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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20180524 PERIOD: Evening

Eastern Caribbean

TROPICAL WAVES ( at 1800 UTC )

A Tropical wave positioned along 70W south of 7N moving W near 10-15 knots.

A Tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 50W south of 12N moving W at 15 - 20 knots.

A Tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic along 40W south of 8N moving W at 15 - 20 knots.

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Across the eastern Caribbean today, the Atlantic high pressure system dominated conditions across the area. Fair to occasionally cloudy skies were observed throughout the day with a few brief passing scattered showers as was evident from BMS radar composite imagery. Here in Barbados at the Charnocks weather station, no rainfall was measured up to 6 p.m. Rainfall accumulations across the island, yielded 0.3mm at Halton Plantation, 0.3mm at Industry and Farmers Dam St. Thomas. 1.3mm was measured at Apes Hill Polo Field.

Across the Guianas, scattered showers and occasional rain was observed across the region. Some afternoon convection was visible across coastal sections of the Guianas.

Winds across the region were predominantly easterly ranging from 10 to 20 knots. Seas remained slight to moderate in open water with swells peaking to 2.0m.
Western Caribbean

SPECIAL FEATURES

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Across the western Caribbean, along with the presence of the low pressure center, the diffluent upper level pattern, continued to generate moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and thunderstorm activity across western parts of Cuba, northern Bahamas islands, Cayman islands and just offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Pockets of moderate to heavy convection was also evident across the central American regions in association with the pacific monsoonal activity. Elsewhere across the basin, the Atlantic high pressure system dominated weather conditions with some afternoon localized convection developing across Hispaniola and the Virgin Islands.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: The Atlantic high pressure system will remain dominant across the region. Generally fair skies with only brief passing showers are anticipated across the region. The mid to upper level environment will maintain unfavourable conditions for convective development.

Friday: Mostly fair conditions will prevail throughout the day as the high pressure maintains dominance across the region. However by evening, the Tropical wave along 50W is expected to approach the region leading to an increase in low level instability. By nightfall an increase in low level cloudiness and a few scattered showers are anticipated across Barbados and the islands.

Saturday: As the Tropical wave (from the previous day) continues to affect the region, occasional brief showers will continue. No significant convection is anticipated as the mid to upper level environment remains un-supportive of convective activity. Some improvement is forecast across Barbados initially during the night, as the Atlantic high pressure regains dominance.

Sunday: As the high pressure system regains dominance across the entire eastern Caribbean, a confluent pattern across the Leewards and northern Windwards will initiate occasional brief shower activity. Analysis suggest a TUTT developing across the region, with increasing mid to upper level instability across the just mentioned areas. Thus there is the potential for some isolated areas of shower enhancement. Elsewhere across the region, mostly fair skies will exists with the odd passing shower.

Monday: The TUTT will deepen across the eastern Caribbean, however the more favourable upper level diffluent pattern will remain just east of the island chain. Nevertheless some instability will persist at the upper levels; This coupled with the presence of the surface to low level confluent pattern across the Leewards and northern Windwards will allot for some isolated shower enhancement. Across Barbados and the remainder of the island chain, the surface to low level high pressure system will continue to dominate with a much drier and stable mid level environment thus limiting convection. Mainly fair to partly cloudy skies with brief isolated passing showers are anticipated.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: No significant change from today is expected across the region.

Friday: The area of low pressure remains positioned to the south east of the Yucatan Peninsula with development likely. The diffluent upper level pattern will maintain moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms across parts of the northern Bahamas, the majority of Cuba, Jamaica southward to over the central American regions. The weak confluent pattern will continue to initiate brief showers across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands.

Saturday: The low center gradually moves north north-west to just west of the Florida panhandle with slow development possible as it progresses. Citizens in the western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this feature. A generally unstable environment with convective activity will remain across the western Greater Antilles and central American regions. Elsewhere across the region, no significant change from the previous day is expected.

Sunday: The area of low pressure shifts westward just offshore the southern U.S. Some slow development remains possible throughout the forecast. Meanwhile over the western Greater Antilles, Bahamas and central American regions unstable conditions will persist with pockets of deep convection remaining possible. Elsewhere across the remainder of the Greater Antilles, no significant change is expected.

Monday: The area of low pressure moves inland over the southern U.S. Elsewhere across the basin, no significant change from the previous days are expected.
Meteorologist Tia Browne