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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
http://www.BarbadosWeather.org
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20220807 PERIOD: Evening

Eastern Caribbean

***************************** TROPICAL WAVES (2PM/1800UTC) *************************

A tropical wave was analyzed along 77W south of 13N and is moving west at 10 to 15 knots.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 67W south of 17N and is moving west at 15 to 20 knots.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 42W south of 13N and is moving west at 15 to 20 knots.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 32W south of 17N and is moving west at 15 to 20 knots.

A tropical wave was analyzed along 18W south of 16N and is moving west at 15 to 20 knots. A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form around the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

********************************************************************************************
A shear line along with a favourable upper-level pattern generated cloudy to overcast skies, scattered light to moderate, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms across Barbados, the northern and central Windwards. Here at Charnocks, 0.3mm of rainfall was recorded today and the maximum temperature reached 30.5C. Rainfall accumulations across Barbados ranged from 0.2mm to 8.0mm while maximum temperatures across the island ranged from 28.6C in the higher elevations to 32.6C in the urban northwest.

Across the remainder of the Eastern Caribbean and the twin-island republic of Trinidad and Tobago, a ridge pattern was the dominant feature and conditions were mostly fair. Meanwhile, across the Guianas, daytime heating triggered afternoon convective activity.

Winds across the region were light to moderate peaking at 15 knots here in Barbados and in Grenada. Seas remained slight to moderate in open water with swells ranging from 1.0m to 2.0
Western Caribbean

Several synoptic features, including a tropical wave currently along 67W, a low-level trough, a favourable upper-level divergent pattern and a surface to low-level shear line generated cloudy skies, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. Additionally, diurnal heating and a favourable upper-level pattern associated with a TUTT low generated afternoon convective activity across Jamaica, Cuba and northern and western Bahamas. Elsewhere, a ridge pattern was dominant and conditions were mostly fair.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: A surface to low-level shear line in combination with a favourable upper-level pattern will generate cloudy to overcast skies, scattered showers, periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms across the Windwards overnight. Here in Barbados, the shear line will continue to generate some occasional cloudiness and brief scattered showers. Conditions will begin to slowly improve across the northern Windwards., during the late night As for the remainder of the region, a ridge pattern will be the dominant feature and conditions will be mostly fair.

Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 26/23.

Monday: The surface to low-level shear line will move southwards and conditions will begin to slowly improve across Barbados and the central Windwards as the day progresses. Meanwhile, a weak low-level trough will generate some occasional cloudiness and brief showers across the northern Windwards. Elsewhere, a ridge pattern will be dominant and no significant change in forecast conditions is projected. A tropical wave will be approaching Barbados and the southern portion of the region.

Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 30/24.

Tuesday: The tropical wave, currently at 42W will generate occasional cloudiness and brief light showers in Barbados and across the southern Windwards. Meanwhile, conditions will improve across the northern Windwards. Elsewhere, a ridge pattern will be dominant and mostly fair conditions will prevail.

Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 30/24.

Wednesday: Surface to low-level instability trailing the tropical wave will continue to generate some cloudiness and brief showers across Barbados and the southern Windwards. Elsewhere, no significant change is anticipated.

Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 30/24.

Thursday: A ridge pattern will be dominant across the region and no significant shower activity is anticipated during the daytime. However, by nightfall, moisture ande instability ahead of the tropical wave currently at 32W will generate an increase in cloudiness and showers.

Barbados Forecast Max/Min Temps: 30/24.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Tonight: The trough will move across the southern Bahamas, generating cloudy to overcast skies, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the tropical wave currently at 67W will continue to generate unsettled conditions across. Conditions will begin to improve across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a ridge pattern rebuilds. Conditions will also improve across Cuba, Jamaica and northern and western Bahamas as the night progresses. Elsewhere, a ridge pattern will be dominant and mostly fair conditions will prevail.

Monday: The tropical wave and low-level trough will continue to move westwards across the region and a favourable upper-level pattern will ensure unsettled conditions spread to the remainder of the Bahamas, Jamaica and Cuba. Elsewhere, a ridge pattern will be the dominant feature and a few low-level cloud patches could trigger brief light showers.

Tuesday: The combination of a favourable upper-level pattern associated with a lifting TUTT low and the tropical wave will cause the persistence of unsettled conditions across sections of Cuba and Jamaica. Conditions will improve across the Bahamas. A weak low-level trough will exit the Eastern Caribbean and generate some cloudiness and showers across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Wednesday: A ridge pattern will be the dominant feature across the region and a few low-level cloud patches could trigger brief light showers.

Thursday: Guidance suggests that a favourable upper-level pattern will develop across sections of the Greater Antilles and that in combination with diurnal heating will generate afternoon thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere, no significant change is projected.
Meteorologist Cherise Brathwaite