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| Barbados Meteorological Services Charnocks ChCh Weather Discussion http://www.BarbadosWeather.org Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products. DATE: 20260616 PERIOD: Evening |
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Eastern Caribbean ****************** TROPICAL WAVES AT 1800 UTC / 2 PM LST ************************** Wave # 15 A tropical wave was analyzed near 67W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 knots. Wave # 16 A tropical wave was repositioned near 51W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 knots. Outlook: Time/Date: ---00Z/17----12Z/17--00Z/18--12Z/18--00Z/19--12Z/19--00Z/20--12Z/20 Wave Position:--54W-----56/57W---60W---- Wave # 17 A tropical wave was analyzed near 47/48W, south of 11N, moving westward at around 20 knots. Outlook: Time/Date: ---00Z/17----12Z/17--00Z/18--12Z/18--00Z/19--12Z/19--00Z/20--12Z/20 Wave Position:--49W----52/53W--55W-----58W----61W-----64W---- Wave # 18 A tropical wave was analyzed near 27/28W, south of 10N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 knots. Outlook: Time/Date: ---00Z/17----12Z/17--00Z/18--12Z/18--00Z/19--12Z/19--00Z/20--12Z/20 Wave Position:--28W---32/33W----36W----40W----45W-----50W------54W-----58W ********************************************************************************************* A surface to mid-level ridge pattern was dominant across much of the eastern Caribbean. However, with adequate low-level moisture, skies were partly cloudy with occasional light showers. Over the southern Windwards, low-level convergence along with a favorable upper-level environment generated cloudy skies with shower activity more prominent compared to the northern islands. Here in Barbados, a mix of sunshine and clouds was observed, with shower activity occurring more so during the afternoon. A few of these showers were moderate, occurring mainly over northern parishes. Rainfall accumulations from stations across the island yielded 19.4mm in St. Michael. 6.8mm in St. Thomas and 4.2mm in St. Joseph over the past 12 hours. Here at Charnocks, 2.0mm of rainfall was recorded up to 6 pm. Farther south, the ITCZ extended into the coast of the Guianas, facilitating moderate to heavy convection along coastal regions. During the afternoon, this activity spread inland with thunderstorms developing over interior sectors. Winds across the region ranged from 10 to 20 knots with moderate sea swells of 1.5m to 2.0m in open water. |
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Western Caribbean *******************************SIGNIFICANT FEATURES*************************************** Potential Tropical Cyclone One NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 97.6W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES ************************************************************************************************ Over the Bahamas, skies were fair as a ridge pattern dominated. With the ridge also dominant across the Greater Antilles, weather conditions were partly cloudy. However, during the afternoon, an upper divergent pattern supported isolated thunderstorm development over parts of Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. The tropical wave analyzed near 67W continued westward over the southern Caribbean, affecting coastal areas of Venezuela. |
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Eastern Caribbean Outlook Tonight: Analysis indicates a low-level trough traversing the Leewards and northern Windward Islands. Earlier Satellite imagery of this feature showed partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies. A marginally favorable upper-level pattern may support a few moderate showers. As for Barbados and the remainder of the region, an approaching tropical wave (51W) will bring occasional cloudiness with similar light to moderate showers. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 27 / 24. Wednesday: The tropical wave will affect Barbados and the Windward Islands, where interaction with an upper trough should facilitate cloudy skies and scattered light to moderate showers. While improvement is likely over the northern portions of the region overnight, another tropical wave (47/48W) will approach the southern Windwards, maintaining a generally unstable environment. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 30 / 24. Thursday: Throughout the day, the tropical wave will affect Barbados and the southern Windwards. Support from an upper trough over the region and a mid-level trough should allow for cloudy skies, moderate to heavy showers, and a few isolated thunderstorms. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 30 / 23. Friday: The wave will progress westwards, with a reduction in shower activity expected for the southern Windwards. However, cloudy conditions will persist as the mid-level trough and upper-level environment remain generally unstable. This unstable pattern across the region will be maintained as the tropical wave currently along 27/28W approaches the region. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 30 / 23. Saturday: Unstable conditions will prevail across the region throughout the day. This is due to the tropical wave interacting with the mid to upper-level environment. Cloudy skies, with some moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms, are possible. This activity should be more prominent over the Windward Islands, with mainly light showers expected over the Leewards. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 30 / 23. |
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Western Caribbean Outlook Tonight: The tropical wave along 67W will continue westwards across the southern Caribbean. The synopsis will remain the high-pressure system. However, the upper trough over the central Caribbean may support a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday: The wave will move into the southwestern Caribbean, where interaction with the monsoon and the upper-level environment will support enhanced convection. During the afternoon, the upper trough and low in the central Caribbean will support showers and thunderstorm development over some of the islands. Overnight, the tropical wave along 51W will begin to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Thursday: The wave (51W) will continue to affect Puerto Rico and Hispaniola throughout the day. Elsewhere, isolated afternoon thunderstorm development may occur over parts of Cuba and Jamaica. As for the Bahamas, a ridge pattern should maintain fair to partly cloudy skies. Friday: As the wave progresses further westward (51W), convection will spread across Haiti and Jamaica. Similar weather conditions with afternoon thunderstorms are likely over Cuba. A ridge pattern will rebuild over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Saturday: The tropical wave will move into the central American region, where interaction with an upper low will cluster convection in that area. Similar weather conditions to the previous days will prevail over much of the Greater Antilles. Meanwhile, activity associated with a frontal boundary is forecast to begin affecting the northern Bahamas Islands. |
| Meteorologist Tia Browne |