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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20211016 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

************************* TROPICAL WAVE(S) AT 2AM/1800UTC **************************

A tropical wave was analyzed along 66/67W south of 13N moving west near 10 to 15 knots.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 48W south of 13N moving west near 10 to 15 knots.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 33W south of 15N moving west near 10 knots.

*********************************************************************************************
Overnight: A surface to mid-level ridge was the dominant feature across Barbados, the southern and the central Windward Islands. In addition, a relatively dry atmosphere was present over these islands. As a result, mostly clear skies were observed across this section of the island chain. Here in Barbados at BMS location, 0.1mm of rainfall was recorded overnight. Meanwhile, a surface to low-level confluent pattern combined with adequate atmospheric moisture and mid to upper-level instability affected the Leewards and the northern Windwards. These conditions generated cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms across the majority of the aforementioned islands.

Further south over Trinidad and Tobago, a surface to low-level ridge was the dominant feature. This feature combined with a relatively dry atmosphere resulted in mostly fair weather across the twin-island republic. A similar synoptic pattern was present across the Guianas and generally fair skies were reported. However, as the night progressed, low-level moisture associated with the ITCZ drifted over sections of northern French Guiana and Suriname generating a few brief showers under partly cloudy to cloudy skies.

Winds across the region were light to moderate with wind speeds peaking near 16 knots in Grenada and 9 knots here in Barbados. Sea conditions were slight to moderate in open water with swells ranging between 0.5m and 1.5m.
Western Caribbean

Overnight: The combination of a deep-layered confluence pattern and deep-layered moisture across the central and the eastern Caribbean generated scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over that area. While, a mid to upper-level low over Cuba triggered a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the island during the early part of the night. Elsewhere, a a low-level ridge was the dominant feature and fair to partly cloudy skies were observed.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: A surface to low-level ridge will be the dominant feature across Barbados and the Windwards. As a result, mostly fair weather conditions can be expected across these islands. Meanwhile over the Leewards, surface to low-level confluence combined with adequate deep-layered moisture and mid to upper-level instability is likely to trigger some scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/24.

Sunday: No significant change in weather conditions from the previous day is expected. However, a slackening of the pressure gradient across the region will result in a decrease in wind speed of around 10 knots. Overnight, a tropical wave analyzed along 48W (at 0600 UTC) will be approaching Barbados.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/24.

Monday: A weak tropical wave will drift across Barbados and the Windwards. Model data is indicating a mix of sunshine and cloudy periods with some scattered showers.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 30/24.

Tuesday: After a few early morning showers from moisture trailing the aforementioned tropical wave, a ridge pattern will rebuild across the island allowing for mostly fair weather conditions.

Barbados forecast Max/Min Temps: 31/24.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: The combination of deep-layered confluence and deep-layered moisture across the central and the eastern Caribbean will generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over that area. While, a mid to upper-level low over Cuba is likely to trigger a few showers and convective activity.

Sunday: Model data is indicating some weakening of the aforementioned low over Cuba. At the same time, a ridge pattern will build across the eastern and central Caribbean. As a result, a mix of clear skies with cloudy periods and a few showers will be anticipated. By nighttime, a frontal boundary moving across the northern Bahamas and western Cuba will produce cloudy skies and scattered showers over that region.

Monday: The aforementioned frontal boundary will maintain cloudy skies and scattered across the northern Bahamas and western Cuba as the feature creep across that region. Elsewhere, a ridge pattern with moisture embedded within the trades will be the dominant feature allowing for a mix of clear skies with cloudy periods and a few showers.

Tuesday: The aforementioned frontal boundary will produce cloudy skies and scattered across the central Bahamas, western and central Cuba as the feature continues to creep across that region. Elsewhere, no significant change in weather conditions from the previous day is expected.
Meteorologist Andrew Daniel