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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20170922 PERIOD: Evening

Eastern Caribbean

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################# Special Features: ###############
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...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS LOWERED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JOSE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...39.3N 69.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

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...LEE REGENERATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...30.8N 48.9W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

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...MARIA PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...23.3N 71.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

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################# Tropical Waves: ###############
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Tropical wave just off the African coast near 18W south of 18N at 18Z moving west at 10-15KT. No significant convection associated with this system at this time.

Tropical wave along 45W south of 17N moving west at 10KT. Isolated weak areas of deep convection is associated with this wave.


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################# Discussion : ###############
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Fair to partly cloudy conditions prevailed over Barbados, the Windwards and northern Leewards with little or no shower activity. Anti-cyclonic deep layered flow across the area enabled generally stable conditions across most of the islands. Over the Southern Leewards shower activity although also brief and isolated, were a little more frequent as a weak surface to low level shear line east of the Leewards generated some weak low level instability east of the chain. Cirriform clouds outflowing from Hurricane Maria covered the Eastern Caribbean throughout the day.

Over the Guianas afternoon convective outburst generated some moderate to heavy downpours over the area mainly. ITCZ remains well east and north of the area at this time ( terminates from the African Monsoon trough near 7N 45W.
Western Caribbean

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################# Special Features: ###############
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None

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################# Tropical Waves: ###############
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Hurricane Maria continues to torment the Caribbean. The system continued to affect the Turks and Caicos islands throughout the day with Hurricane force winds and life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today and Bermuda tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Maria indirectly produced cloudy to overcast conditions with periods of rain and some isolated areas of moderate to heavy convective showers over Puerto Rico and the Hispaniola. Conditions over these two islands gradually improved as the day progressed.

Over Cuba and Jamaica, afternoon convective showers associated with day time heating generated some isolated areas of moderate to heavy convective showers. Evidence of this was also in BMS radar composite products.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: Not much overall change expected across the region during the night.

Saturday: Again no significant change expected, ridge flow pattern will continue, however tropical wave initialized along 45W in this discussion will be approaching the island by early Sunday morning.

Sunday: Tropical wave will begin to affect Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean during the day with some improvement towards nightfall over Barbados. Conditions into the night will become partly cloudy and breezy. Improvement across the other islands of the Eastern Caribbean will come as the night progresses. Dust Haze trails this wave and should start moving into the area by nightfall.

Monday: Surface to low level Central Atlantic high pressure system will regain dominance across the Barbados and the central islands of the Eastern Caribbean. South over Trinidad and Tobago some showers with instability associated with a mid level trough is expected. Similarly over the northern Leewards a surface to mid level tough system will generate some showers over the area. Dust haze will continue to affect the area.

Tuesday: Surface to mid level high pressure system dominates, but an induced surface to low level trough by an upper level trough which anchors itself across the region for the duration of the entire forecast period will bring some showers to Trinidad and Tobago. Dust haze will still affect the area mainly north of 12N.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Saturday: Maria will continue to move away from the Bahamas. Although weather conditions will continue to improve gradually across the area, swells are still expected to be well above normal during this time. Confluent mositure bands trailing Maria will continue to generate some showers over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Elsewhere some afternoon convective showers/thunderstorms are expected. Large and dangerous swells and rip currents will continue to affect the Bahamas

Sunday: Conditions will continue to improve over the Central Caribbean. However some occasional convective showers are still forecast for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Conditions elsewhere will remain mostly unchanged. Large and dangerous swells and rip currents will continue to affect the Bahamas and the eastern Sea board of the United States.

Monday: Mostly afternoon convective showers are expected over most of the islands of the Central and Western Caribbean. With the exception of Belize and Western Cuba, a mid to upper level trough will generate some concentrated areas of convective showers over the area. Large and dangerous swells and rip currents will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the eastern Sea board of the United States.

Tuesday: Conditions will remain mostly unchanged across the region. Large and dangerous swells and rip currents will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the eastern Sea board of the United States.
Meteorologist Sabu Best