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| Barbados Meteorological Services Charnocks ChCh Weather Discussion http://www.BarbadosWeather.org Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products. DATE: 20251020 PERIOD: Evening |
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Eastern Caribbean ************************ (TROPICAL WAVES AT 1800UTC/ 2PM LST) ********************** A tropical wave was analyzed along 66W south of 19N, moving west at 10 knots. A tropical wave was analyzed along 33W south of 13N, moving west at 10 knots. ********************************************************************************************* Even though a surface to low-level north-eastern Atlantic high-pressure system re-established itself across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. A surface to mid-level confluent pattern on the southern periphery of the said high in conjunction with adequate low-level moisture and a marginally favourable upper-level pattern, generated scattered light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms over Barbados, the southern and central Windward Islands, and also Trinidad and Tobago, mainly during the late morning and early afternoon sessions. Farther north, drying out of the lower-mid to mid-level environment was noticeable. As a result, a mix of clear skies and clouds with a few brief isolated light showers was encountered. Over the Guianas, a low-level trough drifting westward from over French Guiana, produced a mix of clear skies and clouds with scattered light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds across the region were light to moderate, peaking at 20 knots here at Charnocks in Christ Church and 20 knots in St. Lucia. Seas were moderate to rough in open water, peaking near 3.0m. |
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Western Caribbean A tropical wave associated with deep-layered moisture and a favourable upper-level pattern, drifted slowly westwards, just south of Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. As a consequence, cloudy skies and unsettled weather was experienced over that area. At the same time, the tail-end of a shear line anchored over the southern Bahamas produced a few scattered showers. Farther west, a ridge pattern allowed for a mix of clear skies and clouds some intermittent scattered showers. |
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Eastern Caribbean Outlook Tonight: A surface to low-level north-eastern Atlantic high-pressure system will rebuild across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean. In addition, drying out of the lower-mid to mid-level environment will be noticeable over the region. As a result, a mix of clear skies and clouds with a few brief isolated light showers is forecast. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 2522. Tuesday: Mostly dry and stable conditions can be expected as the high-pressure system remains dominant. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/22. Wednesday: A low-level trough associated with adequate low-level moisture, embedded within a southeasterly surface to low-level wind flow, will drift over the southern Windward Islands and Barbados. Consequently, a few scattered light showers will interrupt mostly fair weather conditions. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/22. Thursday: The low-level moisture will increase in amounts and spread northwards across the chain. Hence, a mix of clear skies and clouds with a few scattered light to moderate showers is anticipated. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/22. Friday: A surface to mid-level confluent pattern in conjunction with deep-layered moisture over the Leewards and northern Windward Islands will produce cloudy to overcast skies, scattered moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain, and possible thunderstorms. Elsewhere, across the chain, a deep-layered high-pressure system associated with a subsident pattern and a drying out of the atmosphere over this area will allow for mostly fair weather conditions. Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/22. |
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Western Caribbean Outlook Tonight: A tropical wave drifting slowly just south of Puerto and Hispaniola associated with deep-layered moisture and a favourable upper-level pattern will generate unsettled weather over that area. At the same time, the tail-end of a shear line anchored over the southern Bahamas is likely to produce a few scattered showers. Farther west, a ridge pattern will allow for a mix of clear skies and clouds some intermittent scattered showers. Tuesday: The axis of the aforementioned tropical wave is forecast to be near 70W south of 20N at 211800 UTC. Consequently, unsettled weather will persist across the central Greater Antilles. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from the previous day is expected. Wednesday: Model data indicates the axis of the tropical wave will be positioned near 71W south of 21N at 221200 UTC. In addition, model data indicates a vigorous increase of deep-layered moisture and a very favourable upper low over the aforementioned area. Consequently, cloudy to overcast skies, scattered moderate to intense showers, periods of moderate rain, gusty winds and thunderstorms are anticipated. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from the previous day is expected. Thursday: By this time (231200 UTC), the tropical wave is forecast to become a well organized Tropical Storm Melissa with a center near 17N 72W. Storm force conditions are forecast across eastern Cuba through Puerto Rico and including the southern half of the Bahamas. Friday: As the Potential Tropical Storm becomes elongated some weakening is anticipated. However, unsettled weather conditions will persist across eastern Cuba through Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and the southern half of the Bahamas. Farther west, across Cuba and the northern Bahamas, dry and stable weather conditions are forecast. |
| Meteorologist David Harding |