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Tropical Weather Discussion


AXNT20 KNHC 231034

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 01S30W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
monsoon trough from 04N-06N between 10W-14W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ.


A 1021 mb high is centered over S Giorgia near 31N82W. 10-20 kt
E to SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with the
weakest winds over the NE Gulf, and strongest winds over the W
Gulf. Broken high clouds are along the coast of Texas. Fair
weather is over the remainder of the Gulf.

High pressure will prevail across the area through Wed, then
retreat eastward. This will enable a cold front to move into the
NW Gulf on Thu. The front will move across the gulf waters,
reaching the far eastern Gulf by Fri evening, where it will become
stationary and weaken to a trough Sat. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected with this frontal system.


Isolated moderate convection is over E Panama, N Colombia, and W
Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto
Rico, and Hispaniola. More scattered showers are over central
Honduras, N Nicaragua, W Panama, and NW Venezuela. 10-20 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with
strong subsidence prevails.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the south
central and eastern Caribbean through tonight. The trade winds
will slowly diminish thereafter. A cold front may move into the
northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the
week into next weekend.


In the western Atlantic, a stationary front enters the basin near
31N69W to 25N72W. A surface trough continues from that point to
Haiti near 20N73W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm
of the front. In the central Atlantic, a 1011 mb low is centered
near 26N51W. A surface trough extends from the low to 20N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NE quadrant of the
low mainly north 25N between 42W-50W.

The stationary front and trough will gradually dissipate through
Wed. A cold front will move off the southeastern United States
coast Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty
winds, associated with this system are expected to affect much of
the northwestern waters Fri through Sat night.

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