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Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;853633
AXNT20 KNHC 171750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is centered near 22.4N 95.7W
at 17/1500 UTC or 120 nm E of Tampico Mexico moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. On the forecast track,
the system will approach the northern Gulf coast Friday and Friday
night. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night. There is a high chance for
tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. See latest NHC
forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W, from 13N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within
120 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 10N-22N between 53W-62W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 19N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is within 240
nm of the wave axis S of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 09N20W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N38W to the
coast of French Guyana near 05N52W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N-12N between 16W-
34W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 06N-09N
between 46W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is over the Gulf of Mexico. See
above.

As of 17/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from S Florida near 26N80W
to 26N86W. A quasi-stationary front continues from 26N86W to
26N92W to 25N95W to 22N96W to 20N97W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 19N-30N between 85W-97W.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move to 23.7N 94.2W this
evening, 25.8N 91.0W Fri morning, 28.5N 88.0W Fri evening, become
extratropical and move to 30.9N 85.0W Sat morning, and 35.5N 77.2W
Sun morning. Sixteen will change little in intensity as it moves
to the 37.5N 70.0W early Mon, and continue to the 38.0N 66.5W Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean and another is
approaching the E Caribbean. See above.

Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel and the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, scattered showers are N of the ABC Islands
near 13N68W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level high
is centered over the NW Caribbean near 20N82W. Strong subsidence
is over the Caribbean from N of 14N between 60W-86W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin
through the weekend, with fresh SE winds likely across NW portions
Fri and Sat as low pressure deepens across the Gulf of Mexico. A
tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles today, and move
across the eastern Caribbean on Fri. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will accompany this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 17/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from
31N71W to S Florida near 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 27N-30N between 68W-73W. A surface trough is over the central
Atlantic from 30N56W to 25N59W depicted by a wind shift. Another
surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 23N30W to 18N31W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-26N between 25W-31W. A
1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 31N23W. Of note in the
upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central
atlantic with axis from 31N47W to 21N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 24N between 44W-52W. An upper level low is also
centered over the E Atlantic near 27N31W enhancing convection.

The W Atlantic cold front will push eastward into the central
Atlantic through Fri night, but the tail end of the front will
stall and weaken east of Florida by Fri morning. A developing
area of low pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will move across the
SE U.S. this weekend, and is likely to produce strong southerly
winds ahead of the low across NW Atlc waters.

$$
Formosa