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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20180121 PERIOD: Evening

Eastern Caribbean

A low level pulse associated with convergence along the southwestern periphery of the Atlantic high pressure system, affected Barbados and the southern Windward islands today. Satellite imagery revealed a low level cloud mass from St. Lucia southward to the twin island republic of Trinidad and Tobago. This brought, cloudy skies, showers and rain to those islands. Furthermore, with the presence of a low level wind surge, higher gusts were also reported near showers. Here in Barbados, 3.8mm of rainfall was recorded between 8am and 2pm. Meanwhile over the same time period, apart from the 2mm recorded in Point Salines Airport, Grenada, only traceable amounts or no rainfall were reported across the other islands.

Contrastingly over the Leewards and northern Windwards, the Atlantic high pressure system remained the dominant feature. As a result, fair to partly cloudy skies with a few brief isolated showers prevailed.

Further south, fair to occasionally cloudy conditions with a few showers were experienced over the Guianas initially. However, as the afternoon progressed, some convection was observed mainly along the coastal areas.

Wind speeds across the region remained on the moderate to brisk side, ranging from 12 to 24 knots. Higher gusts near showers were also reporetd here in Barbados and in St. Lucia with the highest being 37 and 29 knots respectively. Consequently, seas were moderate to rough in open water with swells near 2.5 meters.
Western Caribbean

The main feature of interest over the western Caribbean, was an area of showers and a few thunderstorms just to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula, extending northeastwards through Cuba and the Bahamas. This was related to divergence aloft associated with a mid to upper level trough system extending from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan peninsula. Meanwhile, a band of low level clouds occupied the central Caribbean basin as they passed to the north of the ABC islands. Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands experienced fair to partly cloudy conditions while fair to occasionally cloudy with some showers prevailed over Hispaniola.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: The low level pulse will continue to affect Barbados and the southern Windward islands tonight although some improvement is anticipated over Barbados and St. Vincent as the night progresses. Further north, the Atlantic high pressure system will remain the dominant feature and as a result, only brief isolated showers will persist over those islands. Dust model analysis is also indicating that some Saharan dust will be evident across the area, varying in intensity from time to time.

Monday: High pressure system will be the dominant feature across most of the island chain. However, low level convergence will mainly affect the extreme southern Windwards and most of the Leeward islands, triggering occasional cloudiness with showers. Elsewhere, fair to partly cloudy and breezy weather conditions with a few brief isolated showers will persist.

Tuesday: High pressure system will remain the dominant feature but low level confluence along the southwestern periphery of the ridge will still trigger occasional showers. By night fall, another low level pulse will begin to affect Barbados and the southern Windwards, generating some cloudiness with shallow showers, as a dry mid level environment keeps moisture confined to the lower levels.

Wednesday : The low level pulse will continue to affect Barbados and the southern Windward islands. Meanwhile, further north, only brief shower activity is anticipated as a surface to mid level ridge pattern continues to dominate weather conditions.

Thursday: A similar weather pattern to the previous day is anticipated.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: Instability will persist over the western Caribbean however, the upper level portion of the mid to upper level trough will shift eastward. Meanwhile, the southern portion of the remnants of the frontal boundary will drift back westward maintaining relatively high moisture levels over Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman islands, central to eastern Bahamas and portions of Hispaniola. As a result cloudy skies, scattered light to moderate showers, and some periods of rain will remain across the aforementioned islands. On the other hand, no significant change in weather conditions is anticipated over the eastern Caribbean.

Monday: Moisture associated with the remnants of a frontal boundary will persist over sections of the western Caribbean, generating cloudiness with showers and rain. Over the central Caribbean, occasional cloudiness and showers will mainly remain north of the islands. Further south, a low level trough will maintain some showers across the southwest Caribbean basin.

Tuesday: Confluence along the southern periphery of a surface to mid level western Atlantic high pressure system will maintain mostly low level moisture across the Greater Antilles. A diffluent upper level pattern may provide enhancement of some showers mainly over the western Caribbean.

Wednesday: A similar weather pattern to the previous day is anticipated.
Meteorologist Wayne McGeary