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Barbados Meteorological Services
Charnocks ChCh
Weather Discussion
Initial to 4 days discussion based on Satellite imagery,BMS Radar composite,S.P.I.E products,GEM, GFS, WW3, UKMET and BMS WRF modeling, surface and upper air observations, Satellite derived products.
DATE: 20210727 PERIOD: Morning

Eastern Caribbean

************************* TROPICAL WAVES AT 2AM/0600UTC **************************

A tropical wave was analyzed along 30W south of 17N moving west at 10 to 15 knots.


The Atlantic high pressure system was the dominant feature across the region with fair to occasionally cloudy skies and only brief light showers reported across the area. Here at the BMS' Charnocks station, no significant rainfall was recorded overnight between 6pm to 6am.

Further south, cloudy skies with some showers were experienced across Trinidad and Tobago as a result of weak low level convergence. Across the Guianas, cloudy skies with showers and isolated thunderstorms were prevalent as a result of low level troughing within the Guianas.

Winds across the region were light to moderate peaking around 17 knots in here in St. Lucia. Seas remained slight to moderate in open water with swells ranging from 0.5m to 1.5m.
Western Caribbean

Fair to occasionally cloudy skies were recorded across the western Caribbean as a low level ridge pattern dominanted weather conditions.
Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Today: A TUTT just east of the Leewards with a strong reflection in the low/mid levels will sustain a trough producing a few showers across the northern section of the island chain. Across Barbados and the remainder of the island chain, generally dry conditions are anticipated to be sustained as a surface to low level ridge pattern will be dominant.

Barbados forecast: Max/Min Temps: 31/25.

Wednesday: The aforementioned TUTT over the eastern Caribbean will shift slightly westward. With it, the troughing in the low/mid levels will also shift westwards sustaining a occasionally cloudy skies and a few showers. Across Barbados and the southern Windwards, there will be an increase in low to mid level moisture. Subsequently, this equatorial moisture is likely to result in increased cloudiness, showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.

Barbados forecast: Max/Min Temps: 30/25.

Thursday: The instability previously spoken about on Wednesday across Barbados and the southern Windwards will decrease as the high-pressure system regains dominance and a drier airmass moves over the area. Similar conditions will be observed across the Leewards and northern Windwards. This ridging will be short-lived as the tropical wave analyzed along XXW will be approaching Barbados and the region. Low level instability and cloud ahead of the wave axis will a few showers.

Barbados forecast: Max/Min Temps: 31/25.

Friday: The tropical wave will be affecting Barbados and the region spreading some light to moderate scattered showers. The heaviest of the shower activity is likely to be across Barbados and the southern Windwards.

Barbados forecast: Max/Min Temps: 30/24.
Western Caribbean Outlook

Today: A TUTT low will over western Cuba will continue to shift westward enhancing convection over Jamaica and Cuba. Across the remainder of the region, a ridge pattern will be dominant with a few occasional showers expected.

Wednesday: A surface to mid-level trough will bring a few showers across the USVI and Puerto Rico. Reduced low-level moisture across Jamaica and Cuba will ensure fairer weather conditions whilst the remainder of the region will observe a ridge pattern.

Thursday: The aforementioned trough will move across Hispaniola producing some showers there. Elsehwere, a ridge pattern will be the dominant synoptic feature with areas of confluence within the ridge expected to produce a few showers. It should also be noted another TUTT and associated low center will move westwards across Puerto Rico towards Hispaniola.

Friday: An influx of equatorial moisture will move over Hispaniola. This along with the presence of a TUTT low over Hispaniola is likely to facilitate some thunderstorms and moderate to heavy showers. Elsewhere, no significant change is expected.
Meteorologist Christophe Martin