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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20200117 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

A surface to low-level ridge pattern dominated weather conditions across the region overnight. Fair to partly cloudy skies with only a few brief isolated showers were observed here in Barbados and across the Southern Windward islands. Over the Leewards and Northern Windwards, occasionally cloudy skies with brief scattered showers were experienced as numerous shallow low-level cloud patches traversed the area.

Meanwhile, over Trinidad and Tobago, weak surface to low-level confluence maintained scattered showers and generally cloudy conditions. This was confirmed by BMS satellite and radar composite imagery.

Across the Guianas, partly cloudy to cloudy skies along with scattered showers were observed. A few isolated thunderstorms were also observed during the early part of the night, mainly over sections of French Guiana and Suriname. This was as a result of upper-level divergence and a low-level confluent pattern across the area.

Wind speeds across the region were light to moderate peaking around 20 knots at Hewanorra, in St. Lucia. Here in Barbados, at our BMS location at Charnocks Ch. Ch. windspeeds peaked around 17 knots. Sea conditions across the region were slight to moderate with swells peaking near 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

Over the Greater Antilles, the surface to mid-level high pressure system was dominant. However, surface to low-level confluence over some sections these islands allowed for occasionally cloudy skies with brief scattered showers to occur.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: A surface to low-level ridge pattern is expected to be the dominant feature across Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean. The mid to upper levels are expected to remain relatively dry and as a result, no significant shower activity is predicted despite the presense of an upper-level jet across the island chain. However, during the night a few low-level pulses in the prevailing wind flow are expected to produce occasional cloudiness with brief scattered showers, mainly across the northern half of the island chain.

Saturday: Weather condition across Barbados and the rest of the region will remain mostly unchanged during the day, however a frontal boundary will impact the Northern Leeward islands during the night. As a result, brief scattered showers are expected across the area. Gradually deteriorating sea conditions are expected across the Leewards at this time, with northerly swells peaking near 4.0m. Wind speeds across the region are expected to increase, peaking around 25 knots as the surface to mid-level high pressure system strengthens.

Sunday: The surface to mid-level ridge pattern will remain the dominant feature across Barbados and the majority of the region. Despite this, weak surface to low-level confluence is expected to trigger occasional cloudiness with brief scattered showers over some islands. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary will continue affecting the Northern Leewards and a further deterioration in sea conditions is predicted with swells peaking near 4.5m. During the night, Barbados and the Windward islands are also expected to experience deteriorating sea conditions with swells peaking near 4.0m.

Monday: The aforementioned frontal boundary, now a shearline is expected to continue lingering over the northern Leewards. However, as the day progresses, the remainder of the Leeward islands are expected to be affected by this feature as it dips further southward. Elsewhere, similar weather conditions to the previous day are expected as the surface to mid-level ridge remains dominant. Sea conditions are forecast to improve slightly across the region as the night progresses.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: A frontal boundary departing the south-eastern US seaboard is expected to affect the northern Bahamas. As a result, some scattered showers are anticipated across the area. As this feature drifts further south-eastward across the Central and Southern Bahamas, similar weather conditions are predicted to occur. Meanwhile, model data is suggesting a deteoriation in sea conditions for the Bahamian islands during the night with swells peaking near 4.0m. Elsewhere, mostly fair weather conditions are expected as a deep layered ridge pattern remains dominant.

Saturday: Improved weather conditions are predicted for the northern Bahamas, as the frontal boundary continues its south-eastward progression and the high pressure system re-establishes its dominance over area. As the day progresses, shallow low-level moisture associated with the frontal boundary is expected to generate brief scattered showers across most of the Greater Antilles. Elsewhere, no significant change is expected.

Sunday: Similar weather conditions to the previous day are expected across the region. A gradual improvement in sea conditions is forecast for the Bahamas. While sea conditions across the Greater Antilles will remain rough in open water with swells up to 4.0m.

Monday: A second frontal boundary is forecast to depart the south-eastern seaboard of the USA, generating deep convective acitivty across northern Bahamas and western Cuba. Elsewhere, similar weather conditions to the previous day are expected.
Meteorologist Andrew Daniel