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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 151737
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2021

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM OCT 15/18 UTC: AT UPPER LEVELS...A
DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH IS STREAMING ACROSS THE WESTERN TO THE
CENTRAL USA...WITH AXIS PRESSING AGAINST A WANING CELL OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AT 250 HPA THE RIDGE SPANS BETWEEN
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST
USA...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH EAST OF
VERACRUZ. THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE IS TO FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH
PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EASTERN USA...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT IS TO
NEARLY COLLAPSE AS A SHORT WAVE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT THAT SURGES
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO THE RIO BRAVO LATER THIS EVENING. ON
SATURDAY THE FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS/NORTHERN VERACRUZ TO CHIHUAHUA. LATER ON
SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...WITH BOUNDARY TRAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO
NORTHEAST MEXICO. AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...IT WILL INDUCE A TEHUANTEPECER LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30-40KT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE/TOPOGRAPHICAL LIFTING
BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND CAMPECHE/TABASCO. EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE ON
SATURDAY EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ACROSS VERACRUZ ACTIVITY SURGES
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FRONTAL/PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERLY JET...HEAVY CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ-TABASCO/NORTHERN CHIAPAS. IN
THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. ON SUNDAY EXPECTING RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ACROSS CAMPECHE TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA IT
WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHILE OVER BELIZE AND
QUINTANA ROO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY...TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY MORNING.

ALSO AT 250 HPA...A TUTT LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA. ON
SATURDAY THE TROUGH WILL START TO PULL AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
FLATTEN AND A JET MAXIMA ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OF CUBA INTO THE TURKS/SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS. OVER CUBA THIS WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
CONVECTION TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. INITIALLY THIS IS TO CLUSTER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND...BUT THROUGH SUNDAY THIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SIDE AS THE
JET MAXIMA ROUNDS THE TROUGH. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
JAMAICA AND HAITIAN PENINSULA...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ALSO...THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA DURING THE
DAY TODAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. BUT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS ON SATURDAY IT WILL DECREASE TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD CELL OF
THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS POLAR TROUGH EXITING THE
EASTERN USA AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IT WILL SUSTAIN AN ELEVATED INVERSION ACROSS
HISPANIOLA-PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WITH
THE GDI FORECAST SUGGESTING THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION IS TO WANE
DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN WAX EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. AT LOW LEVELS...AN OPEN TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS IS TO WEAKEN WHILE MEANDERING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. INITIALLY THIS WILL FAVOR A LOW/MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...BUT AS THE
TROUGH PULLS ON SATURDAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING PATTERN THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY IN MOSTLY
SHALLOWER CONVECTION. OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLES THIS WILL
FAVOR LIGHT/LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYPE INIT SOF 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00
TW 45W 11N 48W 51W 54W 57W 60W 63W 66W
TW 65W 16N 68W 70W 73W 76W 78W 80W 83W
TW 76W 15N 78W 80W 82W 84W DISSIPATES
TW 79W 16N DISSIPATES

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W AND SOUTH OF 11N IS FORECAST TO ENTER
FRENCH GUIANA EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH THE DAY IT
IS TO PROPAGATE ACROSS SURINAME TO GUYANA WHERE IT WILL SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OVER NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD THIS INCREASES TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON
SUNDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W AND SOUTH OF 16N...IN INTERACTION WITH
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA TO EASTERN COLOMBIA...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND AMXIMA OF 15-25MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. ON SATURDAY EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON SUNDAY THIS WEAKENS TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W AND SOUTH OF 15N IS TO INTERACT WITH THE
ITCZ AND LONG FETCH WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO
FAVOR HEAVY CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA...WITH ACCUMULATION
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON SATURDAY THIS INCREASES
TO MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ACROSS PANAMA TO COSTA RICA ACTIVITY IS TO
ALSO INTENSIFY...INCREASING FROM 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
TODAY TO MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON SATURDAY. BUT AS IT ENTERS NICARAGUA
ON SUNDAY IT WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W AND SOUTH OF 16N BECOMES ILL DEFINED
EARLY IN THE CYCLE.

DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$