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| Barbados Meteorological Services Charnocks ChCh Weather Discussion http://www.BarbadosWeather.org Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products. DATE: 20240427 PERIOD: Morning |
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Eastern Caribbean *********************** (SPECIAL FEATURES AT 2 AM / 0600UTC) ************************* A tropical wave was analyzed along 33W south of 8N moving west at 10 to 15 knots. ======================================================== Low-level perturbations were generated by a low-pressure center in the central tropical Atlantic. These perturbations were transported within the easterly flow of the low-level ridge pattern as it brought occasional cloudiness and showers across the region. Here at Charnocks, a trace amount of rainfall was recorded during the past 12 hours while rainfall accumulations remained under 5mm. Across Trinidad and Tobago, a ridge pattern was the dominant feature with generally clear skies observed. Further south, across the Guianas, conditions were mostly dry and stable due to a ridge pattern. Winds across the region were generally light to moderate, peaking at 17 knots in St. Lucia. Seas conditions were slight to moderate in open water with swells ranging between 1.0m to 2.0m. |
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Western Caribbean Hispaniola and Jamaica were influenced heavily by a mid to upper trough which enhanced low-level convection initiated by a convergent pattern. Thunderstorms were observed across those islands. In addition, Puerto Rico along with Hispaniola saw equatorial advection of mid to upper cloud which blanketed the area as cloudy to overcast skies were present. Elsewhere, a ridge pattern was dominant and conditions were generally fair. |
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Eastern Caribbean Outlook Saturday: The region will continue to observe a few passing showers as under occasionally cloudy skies as low-level perturbations continue to traverse the eastern Caribbean. A low-level trough will move into the Leewards overnight causing light to moderate showers. In the upper level across the area mentioned above, an upper-level jet embedded within a southwesterly wind flow along with moisture and instability will likely generate possible thunderstorm activity during the night. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 32/24. Sunday: The low-level trough will continue to generate unsettled conditions across the Leewards. This activity will spread to the northern Windwards. As for the remainder of the region, a light wind regime may cause the development of a few brief light showers, mainly during the afternoon. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 32/24. Monday: Unsettled conditions will persist across the Leewards and northern Windwards. No significant change in forecast conditions is expected across the remainder of the region. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 32/24. Tuesday: Moisture and instability will remain across the Leewards and northern Windwards generating similar weather conditions. Meanwhile, across the remainder of the region, low-level pulses will result in occasional cloudiness and a few brief showers. By this time the tropical wave analyzed along 33W will be approaching the Guianas and begin affecting the area during the night. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 32/24. |
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Western Caribbean Outlook Saturday: The upper trough and its jet will shift away from the Greater Antilles gradually limiting the enhancement of deep convection and reducing the chance of thunderstorm activity. However, confluence will maintain unsettled conditions across the central Caribbean with similar weather conditions forecast. Elsewhere, the ridge pattern will remain dominant and no change in forecast conditions is expected. Sunday: The surface to level ridge will be the dominant feature across the basin. Low-level confluence and moisture lingering across the Greater Antilles, will cause cloudiness and showers. Meanwhile, no change is expected across the Bahamas. Monday: No significant change in forecast conditions is projected as the ridge remains dominant. Tuesday: No significant change in forecast across the basin at this time. |
| Meteorologist Christophe Martin |