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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 271231
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
730 AM EST THU JAN 27 2022

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
27/12UTC: THE MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A ROBUST RIDGE CENTERING
OVER JAMAICA AND EXTENDING EAST INTO THE ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS SUSTAINING A STRONG TRADE WIND CAP OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...EVIDENCED BY THE HORIZONTAL EXTENSION OF STRATIFORM
FEATURES IN PASSING TRADE WIND CONVECTION. A TROUGH IN THE TRADES
IS CROSSING EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE WESTERN VI ON THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO MORNING
CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST CORDILLERA.

THE MID-LEVEL FORECAST CONTINUES INDICATING THAT...UNDER THE
PRESSURE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE USA...THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES ELONGATED...TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO PUERTO RICO/VI ON SATURDAY...AND JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SUNDAY. AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE TRADE WIND CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS
WELL. HOWEVER...AS VERTICAL MIXING IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION
INCREASES...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PROCESSES WILL BECOME
DOMINANT...TO FAVOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SOME VARIABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO WEAK
PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING IN THE TRADES. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MOIST PLUME IS FORECAST TO CROSS PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...TO
SUSTAIN A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORDILLERA...WHERE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 0.3-0.4
INCHES. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DOMINANT EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE WIND DIRECTIONS...BUT
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE TRADES
ARE STILL FORECAST TO VEER TO EAST-SOUTH EASTERLIES BY
SATURDAY...TO FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN NORTH-CENTRAL PUERTO
RICO WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.3 INCHES. ON SUNDAY...MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A COL DEVELOPING OVER/WEST OF THE ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT STALLING IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES ON THE WIND FIELD AND ASSOCIATED GENESIS OF
PRECIPITATING CONVECTION. BUT THE CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS WEAK
TRADES AND ENHANCED DIURNAL BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS...TO FAVOR
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE CENTRAL
CORDILLERA...TRANSITIONING TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CORDILLERA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED DR AIR
ENTRAINMENT PROCESSES...EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER 0.3 INCHES IN THE
RAINIEST LOCATIONS.

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$