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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20181115 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

The surface to mid level Atlantic high pressure system dominated the weather conditions across the eastern Caribbean during the night. As a result, fair to occasionally cloudy skies with a few scattered showers were observed mainly over the Leeward islands, while over Barbados and the Windward islands a few spotty isolated showers were encountered. As the pressure gradient tightened over the region, an increase in wind speeds were noticeable ranging from 10 to 24 knots.
Further south, over Trinidad and Tobago and the Guianas, a surface to low level confluent pattern will generated some instability and also an increase in moisture from the surface to the upper levels which in turn produced scattered showers, periods of rains and some convective activity.

Marine conditions remained moderate to rough in open water, with swells peaking at near 3.0m.
Western Caribbean

A deep layered trough system with an associated upper level low positioned over the Windward Passage, with the trough extending southward across Colombia and Panama, generated cloudy skies with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across these areas. Surface to low level moisture on the south western periphery of the central Atlantic high pressure system also spread a few scattered showers across the Bahamas. A frontal system with a trailing shearline exiting the Gulf of Mexico produced unsettled weather conditions across western Cuba and southward over open waters. While the monsoon trough maintained unsettled weather conditions over Panama and Costa Rica.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: The surface to mid level Atlantic high pressure system will re-establish itself across the eastern Caribbean. A surface to low level confluence pattern will form on the southern periphery of the high pressure system resulting in a few scattered showers over the Leeward islands. While over Barbados and the Windward islands, a slow drying out of the low to mid levels will allow for a gradual improvement in weather conditions. A few scattered showers are still likely. A reduction in visibility is likely as a layer of Saharan dust remains over the area. Meanwhile, over the extreme southern Windward islands, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana and Suriname, a surface to low level confluent pattern will generate some instability and also an increase in moisture from the surface to the upper levels which is anticipated to produce scattered moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms over these parts. Some flooding is likely over Trinidad and Tobago as the ground is fairly saturated.

Friday: The surface to mid level Atlantic high pressure system will be dominant across the eastern Caribbean. Across Barbados and the Windward islands, model data is indicating relatively dry and stable conditions at the mid to upper levels, which will inhibit any significant cloud development. Wind speeds are expected to be moderate to strong ranging from about 18 to 28 knots as the pressure gradient strengthens. While over the Leeward islands a few scattered showers will be expected as the confluent pattern remains over the area.

Saturday: No significant change in weather conditions from previous day is expected.

Sunday: The surface to mid level Atlantic high pressure system will remain dominant across the eastern Caribbean. However, surface to low level moisture embedded in the predominantly easterly trades will spread a few off and on showers across the Windward islands. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from previous day is expected.
Model data is indicating the Saharan dust layer to remain across the area for the next few days.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: A deep layered trough system with an associated upper level low positioned over the Windward Passage, with the trough extending southward across Colombia and Panama, will continue to generate cloudy skies, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across these areas. Surface to low level moisture on the south western periphery of the central Atlantic high pressure system will generate some showers across the Bahamas, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Also a frontal system with a trailing shearline exiting the Gulf of Mexico will bring unsettled weather conditions across western Cuba and southward over open waters.

Friday: The combination of the aforementioned frontal boundary moving over northern and central Bahamas along with the westward drifting surface to mid level trough will maintain unsettled weather conditions over the central and western Caribbean and also across the southwestern Caribbean. Conditions over Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands are expected to improve as the day progresses.

Saturday: No significant change in weather conditions from previous day is expected. Some low level moisture across the eastern Greater Antilles is likely to spread a few showers over the area.

Sunday: Some drying out at the mid to upper levels over central and western Caribbean will maintain relatively fair weather conditions. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from previous day is expected.
Meteorologist David Harding