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Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;284028
AXNT20 KNHC 150201 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
901 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will move into the western Atlantic this weekend
producing gale force winds behind the front, mainly N of 28N.
Gale-force winds are forecast from 30 to 40 kt and seas around
8-12 feet. These conditions are forecast to continue through
Sunday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A 1018 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 28N95W. A cold front
extends south from the low to 23N97W and continues into the
NW Mexico. The front will move SE across the basin through
Friday. In the wake of the front, gale-force winds are forecast
over the SW Gulf tonight with seas ranging between 8-12 ft.
These conditions will continue through late Friday. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends from 07N50W to 17N46W, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 260 nm E of
the axis. Water vapor imagery indicate the presence of drier air
near the wave axis from 13N south to 07N limiting convection in
the area.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 87W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the wave axis, mostly over the E Pacific and a few showers
inland near Honduras and Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N37W to 09N40W,
then resumes west of the tropical wave near 09N51W to 06N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 15W-45W.
Widespread showers and isolated tstorms are also noted from 11N-
20N between 33W-44W associated to an upper level trough near the
area. Drier air is present limiting convection along the ITCZ
near French Guiana and Suriname.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 28N95W with a cold front
extending south to 23n97W. Refer to the section above for details
on the Gale Warning behind this front. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted across the northern portion of the Gulf.
To the east, a surface trough extends from 26N85W to 29N86W. A
stationary front extends from S Florida near 25N80W to the SE Gulf
of Mexico near 26N85W to 21N88W to a 1013 mb low over the Bay of
Campeche near 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the front.

The stationary front will gradually become ill defined through
tonight. A new cold front extends from NE Mexico near 23N98W to
low pres in the Texas coastal waters near 28N96W will progress
E-SE through the basin before exiting late Fri. Meanwhile, another
low is forecast to form in the NE Gulf in the vicinity of 28N87W
along a trough. This low will shift NE and inland Fri as the cold
front merges. Gale force N winds are expected behind the front
offshore of Veracruz, Mexico late tonight through Fri night. Yet
another cold front may move into the western Gulf Mon, slowly
shifting E-SE across the basin Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean and eastern
Yucatan Peninsula mainly north of 19N between 84W-88W due to the
proximity of the stationary front in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Relatively dry air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean.
Scattered showers over the far SW Caribbean and over land from N
Colombia to Nicaragua are due to the east Pacific monsoon trough
and the tropical wave along 86W. Scatterometer data depicts light
to moderate trades across the basin.

A stationary front just N of the Yucatan channel will gradually
becoming ill defined tonight. A new cold front will move into the
far NW Caribbean late Fri, then gradually stall from eastern Cuba
to Nicaragua Sun. The remnants of the front will linger roughly
along 80W for the start of next week. Fresh to strong N winds will
follow this next cold front as it moves across the NW Caribbean.
Broad low pres may develop just to the E of, or over, the Lesser
Antilles this weekend into early next week. Otherwise, a weak pres
gradient across the basin will lead to generally moderate
tradewinds. NE swell will impact the Atlantic and Caribbean
passages Fri into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 30N57W to 27N62W, then
transitions to a stationary front across the western Atlantic to
northern Bahamas into S Florida near 25N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm E of the stationary front from North
of 25N-31N. A prefrontal trough extends from 23N57W to 29N57W
enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection 200 nm east of
the trough and north of 24N to 31N. Another surface trough is
over the tropical Atlantic from 24N69W to 26N62W with scattered
showers seen near the trough. To the south, a surface trough
extends from Hispaniola north to 22N69W. Scattered moderate
convection seen inland over Hispaniola. A 1035 mb high is over
the E Atlantic near 42N28W.

A stationary front will gradually weaken and begin to drift
northward to the W of 70W tonight. Winds N of the front will
diminish through tonight. Low pres is expected to develop off
the NE Florida coast on Fri then drift NE and deepen over the
weekend off the coast of the Carolinas, then move NE and exit
the region late Sun through Mon. This low will drag a cold front
through areas W of 70W through the weekend. Gale force winds are
possible this weekend behind the front, mainly N of 28N. Elongated
and broad low pres may develop just to the E of, or over, the
Lesser Antilles this weekend into early next week.

$$
MMTorres