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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20180920 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

**********TROPICAL WAVES (0900UTC)***************************

TW #40 is located near 69W south of 19N moving west at 15 - 20 knots.

****************OTHER FEATURES********************************

A surface to mid level trough analyzed along 12N48W to 5N51W is producing a small concentrated area of convection.

=========================================================
Across Barbados and the eastern Caribbean, a deep layered Atlantic high pressure system gradually gained dominance as the axis of TW#40 progressed westward over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Much of the showers over the Lesser Antilles diminished overnight as was evident from BMS Radar composite imagery. Dry and stable atmospheric conditions settled across the area with mostly fair skies and the odd brief isolated shower across some islands. A plume of Saharan dust haze also accompanied the building high pressure system thus reducing the visibility and contributing to the dry conditions.

A weak shearline pattern over Trinidad and Tobago kept some showers across the twin islands, however a confluent pattern generating some isolated pockets of enhanced convection remained offshore to the north of the Guianas, with mainly fair skies being reported overnight.

Winds across the region remain moderate to brisk reaching 20 knots overnight. Swells continue to improve peaking to 2.0m in open water.
Western Caribbean

As TW#40 moved across the eastern Caribbean Sea, showers and thunderstorm were generated over Puerto Rico and just offshore over open waters. Much of the remainder of the basin was dominated by a surface to mid level ridge pattern, however troughing over the Yucatan Peninsula coupled with adequate amounts of mid to upper level moisture, kept generally cloudy conditions across the western Caribbean with a few showers and occasional rain. Over the south western Caribbean, monsoon activity remained active. Deep layered troughing to the north of the Bahamas kept convection well offshore, with mainly fair skies being observed. Elsewhere across the basin, fair skies with periods of cloudiness and light showers were observed.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: The deep layered Atlantic high pressure system will be dominant across the eastern Caribbean. Analysis suggest that conditions will be dry and stable in the lower to mid levels. Thus shallow moisture traversing the area will allow for mostly fair and breezy conditions as winds continue to peak to around 20 knots. A plume of Saharan dust will continue to blanket the area over the next four days reducing horizontal visibility.

Friday: No significant change in weather conditions from the previous day is expected.

Saturday: A deep layered trough system over the central Atlantic is expected to induce weak surface to low level troughs which are expected to traverse the northern portions of the region bringing some brief shower activity under partly cloudy skies. Meanwhile across Barbados and the remainder of the region, a surface to low level trough will gradually approach the region, increasing surface to low level moisture and instability which will attribute to a few scattered showers. The presence of the aforementioned upper level trough is expected to weaken the Atlantic high pressure system thus reducing wind speeds across the region.

Sunday: The surface to low level trough system will be affecting Barbados and the Windward islands. A few scattered showers are forecast during this time. Not much change is expected over the northern portions of the region.

Monday: Deep layered moisture will remain in adequate supply across the island chain as the aforementioned trough progresses westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough will gradually develop with axis oriented north south over the region. The presence of this trough will allow for some isolated areas of convective enhancement to develop over the region. Overnight deep layered instability will significantly increase due to the passage of a surface to mid level trough feature.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: TW #40 will progress westward over the central Caribbean spreading a few scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from overnight. Improvement over the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico will be noticeable by late evening as a deep layered Atlantic high pressure system gradually rebuilds.

Friday: An upper level low situated over the tip of the Florida Panhandle and eastern to central Cuba will add enhancement to a surface trough across the just mentioned areas. Some scattered showers will be anticipated. TW #40 will continue to drift over Jamaica spreading some showers while showing signs of weakening. Further eastward across the Greater Antilles, the high pressure system will maintain dominance allowing for mostly fair weather. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from the previous day is expected.

Saturday: TW#40 will progress farther westward generating some showers along its journey which will be offered some enhancement from the aforementioned trough/low over the Florida panhandle which is expected to drift south westward. The monsoon trough across Costa Rica and Panama will maintain some convection. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from previous day is expected.

Sunday: Shallow low level moisture will spread a few isolated showers across the Greater Antilles which may be enhanced by upper level troughing over the basin.

Monday: In the low to mid levels, the high pressure system will dominate. However upper level troughing over the basin will continue to initiate some shower activity.
Meteorologist Tia Browne