windwards.

An induced trough feature extending south-westward from the area of low pressure (mentioned previously) across the northern portions of the region, will generate some weak instability across that area on Tuesday. With a light wind regime present, some localized shower activity is possible across the Leewards and the northern Windwards.

From Tuesday, the axis of the Tropical wave mentioned previously will progress westwards into the Caribbean Sea. As it does so, a high pressure system will re-establish itself across Barbados and the southern Windwards. Fair to partly cloudy skies with a few brief passing showers are anticipated across Barbados and the Windwards as models are indicating a drying out of the mid level environment, with moisture being confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere.

The ridge of high pressure is expected to be dominant across the entire region for the remainder of the forecast period (Wednesday through to Thursday), thus generally fair to partly cloudy skies with occasional brief shower activity is anticipated. Model analysis indicates however, that a mid to upper level trough taking up residence to the north of the island chain from Wednesday may trigger some light convection mainly across the Leewards and the northern Windwards.
Western Caribbean Outlook

The islands of Jamaica, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands will tremain under cloudy skies, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey continue on its westward track across the Caribbean Sea.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will also prevail as a tropical wave crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. This activity will receive some favourable support from an upper level low, stationed over the central Gulf of Mexico.

A trough system over the Greater Antilles will continue to generate pockets of moderate convective activity across Hispaniola, the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba as it continues on its westward track. This activity will also be enhanced by a mid to upper level low positioned over the southern Bahamas. Unstable conditions will continue across the western Caribbean towards Wednesday as the tropical wave (previously analyzed along 54W) takes up residence.
Meteorologist Brian Murray