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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20220127 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

Pockets of moisture and instability within the surface to mid-level ridge pattern continued triggering occasionally cloudy skies and scattered light to moderate showers across Barbados and the southern Windwards throughout the night. Meanwhile, the Leewards experienced a gradual transition from fair skies to occasional cloudiness and similar shower activity as low-level moisture within the ridge also moved across the islands. From the overnight rainfall, Barbados experienced maximum accumulations of 6.6 mm over the central regions of the island, while totals of 4.0 mm 0.4 mm, 1.8 mm and 1.4mm were reported from north, south, east and western sections of the island respectively. Here at our Charnocks location, 0.5mm of rainfall was recorded.

Conditions were similar across Trinidad and Tobago under the influence of the surface to mid-level ridge pattern as well, while the Guianas experienced comparatively more cloud cover and shower activity due to a trough which affected the area.

Winds across the region were light to moderate with speeds peaking around 17 knots both in St. Lucia and Barbados. Seas were moderate in open water with swells peaking near 2.0 meters.
Western Caribbean

A frontal boundary associated with an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico generated cloudy skies and some scattered showers over northern Bahamas and western sections of Cuba. Meanwhile, a surface to mid-level ridge pattern remained dominant across the remainder of the region, resulting in generally fair conditions across the other islands.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: A surface to mid-level ridge pattern will remain the dominant synoptic feature across the region. During the morning, cloudy skies and showers will persist across the Windwards while conditions gradually improve across Barbados. Across the Leewards, a weak perturbation within the easterly flow will trigger occasionally cloudy skies and brief showers approaching afternoon.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 29/21.

Friday: A surface to mid-level ridge pattern will remain the dominant feature and low-level moisture and instability will continue to trigger occasionally cloudy skies and brief showers mainly across the region.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 29/21.

Saturday: No change in the synoptic feature is expected. Similarly, no significant changes in the weather conditions are expected.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 29/21.

Sunday: No significant change in weather conditions is anticipated.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 29/21.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall and weaken across the northern Bahamas. As such, conditions will improve across western Cuba and unsettled conditions will persist during the day across the northern Bahamas, with an improvement by early night. Elsewhere, the Atlantic high-pressure system will be dominant and a few low-level perturbations within the easterly flow will trigger occasionally cloudy skies and brief showers.

Friday: A deep-layered ridge pattern will be dominant across the western Caribbean. Apart from a few localized afternoon showers mostly fair weather is forecast. Toward nightfall, a mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to develop just off the Eastern Sea Board.

Saturday: As the aforementioned mid-latitude cyclone and associated cold frontal boundary move eastwards, unsettled conditions will spread across the Bahamas and Cuba. During the night, conditions will improve across the northern Bahamas and across western Cuba, with a dry and stable airmass residing over the area. Elsewhere, the ridge pattern will remain dominant.

Sunday: The frontal boundary will continue slowly across the basin and eventually weaken and transition into a shear line. This feature is expected to stall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola sustaining cloudy skies and scattered showers, while a ridge pattern remains dominant elsewhere.
Meteorologist Jonathan Alleyne