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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20190721 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

************ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES AT 0600 UTC (2AM LST)***********************

A tropical wave was located along 25W south of 18N moving west at 15 to 20 knots.

A tropical wave extended from 5N61W to 14N54W, moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 knots.

=======================================================

Occasionally cloudy skies with brief scattered showers were observed across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean overnight as a surface to mid level trough with axis near 58W affected the region. The presence of an upper level low and trough provided some enhancement of these showers as observed on BMS radar composite imagery.

Further south, the wave extending from 5N61W to 14N54W generated cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of the Guianas.

Winds were generally light to moderate at times ranging from 4 to 15 knots. Seas were slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking near 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

A surface to low level trough generated showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and sections of northern Bahamas. However as the night progressed there was some improvement particularly over Cuba. Hispaniola as well as southern Bahamas were affected by another surface to low level trough which produced partly cloudy to cloudy skies and some scattered showers. Despite this, BMS satellite imagery depicted associated deep convection over open water just northeast of southern Bahamas. Elsewhere, fair to partly cloudy skies were enjoyed as the surface to mid level ridge pattern was the dominant feature.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: The surface to mid level trough will continue to make its way across the region while generating brief scattered showers. However, a reduction in the frequency of showers is expected as the day progresses. An approaching tropical wave extending from 5N61W to 14N54W will start to affect Barbados during the latter part of the afternoon generating showers, rain and thunderstorm activity. Similar conditions will spread across the southern Windwards then the rest of the Windwards as the night progresses.

Monday: The tropical wave will continue to affect Barbados and most of the island chain. Again showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist across these islands. However, conditions will begin to improve during the evening as the wave continues its rapid westward motion into the eastern Caribbean basin. However, model data is indicating the presence of some speed divergence trailing this wave that may trigger some during the first half of the night.

Tuesday: Although a surface to mid level ridge pattern will build across the region, an approaching surface to mid level trough will start to trigger occasional cloudiness with brief scattered showers during the afternoon and into the night.

Wednesday: The surface to mid level trough will continue to generate some showers across Barbados and the island chain. Model data is indicating that these showers will be more prominent over the Leewards and northern Windwards. In addition, the tropical wave presently along 25W will start to affect Barbados and most of the Windwards after midnight.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: A westward moving surface to low level trough will be affecting the central and southern Bahamas generating cloudy skies with some scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. Another low level trough will be affecting central and western Cuba while an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico and associated though extending over the area, will create a favourable upper level environment. As a result, showers and possible thunderstorms are anticipated. Meanwhile, a surface to mid level trough will be affecting the USVI as well as Puerto Rico generating occasional cloudiness with brief showers. Elsewhere, although a surface to mid level ridge pattern will be present, associated confluence may still trigger occasional scattered showers.

Monday: Similar conditions will persist across the Bahamas as well as Cuba. The surface to mid level trough will continue to move westwards across Hispaniola generating brief scattered showers while surface to low level confluence will also produce some showers under occasional cloudy skies across the Greater Antilles. In addition, a west-northwesterly moving tropical wave analyzed from 5N61W to 14N54W will start to affect the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico during the night.

Tuesday: The tropical wave will be affecting Hispaniola and Puerto generating some scattered showers, occasional rain and possible isolated thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the surface to mid level trough would have dissipated. Despite this, confluence associated with a ridge pattern will trigger brief scattered showers over the western Caribbean.

Wednesday: The tropical wave will be affecting sections of Cuba and Jamaica. The wave in combination with confluence will generate showers across the Bahamas, Cuba and Jamaica. Meanwhile behind the wave, a surface to mid level ridge pattern will build allowing for improved weather conditions.
Meteorologist Wayne McGeary