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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20190921 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

********************TROPICAL WAVES AT 0900UTC(5AM LST)*************************

A tropical wave was analyzed along 76W, south of 22N almost stationary.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 54W south of 13N moving west at 15 knots.

A tropical wave was introduced and is analyzed along 25W south of 18N moving west at 15 knots to 20 knots.
=======================================================

A surface to low level confluent pattern on the southwestern periphery of the surface to mid level high pressure system centered in north central Atlantic maintain relatively high moisture amounts across the eastern Caribbean. As a result, a few brief off and on isolated showers were observed across the region.
Further south, over Trinidad and tobago and the Guianas, experienced partly cloudy skies with a few scattered showers as moisture ahead of an approaching tropical wave began to affect the area. Some thunderstorm activity was reported in Tobago a few hours before daybreak.
Wind speeds across the region ranged between 4 to 18 knots. While sea conditions were slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking near 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

During the night and through to daybreak Hurricane Jerry passed just to the northeast of the USVI generating some scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms across the immediate vicinity. At the same time, a surface to mid level trough positioned over the Windward Passage generated cloudy skies, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over Haiti, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. While over the southwestern Caribbean unsettled weather conditions persisted due to the monsoon trough over the area. Elsewhere, mixed weather conditions prevailed.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: Model data is indicating bands of deep layered moisture ahead of the tropical wave (presently with axis near 51/52W at 0900 UTC) will add to the already moist and unstable environment resulting in cloudy to overcast skies scattered showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms across Barbados and the island chain. Wind speeds are expected to increase, peaking around 30 knots/56KM/H with higher gust near showers expected across the region.

Sunday: The tropical wave in combination with the I.T.C.Z and a favourable upper level pattern is expected to move over the southern portion of the region maintaining moisture and instability over Barbados and the Windwards at first. However, as the day progresses conditions associated with the tropical wave and associated area of low pressure will gradually spread across the remainder of the island chain.

Monday: Activity associated with the tropical wave from Sunday will continue to spread across the region, generating moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and the possibly thunderstorm activity.

Tuesday: A surface to low level confluent pattern in association with a mid level trough across the central Windward islands will generate some scattered showers and possible thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: Model data is indicating some weakening of Hurricane Jerry as the centre of this feature it is expected to move north of Puerto Rico. Some relatively high moisture amounts and instability is still likely over Puerto Rico from the feeder bands. In the meanwhile a surface to mid level trough positioned over the Windward Passage will generate cloudy skies, scattered showers and possible thunderstorms mainly over Haiti, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. While over the southwestern Caribbean unsettled weather conditions will persist due to the monsoon trough over the area. Elsewhere, mixed weather conditions will prevail.

Sunday: The tropical wave will continue to move away from Puerto Rico, however some showers are still likely over the area due to the feeder bands. Meanwhile, an abundance of moisture and instability will persist across the western Caribbean resulting with some scattered showers. Elsewhere, no significant change in the weather pattern from previous day is expected.

Monday: A high pressure system will build across Puerto Rico eventually spreading across eastern Hispaniola as the night progresses. As a result improving weather conditions will be noticeable. While persisting moisture and instability will maintain showers and possible thunderstorms over the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. Elsewhere, no significant change in the weather pattern from previous day is expected.

Tuesday: Model data is expecting Hurricane Jerry to move over or very close to Bermuda. This will result in moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, no significant change in the weather conditions from previous day is expected.
Meteorologist David Harding