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Tropical Weather Discussion


AXNT20 KNHC 230001

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.



A strong cold front is crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico this
evening. Gale force winds to 35 kt are occurring north of 25N
east of the front with seas to 13 ft. Gale force winds to 40 kt
are occurring north of 23N west of the front with seas building to
19 ft. For more information, please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


The same cold front noted above will sweep eastward into the
southwest Atlantic with southwest winds increasing to 30-35 kt
north of 29N west of 77W this evening and seas building to 16 ft.
These conditions will spread east ahead of the front for the next
48 hours with winds increasing to 30 to 40 kt by Monday afternoon
north of 23.5N within 150 nm east of the front. Please refer to
the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes across the coast of Africa near 05N09W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ begins from that point and extends to 00N27W
to 03S35W. Isolated moderate convection is south of 06N between
26W and 44W.



A vigorous upper level trough over the southern United States
supports a strong cold front that as of 2100 UTC extended from
31N84W to 18N94W. A squall line is just ahead of the front north
of 27N. Gale force winds are occurring both ahead of and behind
the front mainly north of 23N over the Gulf basin this evening.
Please refer to the special features section for more details. The
cold front will continue to move rapidly southeastward and exit
the eastern Gulf Monday morning. Winds and seas will gradually
subside beginning Monday afternoon.


A 1016 mb surface high is centered to the north of Jamaica and
extends across most of the basin. The tail end of a surface
trough, formerly a stationary front, extends over the Virgin
Islands with isolated showers. The latest scatterometer data
indicates gentle to moderate trades across the basin east of 78W,
and south of 15N west of 78W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
north of 15N west of 78W, ahead of an approaching cold front over
the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will enter the northwestern
Caribbean late tonight and reach from eastern Cuba to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border by Monday evening. Strong northwest
winds will occur north of the front.


Dry air in subsidence prevails over island at this time.
These conditions will prevail through Monday morning. A cold front
approaching from the northwest will bring increasing southerly
winds Monday afternoon through Tuesday, with showers possible
Tuesday through Tuesday night as the front crosses the island.


A 1016 mb surface high prevails across the west Atlantic centered
near 25N65W. A strong cold front is approaching the southeastern
United States supporting clusters of thunderstorms over the Atlc
waters north of 29N west of 76W with strong to near gale southwesterly
winds. A stationary front extends from 31N43W to 24N50W, then
transitions to a surface trough to 18N64W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 24N between 37W and 45W. A 1018 mb area of
high pressure centered near 33N23W dominates the eastern Atlc.
Over the next 24 hours thunderstorms and winds will increase over
the Florida offshore waters ahead of the approaching cold front
with gale force winds developing this evening. Please see the
special features section for more details regarding this gale.

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