Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;572830
AXNT20 KNHC 241600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun May 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 28W from 12N southward, moving westward
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the
Monsoon Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from the equator to 05N between
26W and 31W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 58W, south of 12N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
09N between 58W and 61W, including coastal and inland areas of
Guyana and Venezuela.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of
15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is
nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres
Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. No
significant convection is noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and
continues southwestward to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N31W
to 01N50W. Outside of the convection related to the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N east of
20W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection persists from 24N
to 31N between 90W and 97W. This includes a squall line analyzed
along 25N between 91W and 97W. This convection, enhanced by upper
level divergence, will continue through the afternoon, and provide
for locally strong winds. Weak 1011 mb low pressure is co-
located in the Bay of Campeche with the diurnal trough. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail across the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into
the Gulf region. This system will continue to support a gentle to
moderate E to SE wind flow through the middle of the week, with
the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from
the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local
effects associated with a thermal trough. An upper-level
disturbance continues to enhance the development of numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf, more concentrated
over the NW part of the basin. These thunderstorms are capable of
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally rough seas.
The SE flow will continue to advect abundant tropical moisture
through at least the middle of the week helping to induce more
convective activity across the Gulf waters. Mariners are urged to
keep up with the latest forecast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the
Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong trades in the
central Caribbean, including off the southern tip of Hispaniola,
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to
fresh per the latest scatterometer data. Seas are 4-7 ft across
the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through at least
Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trades will pulse each evening
over the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Fresh trades
elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage
starting Mon as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift
southeastward tightening the pressure gradient.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic waters, providing
moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin. Winds
are light to gentle north of 25N, in closer proximity to high
pressures centered north of the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds are forecast to increase over
most of the waters S of 25N starting Mon, including the waters
between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the
Windward Passage as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to
shift east-southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. The
high pressure will then begin to weaken Wed allowing for the tight
pressure gradient to slacken leading to diminishing winds. Fresh
to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola through Tue night
into Wed. The western part of a cold front will push south across
the eastern portion of the area from tonight into early Mon before
stalling near 27N, and dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong
northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the
front, subsiding late Tue.

$$
Mahoney

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