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Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;075299
AXNT20 KNHC 250528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W from 02N to 19N, moving W
at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection associated to this wave is
noted from 03N to 10N between 23W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W from 04N to 19N, moving W
at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N
between 55W and 61W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, and extends from
Venezuela northward toward Hispaniola, moving W at 20 kt.
Isolated showers are near the wave's axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from western Cuba across
central America into the eastern North Pacific. Scattered showers
with embedded tstms are noted across much of Cuba and the
surrounding waters.

Another tropical wave is near 91W, and extends from the SW Gulf
into the eastern north Pacific region. This wave is currently
generating scattered showers and tstms over portions of southern
Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 16N16W to
09N20W to 07N24W. The ITCZ continues from 07N24W to 04N40W to
05N51W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N
between 30W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered near 22N99W. This upper low is
helping to generate scattered showers over the NW Gulf. The low
will drift further westward while weakening by Tue. This system
will continue to enhance convection across the western Gulf, and
likely across the states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz in Mexico on
Mon, as well as over southern Texas. Active afternoon convection
across Florida has propagated into the eastern Gulf waters west of
Florida.

A surface ridge prevails over the northern Gulf waters,
supporting moderate to fresh SE return flow over the northwestern
Gulf. High pressure will continue to prevail over the northern
Gulf, maintaining the moderate to fresh SE return flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A series of tropical waves will move westward across the tropical
north Atlantic and Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week.
Currently, two tropical waves are propagating across the basin,
one moving across the western Caribbean, and another tropical
wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please, see Tropical
Waves section for more details. Expect increasing showers and
isolated thunderstorms in association with the passage of these
tropical waves.

Fresh to strong winds are noted across the central and eastern
Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are near gal;e
force off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds prevailing elsewhere. Sea heights of near 11 ft are noted
over the south- central Caribbean, with seas expected to build to
near 13 ft over this area early this morning. Areal coverage of
fresh to strong trades will decrease over the next few days, with
strong winds mainly over the south- central Caribbean by midweek.
Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong the next couple of
nights in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 31N54W extends a ridge
westward across the forecast area. Moderate to fresh trades are
noted south of the high pressure center in the tradewind belt E
of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W. Altimeter data indicate sea
heights of near 10 ft within this area of winds. This high
pressure will remain nearly stationary through Tue while
weakening. As result, the pressure gradient will loosen with
slightly diminishing winds and subsiding seas E of the Lesser
Antilles by midweek. Nocturnal winds will continue to pulse to
fresh to strong the next several nights off Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AL