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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 281055
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
654 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL 28/06
UTC: A MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS BLOCKING A TUTT TO
THE EAST...WITH AXIS SOUTH ALONG 58W/60W TO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THE TUTT ALOFT ANCHORS ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 27N 58W.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A POLAR TROUGH TO THE NORTH...THE TUTT LOW
IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH...MEANWHILE...WILL THEN RETROGRESS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY DURING THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS TO THEN PERSIST
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND VENEZUELA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT
LOW/MID LEVELS...THE TUTT ALOFT SUSTAINS AN INDUCED TROUGH IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES...WITH AXIS NORTH ALONG 65W/66W EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLES...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH
DWINDLING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS IS TO ONLY TRIGGER LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL LIMIT TO SAN JUAN METRO
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF LESS THAN AN INCH...WHILE TO THE NORTHWEST MAXIMA WILL
PEAK AT A COUPLE INCHES IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE TUTT RETROGRESSES TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
REACH PEAK IN INTENSITY ON SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS TO BUILD AHEAD (TO
THE WEST) OF A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION REACHING THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ENVELOP
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IN A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW...MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST INTENSE CLUSTERING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR IS SHOWING DAILY MAXIMA OF A COUPLE INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. ON ITS WAKE...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT WHILE FAVORING BRISK
EASTERLY TRADES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS CAP THAT IS TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE TO
PESTER THE USVI-EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THEN CLUSTER ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TRADE WINDS CAP RELAXES ITS FOOTHOLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A BROAD/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO A FAIRLY STRONG
PATTERN OF VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES IN ASSOCIATION TO AN UPPER
ATMOSPHERE KELVIN WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS
SUGGESTED BY LONG RANGE CLIMATIC MODEL GUIDANCE. AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE THIS WAVE COULD EASILY BECOME A HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER AS IT ENTERS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

GAJADHAR...SLMS (SAINT LUCIA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$