Tropical Weather Discussion

 

Expires:No;;604876
AXNT20 KNHC 230548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Oct 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0547 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 14.5N 74.7W at 23/0600
UTC or 240 nm SSE of Kingston Jamaica. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Melissa is moving toward the west near 2 kt. A
slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-
northwest is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a
westward turn by the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to be nearer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of
Haiti during the next couple of days. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between 70W and 75W. Peak
seas to near 20 ft are occurring near the center of Melissa. Some
slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, with
more substantial intensification expected by the weekend. Melissa
is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Swells
generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty
in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican
Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of
rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible through at least Saturday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
29W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 02.5N to 10N between 27W and 32W.

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
33W, south of 18N. This wave is nearly stationary. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 19N between 32W and
39W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 17N16W and
continues southwestward to 09N29W to 09N40.5W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N40.5W to 10.5N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N to 12N and east of 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front runs westward from near Cape Coral Florida to
28N85W, then continues as a stationary front to just south of
Corpus Christi, Texas. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed
mainly moderate NE to E winds north of the front, where seas are
2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, a weak ridging over the basin is supporting
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will stall
across southern Florida and the northern Gulf on Thu and then
dissipate by Fri. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
continue through Thu. Winds will increase over the eastern Gulf by
Fri as the pressure gradient tightens between the building high
pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Melissa in the central
Caribbean. Little change in conditions is expected early next
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for specific information
on Tropical Storm Melissa. The broad circulation of Melissa now
covers the entire basin except for NW portions. Scattered squalls
and a few thunderstorms are occurring on the periphery of this
broad wind field, from the Gulf of Honduras to south of Jamaica,
and across the eastern Caribbean. Seas to 8 ft and higher have
moved to the south coast of Haiti and the eastern end of Jamaica,
and extend southward to near 13N between 69W and 79W. Elsewhere,
an increasing pressure gradient between Melissa and a building
Bermuda high to the northeast is supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds over the eastern Caribbean as observed on recent
scatterometer data, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of
Cuba and the northwestern basin. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail over
the eastern Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas west of 79W.

For the forecast, Melissa will move to 14.7N 74.9W Thu morning,
15.0N 75.1W Thu evening, 15.3N 75.2W Fri morning, 15.7N 75.3W Fri
evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.0N 75.6W Sat morning,
and 16.1N 76.2W Sat evening. Melissa will change little in
intensity as it moves to the 16.0N 77.5W late Sun

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N76.5W southwestward to inland
central Florida. A surface trough has been analyzed to the
southeast of the front from 31N72W to 29N75W. Isolated showers are
depicted along the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data
showed gentle to moderate SW to NW winds occurring in this region
near these features. Farther east, another cold front enters our
area and extends from 31N37W to 28N50W. In addition, a surface
trough extends from 31N30W to 19N46W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring in between these two features
particularly along the trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds are
noted near these features N of 25N. A 1024 mb Bermuda high
extends a ridge southward to 19N. The increasing pressure gradient
between the high and Tropical Storm Melissa is supporting
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 25N
between 55W and the Bahamas. Otherwise, weak ridging dominates the
remainder of the waters farther east, supporting gentle to
moderate trade winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move southeastward and stall from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys
by Fri night. High pressure building in behind the front will
support strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of the boundary
Fri through Sun while it weakens. These winds will continue to
impact the western half of the area into early next week as a
tight pressure between the high pressure and Tropical Storm
Melissa in the central Caribbean Sea remains in place. This
pattern set up will support fresh E to SE winds over the waters
south of 22N and west of 70W along with rough seas by Sun near the
northern entrance to the Windward Passage.

$$
KRV

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