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Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;015554
AXNT20 KNHC 241048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 04N10W, curving to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W, to
01N17W, 03N22W, 01N30W, to the Equator along 36W. A small
section of the ITCZ is in the coastal waters of Brazil, from 03S
to 04S between 33W and 38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong from 07N southward between 07W and 16W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 60 nm to 160 nm to the north of
the ITCZ between 26W and 31W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from
08N southward from 45W eastward. Scattered strong in the coastal
waters of Brazil, and inland, from 01N to 04N between 46W and
52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, toward the coast of Mexico near
23N98W. A cold front is moving through west Texas, now. The cold
front is forecast to move off the Texas Gulf coast this evening.

Fresh S flow is expected today, in advance of a cold front that
will move off the TX coast this evening. Strong high pressure
will surge S through the Southern Plains, and reinforce this
cold front on Tuesday, causing it to surge SE. This front should
stretch from the FL Panhandle to the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico by Tuesday night. The front should clear SE of the area
on Wednesday night. Strong N gales will develop in the SW Gulf
of Mexico on Wednesday, and continue through Wednesday night.
Strong N winds and higher seas are expected elsewhere. High
pressure will settle into the area for the end of the week,
bringing improving conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 22N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
20N64W, across NW Puerto Rico, through the Mona Passage, to the
southern coastal waters of Hispaniola, and Haiti, near 17N74W.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the
front, and from 20N to 23N between 70W and 77W, between Cuba and
the Bahamas.

A surface trough is along 14N78W 17N83W 19N88W, from 220 nm to
the south of Jamaica, to the eastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 15N
northward from 75W westward.

A second surface trough, is in the easternmost part of the
Caribbean Sea, along 61W/62W from 10N to 20N. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are from 16N southward between 58W and 67W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean, within 30 nm on either
side of 21N56W 18N58W.

Strong NE-to-E winds will pulse each night off the coast of
Colombia into the weekend. The current cold front, will become
stationary, and dissipate with time, today and tonight. Fresh to
strong E to NE winds are expected in the lees of Cuba and
Hispaniola, and in the Windward Passage into Tuesday, to the NW
of the current frontal boundary. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean Sea on Wednesday evening. The front will stretch from
central Cuba to Honduras by Thursday night. The cold front will
move toward the central Caribbean Sea, while weakening, into the
weekend. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N54W, through 30N54W, to 22N60W,
20N64W, across NW Puerto Rico, through the Mona Passage, to the
southern coastal waters of Hispaniola, and Haiti, near 17N74W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120
nm to the ESE of the cold front, and within 60 nm to the WNW of
the cold front, from 23N northward. Isolated moderate elsewhere
from 18N to 23N between 55W and 60W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm
on either side of the rest of the front leading into the
Caribbean Sea, and from 20N to 23N between 70W and 77W between
Cuba and the Bahamas.

A 1014 mb occluded low pressure center is about 370 nm to the
WSW of the Canary Islands, and about 520 nm to the N of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Gale-force winds were being generated on the
northern side of the circulation during the last few days. The
low pressure center has been weakening with time. Expect strong
to near-gale force winds on the northern side of the circulation
now. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
surface cyclonic center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is within 1500 nm to the WSW of the center. Dense Saharan dust
has been moving across the Atlantic Ocean, with the low center,
between the Canary Islands and 40W. Expect the low pressure
center to continue in the same general area through Monday,
before weakening significantly on Tuesday. Precipitation:
isolated moderate within 180 nm of the center in the N
semicircle, and rainshowers are possible within 180
nm of the center in the S semicircle.

The current slowly-moving cold front will slide eastward across
the Virgin Islands today, and then dissipate on Tuesday. Long
period N swell will decay gradually into Tuesday, behind this
front. Strong S to SW winds will develop off the northern FL
coast tonight in advance of a cold front. These winds will
prevail through Tuesday evening, and then the front will move
off the SE US coast. This cold front will reach the Bahamas by
late Wednesday. The front will weaken as it reaches the far
eastern waters and Hispaniola by Friday. Some strong W to NW
winds are possible behind the front, mainly N of 27N.

$$
mt