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Tropical Weather Discussion


AXNT20 KNHC 182349

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 07N-18N
along 23W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a strong deep layer
environment and is being affected by dry and dust air intrusion
in the lower levels as depicted in GOES-16 water vapor and
enhanced IR imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N
between 16W-23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with
axis extending from 08N-20N along 40W, moving W at 15 kt. The
wave is entering a low deep layer wind shear environment, however
is being severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust, which
hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
07N-18N along 64W, moving W at 15 kt. Both CIRA LPW and GOES-16
water vapor imagery show the northern wave environment being
affected by low level dry air, which is limiting the convection to
scattered moderate across the Windward Islands and SE Caribbean S
of 14N E of 65W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 09N-20N along 80W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a
moderate to strong deep layer wind shear environment and mostly a
dry enviromnent. Shallow moisture in the northern wave environment
and diffluent wind aloft support scattered showers and tstms from
18N-21N between 76W-81W.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 14N16W
to 07N23W to 09N39W. The ITCZ begins near 09N39W and continues to
09N52W to 11N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section, scattered showers are from 07N-10N between



The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across Florida and the
entire Gulf reaching also eastern Mexico. The ridge is providing
return flow in the range of 5-10 kt across the region except in
the north-central Gulf where scattered heavy showers and tstms
enhance the wind to fresh. The area of convection is N of 27N
between 85W and 93W and is being supported by inflow of shallow
moisture from the Caribbean by southeasterly wind and middle level
diffluent flow. Evening heating is also procucing scattered
moderate convection over the Florida Peninsula, Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin
through Wed. Showers over the N-central and NE basin are forecast
to continue through Sun morning.


Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. An upper
level low is centered over W Cuba near 22N83W enhancing the
convection over Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted over Hispaniola, N Venezuela, N Colombia,
Panama, Costa Rica, E Nicaragua, and E Honduras. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending from the Atlantic to the northern half
of the basin, continues to support fresh to strong winds in the
south- central Caribbean. The center of high pressure SW of the
Bahamas will stall the next several days, which will allow the
continuation of these winds in the south-central basin. Showers
will prevail in the SE Caribbean through Sunday.


The Bermuda high and the Azores high covers most of the Atlc ocean
mainly supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge is
analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 30N54W SW to
27N60W. Scattered showers and tstms are within 120 nm either side
of the trough. Isolated showers are across the Bahamas. For
further information associated with the tropical waves, see
section above.

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