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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20170625 PERIOD: Evening

Eastern Caribbean

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far east Atlc with the axis extending
along 23W/24W south of 14N and is moving W at 10 kt.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with the axis extending
from 16N35W to 03N42W and is moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is
easily identifiable on the latest visible satellite imagery.
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are located in the area from
05N to 10N between 34W and 41W.
==========================================================
During the early morning after daybreak here in Barbados and across the eastern Caribbean, skies were generally cloudy with some scattered showers still occurring across the region due to the tropical wave that pass over the area during the night and early morning. BMS Radar Composite Imagery depicted shower activity across the entire chain, however the more intense showers spread over the Grenadines, St.Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe. Some rainfall figures recorded across the region at 2pm for 6 hour period are as followed, V.C Bird Int'l airport in Antigua 10mm, Canefield in Dominica 16mm, Melville Hall also in Dominica 26mm, Hewanorra Int'l airport in St.Lucia 33mm, Guadeloupe 38mm, while Barbados, Grenada, Piarco and Crown Point all recorded 2mm.
By afternoon, the wave had drifted further west over the eastern Caribbean allowing for a gradual improvement in weather conditions, as the surface to mid level Atlantic high pressure system began to re-establish itself across the region. Skies became mostly fair with a decrease in shower activity here in Barbados and across the region. Also noticeable was an increase in wind speeds (around 25 knots) across Barbados and the Windwards as a surface to low level wind surge traverse the area.
Further south, over Trinidad and Tobago and the Guianas, skies remained partly cloudy to cloudy with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms as a result of the above-mentioned tropical wave and a very active ITCZ.
Easterly to east southeasterly breezes averaged 5 to 10 knots across the northern islands while stronger 15 to 25knot winds were recorded over Barbados and the other southern islands. These assisted in maintaining wave heights in the vicinity of 1.5 to 2.5m.
Western Caribbean

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A well-defined tropical wave is located over the Lesser Antilles
with the axis extending along 61W/62W south of 19N and is moving
W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral
wind shear. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are located from
11N-17N between 60W-65W.

A tropical wave is located in the central Caribbean with the
axis extending along 75W south of 20N to inland Colombia and is
moving west at 15 knots. Water vapor imagery indicates that the
wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear and convection is
minimal.
==========================================================
Tropical wave presently over the eastern Caribbean generated some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Venezuela coastlines during the day. Also a tropical wave near 75W produce a few scattered showers across Haiti and eastern Cuba. However, model data showed a very dry and subsident pattern over the Greater Antilles during the day. While the high pressure system was the controlling factor over the western Caribbean area. Over the Bahamas skies were mostly clear as the high pressure system also dominated this area.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

The surface to mid level Atlantic high pressure system will re-establish itself over Barbados and the eastern Caribbean for the remainder of the day and through to Tuesday midday. Mostly fair weather conditions will prevail during this time as models show a drying in the lower levels of the atmosphere. An occasional off and on shower will not be ruled out, however, rainfall totals will remain minimal as some Saharan dust hovers over the region inhibiting cloud development. A wind surge will support stronger 20 to 25 knots surface breezes across Barbados and the southern islands over the next day or two until by late Tuesday the presence of the next tropical wave near 41W will be on our doorsteps. Some showers and a few periods of rain are anticipated from this system.
Western Caribbean Outlook

The broad low level high pressure system will continue to be the dominant feature across the central and western Caribbean area over the next few days. Model data is showing the wave near 75W to weaken during the next 24 hours, however a surface to low level trough will approach the Windward Passage late Monday night through Tuesday morning producing scattered showers and some periods of rain over Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba and some sections of the Bahamas.
Further south, tropical wave near 62W will continue to journey west, affecting the Venezuela coastlines and eventually the ABC islands.
Meteorologist David Harding