Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;785241
AXNT20 KNHC 202149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 27W, south of
16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of
20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 18N16W to
05N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N
and east of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating
light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak ridging across the southeastern U.S. will
maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin
through mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated
surface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through
the midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area.
Looking ahead, a cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu
night through Fri, leading to a modest increase in winds across
the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high
pressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper-
level low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and northwestern
Caribbean through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 34.4N
32.7W at 20/2100 UTC or 350 nm SW of the Azores, moving NNE at 5
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters.
Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W,
except reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern
Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of
45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient
across the western Atlantic will promote variable gentle to
moderate winds across forecast waters through early Thu. A
vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America and Florida, and
abundant tropical moisture across the Atlantic will force
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W
through Wed. Low pressure will deepen offshore of the middle
Atlantic coast of the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold
front to move into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through
Fri. The front will be accompanied by increasing winds and the
potential for large N-NE swell.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay will strengthen to a hurricane near
34.3N 32.3W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 33.6N
32.5W Mon afternoon, move to 32.5N 33.5W Tue morning, 31.4N 35.1W
Tue afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 30.5N 36.8W Wed
morning, and 29.8N 38.7W Wed afternoon. Fay will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 29.0N 42.0W Thu afternoon.

$$
AL

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