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Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20170728 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean


A large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity is associated with a broad low pressure system located about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development is possible over the next several days while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N34W to broad low pressure of 1012 mb at 10N34W and to 06N34W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-12N between 32W-38W. Both satellite imagery and the total precipitable water (TPW) imagery animation both reveal that moisture has increased within the surrounding environment of the this system, and seems to have overtaken most of the Saharan dust that has been present over its northern portion the past several days. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 45 nm of 12N34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of line from 12N34W to 11N37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N43W to 12N45W to 03N45W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is moving through a very stable atmospheric environment marked by the presence of a very pronounced African Saharan Air Layer that covers the eastern and central Atlantic north of the tropics. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave to 43W from 05N-09N. The wave is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles late on Sunday.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W, and extends northward to the Atlantic near 21N. Water vapor imagery depicts dry subsident air over the wave north of 15N. No deep convection is occurring with this wave. Only isolated showers and weak
isolated thunderstorms moving quickly westward in the trade wind flow are noted within 150 nm either side of the wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is just east of Jamaica with its axis along 76W south of 18.5N. It is moving west at about 17kt. Moisture with this wave remains rather shallow at the low-mid levels to its, while at the upper levels water vapor imagery shows a thin moisture in the form of scattered high clouds streaming eastward across the wave.
========================================================= A weak surface to low level shearline affected Barbados and mainly the southern Windward islands overnight. Although Satellite imagery showed the narrow cloud band associated with this feature dissipating some what, occasionally cloudy skies with some scattered showers were noted traversing the southern Windward islands as was evident from BMS Radar Composite imagery. Here in Barbados, some shower activity was enhanced mainly over the northern tip of the island. As a result, they received more shower activity compared to the remaining areas which observed a few brief light passing showers. Over the remainder of the island chain, lingering moisture associated with a Tropical wave along 63W, generated some scattered showers mainly across the Leewards and extreme northern Windward islands. Elsewhere across the island chain, a high pressure system was the dominant feature.
Trinidad and Tobago experienced a few showers in the latter part of the night in relation to the surface to low level shearline mentioned earlier. Across the Guianas, scattered showers were reported across Guyana with fair to partly cloudy skies across the remainder of the Guianas.
Winds across the Eastern Caribbean were predominantly easterly reaching up to 19 knots at times. Seas remained slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking at 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

Across the western Caribbean, an upper level trough situated over the Greater antilles generated some light to moderate convective activity over those islands during the early stages of the night, satellite imagery showed the convection diminishing into the early morning hours. The Tropical wave along 63W generated some showers over South America which were enhanced by and upper level diffluent pattern. Further west, apart from activity associated with the Tropical wave along 76W, conditions were generally fair to occasionally cloudy with a few widely scattered showers.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

The low level shearline feature will continue to affect the extreme southern Windward islands today as it drifts south westward across that area. Meanwhile, a central Atlantic high pressure system will be dominant across Barbados and the remainder of the island chain. Conditions are expected to become allot drier at least in the low to mid level with some high level cirrus clouds traversing the area. Occasional shallow low level cloud patches are expected to drift across the northern and central portions of the island chain and eventually the extreme southern Windwards by afternoon, with a few isolated brief showers. By tonight some weak low level instability may generate a few showers over the Leewards and northern Windward islands in response to low level convergence on the south-western periphery of the central Atlantic high pressure system.
A layer of Saharan dust is expected to drift over the region around Saturday and as a result hazy conditions and a reduction in horizontal visibility can be expected.
The high pressure system will remain dominant across the region tomorrow and into the weekend until around early late Saturday into Sunday morning, when a weak low to mid level trough passes over the northern portions of the region generating occasional shower activity and cloudiness. By Sunday afternoon, the Tropical wave along 45W quickly trailing the low to mid level trough mentioned previously, is expected to begin affecting mainly the southern Windward islands. The upper levels are expected to become more conducive for isolated convective development as instability levels increase. Thus, the likelihood for some scattered shower activity is greater around this time.
Another round of showers is anticipated around Monday morning, as a surface to low level shearline traverses the area. Following the passage of this shearline on Monday night, a strong central Atlantic high pressure system will re-establish itself across the region briefly. With the tightened pressure gradient and the presence of a low level wind surge, conditions are expected to be windy across the region late Monday through to Tuesday. A broad Tropical wave along 34W is expected to begin affecting the island chain by Tuesday, supporting some scattered shower activity.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Over the Greater Antilles, an upper level trough over the area will continue to support some sporadic convective development more so during the afternoon across the islands. Over the south American areas, a diffluent upper level pattern coupled with the Tropical wave along 63W will support scattered convection as the wave progresses westward. As with much of the central Caribbean, a diffluent upper level over central America will also support some convective development.
Meteorologist Tia Browne