Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;022298
AXNT20 KNHC 111644
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for
northerly gales with severe gusts through 12/0000 UTC at least.
Very rough seas to around 13 ft (4 m) are likely with these
winds. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed
on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 03N20W,
where latest scatterometer satellite data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to below the Equator at 26W and to just
inland the coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 27W-31W,
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-38W, and within
30 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-32W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from a central Atlantic high pressure system
west-southwestward to NE Texas while low pressure is over eastern
Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low
pressure is allowing for mainly moderate to fresh southeast to
south winds across the basin, with the exception of light winds
in the far NE Gulf and light to gentle south winds over the far
west-central portion. Latest altimeter satellite data along with
the most current buoy observations reveal seas of 4 to 6 ft north
26N and seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 26N, including the Bay of
Campeche.

Patchy fog is noted over some sections of the central and western
Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will persist today
before shifting eastward through the remainder of the week. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over
Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh southeast to south
winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern
Yucatan and the western Gulf from the evenings and into early
morning hours. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, and
move southeastward before stalling across the southeastern part of
the Thu night, then dissipate Fri through Fri night. In the wake
of the front, north winds will increase to fresh to near gale-
force speeds, with seas building to 10 ft through Thu night,
before conditions improve early Fri as high pressure gradually
rebuilds across the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
precede the front tonight into early Thu. A stronger cold front
may approach early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure found in northern
South America is maintaining fresh to strong trades over the
central basin. Mostly fresh trades are elsewhere across the sea.
Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas of 8 to 11 ft
in the south-central part of the sea, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere south
of 18N east of about 82W, except locally higher near Atlantic
Passages, and 3 to 5 ft across the remainder of the basin
including the NW Caribbean.

Isolated showers are south of 14N and east of 69W.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trades over the central
part of the sea are expected to continue until early Thu, then
become confined to the south-central Caribbean afterward through
Sat. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse
near the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf
of Honduras through tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large
easterly trade wind swell from the Tropical North Atlantic will
maintain rough seas across the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve briefly
by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a
weak cold front that approaches the northwestern Caribbean. High
pressure will build across the Atlantic by the end of the weekend,
with fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the
Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in effect for the Meteo-France forecast zones of Agadir and
Tarfaya.

A 1028 mb high pressure system is north of the area centered
east-northeast of Bermuda near 34N56W. A ridge extends from the
high west-southwestward to central Florida and west-northwestward
from there to roughly along 31N. Recent scatterometer satellite
data reveals light to gentle to moderate southeast to south winds
from 27N to 29N west of 60W, gentle to moderate east winds south
of 27N west of 60W and mostly moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds elsewhere, including the entrance to the Windward Passage.
An area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds is present from
25N to 29N east of 34W. Another exception is northeast winds of
strong to near gale-force confined to north of 26N and east of
20W, including the waters surrounding the Canary Islands due to a
strong pressure gradient resulting from the difference in pressure
between a 1034 mb high pressure system north of the area and
relatively lower pressure in NW Africa. Latest altimeter satellite
data indicate seas of 8 to 11 ft north 20N east of 42W, and 6 to
8 ft south of 20N and E of 40W and from 09N to 17N between 52W and
the Lesser Antilles. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere southeast of
a line from 31N50W to 24N63W and to the southeastern Bahamas.
Lower seas of 3 to 5 ft are west of the same line, except for seas
of 2 to 4 ft east of northern and central Florida to near 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trades will
continue south of 25N through this evening as a ridge continues
near 32N. Southerly fresh to strong winds will develop off
northern Florida tonight ahead of an approaching cold front that
is expected to move offshore of northeast Florida by Thu evening,
with fresh to near gale- force winds and building seas behind it.
The front is then forecast to weaken and slow down from near
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will
prevail across the basin behind the front for the end of the week
and into the weekend, producing moderate to fresh trades, then
trades will strengthen by the end of the weekend, leading to fresh
to locally strong winds basin-wide, and rough seas over the
southeastern waters.

$$
Aguirre

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