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Tropical Weather Discussion


AXNT20 KNHC 011729

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean this
evening as a high pressure builds over the southwest Atlantic.
Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of
Colombia, with gale conditions during the evening, overnight,
and early morning hours, starting this evening through Saturday
night. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of
Colombia. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near
10N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03S30W to
the coast of South America at 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over a large area within 300 nm either side of the



A 1032 mb high over the central Atlantic is producing ridging
over the Gulf of Mexico. 10-20 kt SE winds are over the Gulf,
with strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Radar imagery shows
isolated showers over the Straits of Florida. Fair weather is
over the remainder of the Gulf. A cold front is inland over SE
Texas approaching the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level
high is centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Most
of the Gulf has SW upper level flow. Upper level moisture is
over the N Gulf States, while strong subsidence is over the
Gulf. Expect the cold front to reach the Texas coast this
evening with convection, and 25 kt northerly winds behind the


Gale to near gale winds are pulsing along the coast of N
Colombia. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are over N Venezuela, Windward
Islands, Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Furthermore, scattered showers are now
advecting over Central America from the Caribbean. In the upper
levels, ridging is over the W Caribbean W of 70W, while the base
of an upper level trough is over the E Caribbean. Strong
subsidence covers the entire Caribbean and Central America.
Expect clusters of scattered showers to continue to move W over
the Caribbean, within the tradewind flow, during the next 24-48


Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola moving W in the
tradewind flow. Water vapor imagery shows very dry air/strong
subsidence aloft over the entire island, thus thunderstorms are
not likely. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.


A 1032 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
34N56W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N37W to
24N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1023
mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N17W. Of note in the upper
levels, a large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic
N of 20N between 30W-65W. Expect over the next 24 hour for the
cold front to move E to 31N31W with showers. Also expect another
cold front to enter the W Atlantic on Thursday evening with

For additional information please