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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 221837
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM JUN 22/12 UTC: THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS OF
INTEREST IN THE BASIN TO MONITOR THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. ONE
IS A TUTT LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A TUTT LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

IN MEXICO...EARLY IN THE CYCLE...A REGION OF ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS MEANDERING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS WILL FAVOR MODERATE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL TO PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN SINALOA/DURANGO/NAYARIT INTO JALISCO/ZACATECAS ON
FRIDAY. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE IN DURANGO AND SINALOA AFTER...AS
MOIST PLUME MEANDERS WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.

ALSO IN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A TUTT RETROGRESSING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY TO CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO BY MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHIFT IN HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE CYCLE. THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL CLUSTER IN OAXACA/CHIAPAS
INTO CAMPECHE...GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS/EL
SALVADOR...WHERE EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR INTO WESTERN GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS/TABASCO.
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM ON BOTH DAYS AS WELL. IN NICARAGUA/EASTERN
HONDURAS...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY DECREASING AFTER. THE DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BY SUNDAY-MONDAY...WHEN EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST IN CENTRAL MEXICO TO REACH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN WESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR INTO
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NICARAGUA EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

AS A LARGE TUTT EVOLVES AND MEANDERS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA INTO THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
CYCLE...EXPECTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE
GREATER ANTILLES. FURTHERMORE...AN EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO SUSTAIN MODERATE PRECIPITATION. A TRADE WIND SURGE
TRAILS BEHIND THE WAVE. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A GRADUAL DRYING
STARTING ON THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY AND CROSSING PUERTO
RICO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION INTO SCATTERED
LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REGIONS OF STREAMERS. IN THE MEAN
TIME...INTERACTION BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE TUTT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN ANTILLES INTO PUERTO
RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WHERE EXPECTING
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO ON
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. THIS INCLUDES THE
RISK OF MCS FORMATION IN SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA ON SUNDAY
MORNING. BY SUNDAY-MONDAY...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY IN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...UNDER CONTINUED
ENHANCEMENT BY THE UPPER TROUGH.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY GRADUALLY AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES...UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE APPROACHING TUTT. THIS WILL LEAD TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM BY SUNDAY-MONDAY.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE MOSTLY ALONG
THE ITCZ/NET WHICH IS MEANDERING ACROSS THE GUIANAS INTO VENEZUELA
AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA. EAST ACROSS THE GUIANAS...DAILY
ITCZ/TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL SUSTAIN ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS. AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY-MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DISORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM/DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY-MONDAY...EXPECTING
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM CLUSTERING IN NORTHERN
GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ALSO IN
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NET WILL
CONTINUE ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA.
INITIALLY...THIS WILL LEAD TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN CENTRAL SOUTH
AMERICA STRENGTHENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENHANCED VENTILATION
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS TO SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.

IN COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVITY WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE ITCZ/NET. ALSO...AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE IN THE
CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXTREME NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND AN INCREASE IN
EASTERN COSTA RICA AND THE EJE CAFETERO/NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-30MM IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND EXTREME NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/LAKE MARACAIBO REGION. THIS WILL DECREASE ON
SATURDAY-SUNDAY IN COLOMBIA...WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. BY
SUNDAY-MONDAY...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA INTO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF
36W 41W 46W 51W 56W 60W 65W 70W TW 12N
48W 53W 58W 63W 68W 73W 78W 83W TW 11N
68W 72W 76W 79W 83W 86W 90W 93W EW 19N
81W 83W 86W 89W 92W DISSIPATES EW 17N

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W AND SOUTH OF 11N IS ILL-DEFINED AS IT
PROPAGATES ALONG THE ATLANTIC ITCZ. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER
FRENCH GUIANA LATE ON SATURDAY...TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. AS IT APPROACHES
GUYANA/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ON SUNDAY...IT WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N REACHES FRENCH
GUIANA LATER ON FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SURINAME TO GUYANA. OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXPECTING
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVE IS
EXPECTED OVER VENEZUELA ON SATURDAY ALONG THE NET WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WILL LEAD
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH A TUTT TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN ANTILLES
AND PUERTO RICO/EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM AND THE RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY IT WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM OVER HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA...WITH CONTINUED RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ALSO ON
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN COSTA RICA. BY
SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS WILL LEAD TO 05-10MM/DAY AND 15-25MM IN
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN COSTA RICA.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 81W WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
IN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS...AND 20-30MM IN PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. IT WILL THEN LOSE DEFINITION AS IT EXITS INTO THE PACIFIC.

HUDSON...MS (JAMAICA)
WARD-FORBES...BDM (THE BAHAMAS)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$