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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20180324 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

Over the eastern Caribbean overnight, a surface to low level trough affected the region. Moisture levels remain confined to beneath 10 000ft with mainly shallow cloud patches traversing the region from time to time. These were enough to generate scattered showers across the Windward islands mostly as observed from BMS Composite Radar Imagery. Here in Barbados, fair skies were reported here at Charnocks with occasional cloudiness by dawn accompanied by a few showers across the remainder of the island. 0.2mm was measured here at the Charnocks station at 6 a.m. Trinidad and Tobago also experienced similar conditions to their Lesser Antilles counterparts.

Across the Guianas, Fair to partly cloudy skies were observed throughout the night with limited showers being reported. French Guiana however, under partly cloudy to cloudy skies experienced some light rain.

Winds across the region remain light peaking to 15 knots with swells moderate to rough in open water peaking to 2.5m.
Western Caribbean

Some cloudiness and showers were present across Hispaniola overnight due to the southward extension of the cold frontal boundary across the Mona passage. Fair skies were observed across the remainder of the western Caribbean as a high pressure system dominated across the area. Cloudy skies were observed across central America with convection across Colombia and western sections of Venezuela enhanced by a an area of upper level divergence. A weak trough was analyzed over Puerto Rico but had little effect in generate an increase in cloud cover with mainly clear skies being reported overnight.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: The surface to low level trough will continue to affect the Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. Shallow moisture and instability will generate scattered showers across the island chain. Winds will continue to be light across the region due to a weakening in the pressure gradient. As the frontal boundary slowly inches eastward across the Atlantic, an induced trough extending from the frontal boundary southward over the Leewards will add to the instability across the that part of the region.

Sunday: Analysis shows troughing remaining at the lower to mid levels allowing for continued instability across the region. Shower activity will remain scattered under mainly fair to occasionally cloudy skies. Moisture levels are expected to slowly increase at the mid levels with decreasing stability, as a westerly to south westerly wind flow associated with a low to upper level low expands across the area weakening the anti-cyclonic flow at the mid levels.

Monday: Analysis shows weak troughing remaining at the surface to low levels. With more moisture at the mid levels, this may facilitate partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies with the likelihood of scattered showers remaining.

Tuesday: Similar conditions are expected across the region as a weak surface to low level trough and adequate mid to upper level moisture and instability remains across the region.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: The cold frontal boundary will slowly progress eastward across the Atlantic. A surface high pressure system will anchor across the Bahamas, Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula with fair to partly skies and brief light isolated shower activity.

Sunday: The high pressure system across the western Caribbean will eventually weaken as another frontal boundary departs the U.S eastern Seaboard by night fall. Some showers will remain across central America, with weak troughing across Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands.

Monday : The frontal boundary will generate some showers across the Bahamas as it pushes southward across those islands. Across the remainder of the western Caribbean, a surface to level ridge pattern will remain across the area with weak troughing across Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands.

Tuesday: The Cold frontal boundary will continue on its eastward progression with the westward extension of the front continuing to generate some showers across the Bahamas. A surface to low level ridge pattern will remain across the remainder of the island chain with occasional shower activity.

Strong winds nearing gale force will remain across the southern Caribbean over the next four days.
Meteorologist Tia Browne