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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20191114 PERIOD: Evening

Eastern Caribbean

A surface to low-level shearline affected Barbados, the northern Windward and southern Leeward islands. This system generated partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies with occasional showers mainly over the northern Windwards. Here in Barbados, fair to partly cloudy skies were observed with only brief isolated showers. Trinidad and Tobago experienced some localized activity during the afternoon. Over the northern Leewards, a weak surface to mid-level ridge was the dominant feature.

Over the Guianas, conditions were fair to partly cloudy with a few scattered showers. However during the afternoon some isolated thunderstorm activity was observed.

Winds across the region ranged from calm to moderate, peaking near 18 knots. Seas were slight to moderate in open water with swells from 1.5 to 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

A surface to low level trough extending from the Gulf of Mexico southward over the Yucatan Peninsula, generated a few isolated showers and thunderstorms over some parts of the northernmost Bahamas and the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak surface to low level trough was present across Haiti which generated occasional cloudiness and showers. Elsewhere a surface to mid level ridge pattern dominated conditions across the majority of the basin, with mainly fair to partly cloudy skies and a few isolated showers.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: The weak surface to low-level shearline will drift southward, spreading some scattered showers over the southern windwards over night. Deep convective activity isn't expected as the mid- to upper levels remain relatively dry and subsident. Weather conditions are expected to improve over the southern Leewards and northern windwards as a weak surface to mid-level ridge becomes the dominant feature.

Friday: The weak surface to low-level shearline will continue to affect the southern Windwards. Meanwhile by evening, another surface to low-level shearline ahead of the trough system currently analyzed along 53W, is expected to develop over the northern islands. This feature will likely trigger some scattered showers over the area.

Saturday: The surface to low-level shearline preceeding the trough system, will continue to affect the southern leewards and northern windward islands producing some scattered showers. However, a subsident, dry mid to upper level environment will continue to inhibit deep convective activity. Overnight, the surface to low level portion of the deep layered trough to the east of the islands chain, is expected to detach and propagate westward towards the eastern Caribbean.

Sunday: The aforementioned trough system is expected to be affecting the region. Analysis is indicating the majority of shower activity to be over the Leewards and northern Windward islands. Deep convective activity will continue to be inhibited due to the dry and subsident mid to upper levels capping moisture to the lower levels. Wind speeds are expected to generally light at this time, thus with adequate low level moisture and instability there is a slight chance of localized activity.

Monday: The surface to low level trough system will continue to affect the region with the majority of showers expected to remain over the Leewards. As the aforementioned trough progresses westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea, a surface to low level ridge will gradually build across the region. A surface to low level confluent pattern along the south western periphery of the building ridge may generate some showers across the extreme southern windwards and Trinidad and Tobago.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: Over the Yucatan Peninsula, the surface to low level trough will continue to generate light to moderate convection. The surface to low level trough previously over Haiti, is expected to slowly drift westward with improving conditions anticipated across Hispaniola. Elsewhere, a surface to mid level ridge pattern will continue to dominate.

Friday: The surface to low level trough feature over the Yucatan will eventually merge with a developing frontal system moving off the south eastern U.S seaboard. This in turn will spread some showers across the northern most Bahamian islands and western Cuba as the front progresses eastward. Meanwhile, the surface to low level trough previously over Haiti, is expected to weaken as if drifts westward across the western Caribbean Sea. The Virgin islands westward to Hispaniola will be under the influence of a deep layered ridge pattern Only isolated showers are expected as mid to upper level conditions remain suppressive of significant convective development.

Saturday: The frontal boundary is expected to spread showers and thunderstorms across central Bahamas, central Cuba southwestward to Honduras, as the feature progresses eastward across the western Caribbean Sea. As this occurs, a more stable, dry and suppressive air mass is expected to build across the westernmost Bahamas islands, western parts of Cuba and much of the Yucatan. Over the central Caribbean, a north easterly to east north easterly surface to mid level wind flow ahead of a deep layered trough to the east of the eastern Caribbean, is expected to push a series of weak shearline features across Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands.

Sunday: Relatively stable and drier conditions will continue to spread across the Bahamas, Cuba and the Yucatan as the frontal boundary pushes eastward weakening in the process. The eastward progression of the front will bring some convection across Hispaniola and Jamaica. Meanwhile, the axis of a surface to low level trough moving westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea, will eventually bring some showers to the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico.

Monday: Not much change in weather conditions is expected across the western Caribbean. However the fontal boundary will continue to weaken and stall in the vicinity of the Windward passage south-westwards to central America. This will maintain the possibility for convection in that area. Over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the surface to low level trough may continue to initiate some shower activity.
Meteorologist Tia Browne