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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20171121 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

Barbados, the northern and central Windwards and the Leeward islands experienced mostly fair skies during the night as the high pressure system dominated the weather pattern across the area. In addition, a very dry low to mid level atmosphere inhibited any significant cloud development and as a result rainfall reported was very little or none at all.
Over the southern Windwards, a surface to low level shearline, generated some cloudiness and scattered showers across the area and this was evident on BMS Radar composite imagery.
Further south over the Guianas, mostly fair weather conditions were encountered. Winds were predominantly easterly and ranged between calm to 15 knots. While sea conditions remained slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking at near 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

Two surface troughs one situated across the Windward Passage and extending southwards across central America and the other located between the Mona Passage and extending northeasterly over the western Atlantic generated lots of cloudy skies scattered showers and thunderstorms from western Puerto Rico to across central Cuba. Over the south western Caribbean also experienced similar conditions. While western Cuba and Mexico encountered mostly fair weather conditions.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Little change is expected in the weather conditions across Barbados and the island chain as the high pressure system will remain dominant feature across the region for the remainder of the day. Model data is indicating a surface to low level shearline affecting the extreme southern Windward islands, with an increase in low level moisture which in turn is generating some instability and scattered showers to most of the countries south of Barbados.
Wednesday: No expected change in weather over the central and southern Windward islands. However, some convergence on the southern periphery of the high pressure system will bring an increase in cloudiness over the Leewards and northern Windward islands. As a result some scattered showers can be expected and this will continue through Thursday morning. Around this time a surface to low level trough will pass over the southern half of the island chain producing an increase in cloudiness and a few scattered showers. These conditions are expected to last to the end of the forecast period ( Saturday morning). What is noticeable during this forecast period, is the very dry mid levels which will inhibit any significant cloud development and to some extent restrict prolonged shower activity.
Western Caribbean Outlook

The surface trough that has been drifting westward across the central Caribbean, has begun to affect and will continue to affect Haiti, eastern and central Cuba, eastern and central Bahamas, Jamaica, the Cayman islands and also as far south as Panama for the remainder of today as it axis lies across the Windward Passage. This feature is being enhance by an upper level diffluent pattern and will continue to generate cloudiness and scattered showers across the area. As this trough weakens early Tuesday morning, it will be replace by a convergence pattern, on the southwestern side of a high pressure system across the same area and this will continue to produce similar weather conditions through to the end of the forecast period ( Saturday morning).
Meteorologist David Harding