Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;003704
AXNT20 KNHC 022125
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning and large swell:
Gale force winds around the post-tropical low of Imelda are
covering the waters N of 27.5N between 55W and 66W. Seas 12 ft or
greater in swell generated from this system cover the waters N of
25N between 54W and 76W, with seas peaking around 25 ft near
31N58W. The post-tropical low of Imelda will shift NE. The gale
force winds around the low will shift N of the area tonight as the
system continues moving further from the area. The large swell,
and associated 12 ft seas, will shift eastward and gradually
subside through the first half of the weekend. Seas are forecast
to subside below 12 ft late Sat night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 19N
southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 18N
southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.5N17W and extends
to 08N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 09N between 10W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A pair of surface troughs are generating scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from the Bay of Campeche eastward to
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel, and isolated
thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds,
and seas of 3-5 ft, are noted over the NW Gulf as well as the far
SW Gulf. Elsewhere light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-2 ft
prevail.

For the forecast, strong high pressure is located over the NE
United States. The pressure gradient between this system and a
developing low pressure forecast to move across the Florida
Peninsula into the Gulf during the next day or two will lead to
fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas in the NE Gulf
tonight, expanding into the north- central and NW Gulf Fri through
Sat night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can also
be expected in these areas. Winds and seas will diminish Sun when
the low pressure lift north and out of the Gulf region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range in
the central Caribbean, and 1-2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the
basin through the forecast period, supporting gentle to moderate
trade winds and slight to moderate seas. Meanwhile, northerly swell
generated by post-tropical cyclone Imelda will propagate across NE
Caribbean passages, including the waters just E of the Leeward
Islands, building seas to 8 or 9 ft Fri through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features about a gale warning and large
swell associated with post-tropical cyclone Imelda.

A frontal trough extends from the post-tropical low of Imelda near
32N58W to near 24N70W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of this boundary. Outside the gale
warning area, fresh to strong winds cover the discussion waters N
of 26N between 49W and 70W. Seas greater than 8 ft from swell
generated by Imelda cover the waters N of 23N and W of 55W. High
pressure prevails across the waters E of 50W and N of 20N,
anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 30N35W. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, generally prevail over these
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds across the NE waters
associated with post-tropical cyclone Imelda are forecast to
diminish below gale force by tonight as the system moves further
from the area. A building ridge over the western Atlantic
combined with a frontal boundary extending roughly along 24N/25N
will support fresh to strong winds across most of the area likely
through Sun. Long period northerly swell generated by post-
tropical cyclone Imelda will continue to affect just about the
entire forecast domain through early next week. Meanwhile, an area
of low pressure may may form along the frontal boundary near the
northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida during the next day or
two. Any additional development is expected to be slow to occur as
the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula and
into the Gulf of America.

$$
AL

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