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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 271247
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
847 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2021

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL
27/12UTC: RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED PERTURBATION IN
THE LOW/MID LEVELS IS THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN DURING THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD...WITH MODELS AGREEING ON A SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TUTT CROSSES THE ISLAND CHAIN TO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH THE
DAY IT IS TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TUTT IS
BROAD WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL PRESENCE...IN THIS CYCLE THE
MODELS APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE DOVISH THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH
LOW LEVEL FORCING APPEARING MARGINAL AT BEST. OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLES INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO THE MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH BRISK EASTERLY TRADES TO
LIKELY FAVOR A ROUND OF STREAMERS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO THE FOCUS SHIFTS FROM SAN JUAN METRO IN THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TO WESTERN PORTIONS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MOCA-AGUADA
AND RINCON.

AS THE TUTT INDUCED MOVES AWAY ON THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER/LONG
FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES RETURNING LATER IN THE EVENING/EARLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THIS WILL DRAW ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS GOING TO
REACH...WITH THE GFS PLUME BOTTOMING OUT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE THE MORE BULLISH ECMWF SHOWS THE DEEPER PLUME REACHING
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLES. THIS IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW A MID LEVEL RIDGE ROLLING FROM THE EAST EVOLVES
AS IT BRANCHES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A PATTERN THAT THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SEASON. CONSIDERING
THAT WE ARE MOVING TO THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE MJO...AS PER CFS
GUIDANCE...A STRONGER RIDGE AND A DRYER SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$