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| Barbados Meteorological Services Charnocks ChCh Weather Discussion http://www.BarbadosWeather.org Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products. DATE: 20250710 PERIOD: Evening |
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Eastern Caribbean ********************** TROPICAL WAVES AT (1800UTC/ 2 PM LST) ********************** A tropical wave was analyzed near 58W south of 13N, moving west at 5 to 10 knots. Tropical wave outlook (18Z/10) Time/Date---------00Z/11-----12Z/11---00Z/12--- Wave Position-----62W--------66W------- ********************************************************************************************* Surface to low-level instability persisted across the southern Windward Islands today, generating occasionally cloudy skies and light to moderate showers. A few isolated thunderstorms were evident from GLM data in the vicinity of Grenada and Trinidad. Across Barbados, skies were partly cloudy to cloudy with occasional light showers that resulted in rainfall accumulations of 3.4mm in St. Lucy, 2.2mm in St. peter and a maximum of 1.8mm in St. Michael. 5.1mm was recorded up to 6 pm here at Charnocks, Christ Church. Over the Leewards and the northern Windward Islands, the Atlantic high-pressure system dominated weather conditions with fair skies and a light isolated passing shower reported throughout the day. With the ITCZ extending into the Guianas, skies were partly cloudy with thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Winds were easterly to east-southeasterly, ranging from 15 to 25 knots. Seas were moderate in open water with swells peaking near 2.5m in open water. The eastern Caribbean on a whole experienced slightly hazy conditions as a slight plume of Saharan dust haze moved across the region. |
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Western Caribbean An upper low and trough over the western Caribbean supported light to moderate showers across the northern Bahamas and Cuba. Convection was significantly enhanced across the western Caribbean during the afternoon with thunderstorms developing across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Meanwhile, a building ridge over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands facilitated fair to partly cloudy skies with light shower activity. |
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Eastern Caribbean Outlook Tonight: The tropical wave analyzed near 58W at 2 pm will affect Barbados and the southern Windwards overnight. Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms are possible. Barbados, being on the northern fringe of this activity, can expect cloudy skies with light to moderate passing showers. Over the northern portions of the region, the Atlantic high-pressure system will maintain fair to partly cloudy skies. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 27/24. Friday: As the tropical wave pushes westward, some instability will persist across the southern Windwards. In addition, an upper trough will facilitate shower development. Meanwhile, Barbados and the central Windward Islands can look forward to partly cloudy skies as the ridge rebuilds. Overnight, conditions will also improve across the southern Windwards. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/24. Saturday: The Atlantic high-pressure system will be dominant across the region. However, upper-level instability will create partly cloudy conditions across the region. However, rainfall accumulations are expected to remain on the lower end. Overnight, this pattern will change as a low-level trough moves into the Leeward and northern Windwards, bringing the possibility for some showers activity. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/24. Sunday: The low-level trough will affect the Lesser Antilles. Moisture will however, be mostly lacking during this time, and upper-level conditions are forecast to become less favourable for moderate convective development. Therefore, partly cloudy skies with occasional light showers are the anticipated weather conditions. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/24. Monday: A ridge will briefly build across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean with fair to partly cloudy skies and isolated light showers as conditions become comparatively drier than the previous day. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/24. |
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Western Caribbean Outlook Tonight: As the upper low weakens across the western Caribbean, conditions will remain favourable to induce occasional showers across Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. A building Atlantic high-pressure system will bring a gradual improvement in weather conditions across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as the night progresses. Friday: The tropical wave currently analyzed near 58W is expected to move across he southern Caribbean. An upper trough developing across the central Caribbean may support isolated moderate showers in association with this feature. While some instability may persist across the western Caribbean, rainfall accumulations are expected to decrease across Hispaniola as high pressure builds westward. Saturday: High pressure will dominate across the Greater Antilles. Upper-level instability may, however, influence showers across the western Caribbean, particularly during the afternoon. With the high pressure will come the intrusion of Saharan dust haze across the region. Sunday: Troughing across the central Caribbean may trigger a few showers across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Further west, conditions are expected to remain similar to the previous day. Monday: The area of troughing is forecast to gradually shift westward, maintaining the likelihood for showers. Overnight, a tropical wave exiting the eastern Caribbean is expected to make its way into the central Caribbean. |
| Meteorologist Tia Browne |