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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 201110
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
710 AM EDT TUE APR 20 2021

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM APRIL
20/12UTC: MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHERE IT
FAVORS A LOW BASE TRADE WINDS INVERSION. UNDER PRESSURE FROM POLAR
TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN USA/ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RELEASES ITS FOOTHOLD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE GRADUAL EROSION OF THE TRADE WINDS
INVERSION AS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AS THE CAP WEAKENS...DEEPER
MOISTURE IS TO GRADUALLY POOL OVER PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA-THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH PWAT CONTENT FORECAST TO PEAK AT 1.50-1.75
INCHES ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS FOLLOW A SIMILAR
UPPER LEVEL EVOLUTION...THE GFS FOLLOWS A FASTER TRANSITION THAN
THE EUROPEAN MODEL...BRINGING PATCHY CLOUD CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SEEM MORE
LIKELY IF WE HAD A DEEP TUTT WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
REFLECTION TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS/CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BUT WITH
THE TUTT CONFINING TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE...THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE.

AT LOW LEVELS...UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH...BRISK
EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR THE GENERATION OF LATE AFTERNOON STREAMERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...TO
RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT TO TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS THE POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIGHTER EASTERLY TRADES ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WITH THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMING ILL DEFINED THEN EXPECTING THE DIURNAL HEAT
CYCLE/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVERGENCE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ACTIVE. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE LATER
PERIODS...WHILE ALSO FAVORING A HIGHER INCIDENCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$