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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 121738
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2020

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 12/16UTC: A TUTT LOW CENTERS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS EXTENDING AN AXIS TO THE WEST INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TUTT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE...TO SLOWLY MEANDER WESTWARD. BY FRIDAY IT WILL CENTER OFF
THE COAST OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EXTEND AN AXIS INTO NORTHERN
JALISCO/NAYARIT. THIS WILL VENTILATE CONVECTION IN AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TUTT AXIS...WHILE AREAS RO THE NORTH WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE
UNITED STATES. THUS...STRONGEST CONEVCTION IN MEXICO WILL EXTEND
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO JALISCO/NAYARIT AND SOUTHERN
SINALOA THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. AT LOW-LEVELS...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE TRANSVERSING CENTRAL MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM
WESTERN OAXACA/GUERRERO INTO SOUTHERN SINALOA ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS CLUSTERING FROM
COLIMA/JALISCO INTO NORTHERN SINALOA. BY FRIDAY...EXPECTING A
DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN SINALOA. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION IS A TUTT-INDUCED PERTURBATION. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A
PEAK IN ACTIVITY IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY TO FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO CLUSTER IN TABASCO/NORTHERN CHIAPAS.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...ANOTHER TUTT CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AND SOUTHEAST CUBA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE CELL CENTERS OVER PUERTO
RICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LOSE ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE WHILE MOVING LITTLE...WHILE THE TUTT MEANDERS
NORTHWESTWARD TO CENTER OVER ANDROS ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ABOVE THA BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITED OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEADING TO VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION GIVEN THAT
VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE TUTT. OF RELEVANCE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING RAPIDLY
FROM PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY...TO APPROACH THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MORE
IMPORTANT FOCUS OF CONVECTION. YET...AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR IS
STILL LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECTING
05-10MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15MM FROM WESTERN HAITI INTO
SOUTHEAST CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST CUBA. ON FRIDAY...ENHANCEMENT WILL LIMIT
TO CENTRAL AMERICA (SEE BELOW). HOWEVER...THE TUTT WILL
DESTABILIZE THE TROPOSPHERE OF THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN
CUBA SUFFICIENTLY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
WILL FAVOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE FROM THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
ACCELERATED TRADES AND ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY FRIDAY...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA. IN EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN EL
SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AS AN ACTIVE ITCZ INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE. ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE...AS
THE MJO PULSE CROSSES THE AMERICAS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS...WILL FURTHER STIMULATE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN
COSTA RICA TO REACH 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE IN
PANAMA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN
PANAMA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA...WHILE MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA INTO EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY...TO FAVOR
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. ON FRIDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY IN WESTERN PANAMA...MOST OF COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA...WHERE EXPECTING 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN BECOMES GRADUALLY
MORE FAVORABLE...AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND
IN VENEZUELA...THIS WILL RESULT IN 15-20MM/DAY AND SCATTERED
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM BY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHILE IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA EXPECTING 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM WITH THE
RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ON FRIDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND
SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
TYPE 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00 SOF
TI 52W 55W 58W 62W 66W 68W 70W 73W 29N
TW 64W 69W 74W 79W 78W 82W 85W 88W 24N
TI 82W 85W 88W 90W 92W 94W 96W 98W 26N
TW 100W 103W 105W 108W 110W 112W 114W 116W 25N

A TUTT-INDUCED PERTURBATION IS INITIALIZED AT 52W AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 29N...AND NORTH OF 18N. THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY TO SUSTAIN ONLY A MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION GIVEN THAT ENHANCEMENT WILL CLUSTER GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE CARIBBEAN ISLAND CHAIN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 64W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 24N. THE
WAVE IS PROPAFATING RAPIDLY. ON WEDNESDAY...AS IT CROSSES THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO...IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA
IT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON THURSDAY...THE
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE PANAMANIAN LOW TO TRIGGER STRONG
CONVECTION AND A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
EXPECTING 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA/EASTERN
PANAMA. IN THE REST OF PANAMA...MOST OF COSTA RICA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION IN WESTERN
PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ENHANCED PANAMABIAN LOW CIRCULATION. THIS WILL FAVOR 25-50MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM WITH THE RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. IN
NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE IN WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR
IT FACORS 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN SOUTHERN BELIZE
AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH EHNANCED TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A PEAK IN CONVECTION IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY WHEN EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN
TABASCO AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 100W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
25N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO STIMULATE CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. ON THURSDAY...IT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION FROM
JALISCO/COLIMA NORTH INTO NORTHERN SINALOA TO PRODUCE SIMILAR
AMOUNTS. BY FRIDAY...THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE MOSTLY
LIMITED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

GALVEZ/DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$