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Tropical Weather Discussion


AXNT20 KNHC 171734

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.



NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to
17 feet, are off the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between
74W and 77W. Expect the gale-force winds to continue through Sun
morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the NWS National Hurricane Center
website, for more


The 6-hour forecast starting at 17/1800 UTC, calls for gale-
force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 13
feet, from 28N to 31N between 49W and 60W. Please read the latest
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the NWS National
Hurricane Center website,for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N40W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S47W. Isolated moderate convection is along the
monsoon trough and ITCZ from 00N-04N between 10W-50W.


As of 17/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Everglades City Florida
near 26N81W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W. A
stationary front continues to Galveston Texas near 29N95W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. A small area of
scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from
19N-21N between 94W-95W. 15-20 kt easterly winds are over the
Gulf of Mexico.

In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis
along 80W. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf. Broken to overcast
upper level clouds are over N Mexico and Texas.

The current surface fronts will gradually stall and weaken from
the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast tonight into Sat. High
pressure building behind the front will support strong easterly
winds and building seas over the NE Gulf tonight through Sat. A
second cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat evening, extend
from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico on Sun, then pass SE
of the region by late Mon. This front will bring strong winds to
most of the Gulf, with near gale force winds in the SW Gulf Sun
night through Mon night.


Gale-force winds are along the coast of N Colombia. 15-30 kt
tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea with
weakest winds over the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered
moderate convection is over Belize, NE Guatemala, and the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered showers are over Honduras, Nicaragua, and
Costa Rica.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W. An
upper level trough is over the NE Caribbean. Strong subsidence
covers the entire Caribbean, Central America, and N South America.

High pressure centered well north of the Caribbean will continue
to support gales off the coast of Colombia through Sun morning,
with gales likely to pulse again Sun night. Strong to near gale
force winds are expected in the NW Caribbean through Sat in the
wake of an approaching cold front. Strong winds will develop in
the NE Caribbean Sat evening through Sun night as the front stalls
over the region. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the
area early next week. Another cold front may bring strong
northerly winds to the NW Caribbean Mon night and Tue.


As of 17/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N57W
to 26N70W to Miami Florida near 25.5N80W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front. A gale is forecast to start shortly.
See above. Surface ridging is over the E Atlantic N of 20N E of

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
E Atlantic N of 15N between 35W-50W.

The current cold front will reach from the central Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida tonight, then stall near the Greater Antilles
late Sat into Sun. Strong winds are expected behind the front
through Sat night, while large seas in northerly swell will
persist through Mon night. Another cold front will move off the
southeast U.S. coast Sun and cross the offshore waters through
early next week.

$$ Formosa