Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;431552
AXNT20 KNHC 150450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues
southwestward to 11N20W. The ITCZ then continues from 11N20W to
09N33W, where it is broken by cyclonic surface winds around a
pair of surface lows to the north. The ITCZ then resumes at 09N45W
and extends westward to near 08N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 00N to 22N between 23W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1021 mb high is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 30N89W. The
pressure gradient between this high and low pressures to the south
of the basin are resulting in moderate to fresh NE winds and
moderate seas across near the Yucatan Channel. Moderate or weaker
E winds and slight seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will gradually slacken to light to gentle
over the weekend as high pressure across the Southeast of U.S.
moves toward the Florida Keys. Then, a ridge will continue to
dominate the Gulf region supporting a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow through early next week. Southerly return flow
will increase to fresh speeds across the western Gulf on Wed as
the pressure gradient tighten some across the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough parallels the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
Latest scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds
off central Colombia, and a concurrent altimeter satellite pass
showed moderate seas in that area. Fresh NE winds prevail off the
south coast of central Cuba. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds
persist elsewhere with moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh winds are noted in the NW Caribbean.
These winds will diminish by Sat. Fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight will also weaken as
the overall pressure gradient decreases, and a gentle to moderate
trade wind regime becomes established for the weekend. This
pattern will prevail through at least early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are active along a cold front extending from
31N56W southwestward to near 25N77W to 21N76W. To the E, a surface
trough is analyzed from 26N56W to 23N70W. Scattered showers are
also along the trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds seas are
evident south of 29N and west of 65W, with moderate NW to N winds
elsewhere west of the front. Moderate seas are W of the front.

An upper trough is active from 15N to 25N between 40W and 50W.
This is supporting a pair of 1012 mb low pressure areas near
12N35W and 12N43W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active
near these low pressure areas from 11N to 22N between 24W and
42W.

Over the eastern Atlantic, surface ridging prevails anchored by a
1018 mb high pressure centered north of the front near 26N39W.
Gentle to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere across the discussion
area. Combined rough seas in NW to N swell across the Atlantic
from 20N to 31N, east of 50W, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front in the W Atlantic will
stall from near 28N50W to N of Hispaniola Sat night. The
stationary boundary will then dissipate by the start of next week.
Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the
waters N of 29N Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the
N part of the forecast region Mon. Rough seas, in mainly northerly
swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early
next week.

$$
ERA

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