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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 141952
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2020

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 14/12 UTC: WEST IN THE DOMAIN...A
SURFACE FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION. AS THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
ON FRIDAY...THE ASSOCIATED POLAR HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THE
SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS. BY FRIDAY
EVENING THE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL GULF...AND
AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. BY SATURDAY
EVENING BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHILE IT STARTS WEAKENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BY SUNDAY EVENING IT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE
WEAKENING. A TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET IS PRESENT AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE CONVERGENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN SLOPES IN CHIAPAS AND TABASCO WILL SUSTAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN INLAND
LOCATIONS OF TABASCO AND CHIAPAS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. VERY
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS DECREASES AFTER TO
SUSTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM BY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 10MM IN THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY...AND FRONTAL CONVECTION ON SUNDAY
WILL SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...EXPECTING 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.

A FEATURE OF IMPORTANCE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE IS A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS RETROGRESSED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH HAS A STRONG REFLECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS...AND AS SUCH...WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE IN CONVECTION
FROM COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA INTO THE ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER IN THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...TO
THEN START PULLING EASTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
ENHANCING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE WIND CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IN THE SAN JUAN RADAR. THIS WILL SUSTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECTING A
DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE
ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...MODELS
AND THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO SOUNDING SHOW A ROBUST ELEVATED
INVERSION THAT PLACES THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AT 400 HPA. THIS WILL
SUSTAIN PLENTY CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO
MAXIMA OF 15MM ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
DECREASE AFTER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO STIMULATE CONVECTION IN COLOMBIA BY
SUSTAINING ENHANCED VENTILATION IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND WEAK
SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND GDI IS EVIDENT IN THE MODELS.
THIS WILL SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN CENTRAL/ANDEAN COLOMBIA ON
FRIDAY...DECREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY ON
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF
NONE

CLARKE...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
TYNES...BMS (THE BAHAMAS)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$