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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20190122 PERIOD: Evening

Eastern Caribbean

Some scattered showers were recorded across some sections of Barbados during the night. Here at Charnocks we measured 4.9 mm up to 2:00AM. Some of the windward islands also recorded some scattered showers , St Lucia reported 2.0mm for the same time period . Several patches of low level cloud moved across the area . Over the remainder of the island chain generally fair skies were reported . Trinidad and Tobago ,and the Guianas reported mostly fair skies . During the day fair to occasionally cloudy skies were recorded across the Eastern Caribbean with a few brief scattered showers mainly over the Leewards . Once again we saw several shallow patches of low level cloud being swept into the area under the influence of the eastern Atlantic high pressure system . We registered some fluctuations in wind speeds across the area , ranging from 6 to 19 knots/35KM/H here in Barbados . Seas remain slight to moderate in open water with swells from 1.0m to 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands recorded cloudy skies and some scattered showers during the morning . A weak low level trough enhanced some low level patches with some embedded showers, moving in from the northeast , under the influence of the western Atlantic high pressure system, and delivered some wet conditions . During the day the cloudy skis persisted , but there was a reduction in precipitation. Further to the west a cold front has been making its presence felt . Hispaniola reported cloudy skies and showers and periods of rain all day long. As far south as Jamaica also reported some showers , under partly cloudy to cloudy skies . To the northwest , a building high pressure system was responsible for the transport of cooler and drier air across the northern Bahamas, western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico which resulted in the formation of extensive bands of statocumulus clouds.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: The eastern Atlantic high pressure system will initially dominate the weather across Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean. As a result, some shallow low level cloud patches embedded in the low level trades will generate periods of occasional cloudiness and brief isolated shower activity across the island chain from time to time ., despite the dry and stable mid level environment inhibiting significant convective development.
Model data analysis is indicating the eastward movement of a deep layered trough in the central Atlantic. In its wake, a high pressure system will make an exit from the southeastern US seaboard, while gaining its dominance across the Western Atlantic. The arrival of this feature to the north of the Eastern Caribbean after nightfall will result in a strengthening of the pressure gradient thus increasing the windspeeds.

Wednesday: As the western Atlantic high pressure system continues to slowly migrate to the east across the Atlantic, a surface to low level shearline on its southern periphery will migrate to the south over the Leewards to generate some brief scattered shower activity. Barbados and the remainder of the island chain will remain under fair to partly cloudy skies, breezy conditions with the slight possibility of a few brief showers.

Thursday: The above mentioned high pressure system previously centered over the western Atlantic will continue to move eastward. This feature will continue to dominate conditions across Barbados and the Windwards with a few shallow low level cloud patches continuing to traverse the area from time to time. Meanwhile the Leewards will continue to be affected by the surface to low level shearline on the southern and south western periphery of the high. The combination of the central Atlantic high and the development of a deep layered low near 33N 37W, will generate swells of up to 3.0m in open water which are forecast to push southward increasing swell heights across the Caribbean.

Friday: The central Atlantic high pressure system will remain the dominant feature. However the surface to low level shearline previously mentioned over the Leewards, is expected to drift southward to affect the northern Windward islands. Conditions will remain breezy with fair to partly cloudy skies elsewhere.

Saturday: The surface to low level shearline will continue on its southward motion while affecting the central Windwards. Barbados wil see some temporary improvement in weather , but as the day progresses another shallow band will descent from the north . Hence, occasionally cloudy skies with some scattered showers are likely. Although the central Atlantic high pressure will remain dominant, its strength will be weakened by the presence of a deep layered low near 25N 40W and a frontal boundary residing in the Western Atlantic.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Tonight : Cloudiness and showers associated with the frontal boundary will stall and weaken across the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. While that is happening, the high pressure system in the western Atlantic will progress eastward as it dominates the weather conditions across the basin. A surface to low level shearline on its southern periphery may generate some scattered showers across the Greater Antilles and the Yucatan Peninsula. As the pressure gradient strengthens, an increase in the wind speeds across the area are likely and this will equate to an increase in swell heights mainly in the south western Caribbean Sea.

Wednesday: The high pressure system previously centered over the western Atlantic will slowly continue on its eastward journey as this feature reinforces its dominance across the region. Surface to low level confluence on its southern and south western periphery will continue to generate occasional showers across the Greater Antilles. A frontal system being forced to the southeast by another building high pressure system over Texas will bring some cloudiness and moderate convection across the Florida Panhandle, southwestwards to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Thursday: As the frontal system moves south eastward off the Gulf of Mexico, it will affect the northern Bahamian islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Meanwhile the remainder of the region will be under the influence of the robust central Atlantic high pressure system where surface to low level confluence will continue to initiate some brief showers mainly over Hispaniola eastward to the Virgin islands.

Friday: The frontal system will remain over the far western Caribbean. Some convective support may be lent from an upper level jet and trough over the western Caribbean. No significant change in conditions is expected elsewhere.

Saturday: The frontal system will stall across the central Bahamas, Cuba the Cayman Islands and Belize. As a result, cloudiness and showers will persist over the above mentioned areas. A few weak troughs will make their presence felt across the Caribbean basin. Puerto Rico will enjoy fair skies under the influence of a slightly weakened central Atlantic high pressure system.
Meteorologist David Best