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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 011924
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EST WED MAR 01 2017

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM MARCH 01/12 UTC: POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH
AMERICA MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN USA LATER THIS
EVENING/EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY. AS IT EXITS THE EASTERN USA IT
IS TO THEN LIFT OVER A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A
SECONDARY VORTEX IS TO FOLLOW...WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH STREAMING
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA ON FRIDAY EVENING. AS IT EXITS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THE LATTER WILL THEN SUSTAIN THE SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES LATER DURING THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ALOFT
SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TO NORTHERN
COAHUILA/TAMAULIPAS IN NORTHEAST MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ON
THURSDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA-THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TAMAULIPAS IN NORTHEAST MEXICO.
LATER IN THE DAY THE FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS/NORTHERN VERACRUZ. AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
GULF...A BUILDING POLAR RIDGE OVER THE USA WILL SUSTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT ACROSS
THE GULF STATES OF MEXICO. ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS IS TO
TRIGGER A TEHUANTEPECER JET OF 40-45KT EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING...TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL DISPLACE THE FRONT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA LATER ON FRIDAY...WHILE TRAILING END MEANDERS
OVER THE GULF TO TAMAULIPAS. ON SATURDAY THE FRONT MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS-WHILE MEANDERING ACROSS CUBA TO NORTHEAST
MEXICO/SOUTH TEXAS. OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO THE FRONT AND FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES WILL FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW...CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO IS TO
INTENSIFY...TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ON SATURDAY MAXIMA INCREASES TO 40-80MM WHILE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. OTHER CONVECTION TO THE WEST IS TO BUILD
ACROSS COLIMA/NAYARIT TO SOUTHERN COAHUILA ON FRIDAY TO TRIGGER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THE FRONT WILL THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE OVER WESTERN CUBA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. THE TEHUANTEPECER JET WILL ENHANCE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. MOST ACTIVE
ACROSS TABASCO CHIAPAS ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WHERE UNDER INFLUENCE
OF ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ACROSS VERACRUZ IT
IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. ON FRIDAY IT DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM.

THE BUILDING POLAR RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST IS TO THEN FAVOR A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS-CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLES ON SATURDAY MORNING.
EARLY ON SUNDAY IT IS TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE TRAILING TO NICARAGUA. OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS-TURKS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CUBA THIS IS TO FAVOR LIGHT
CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.
ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES TO THE SOUTH...WITH AXIS
ANCHORING AT 500 HPA ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL/WESTERN CUBA. THE RIDGE SPANS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STATES
OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN/GREATER ANTILLES. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POLAR TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN USA ON THURSDAY THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF
25N...WHILE THE CLOSED HIGH RELOCATES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. FURTHER EROSION OF THIS AXIS IS EXPECTED LATER
DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN A FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE BASIN THAT IS TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...THE 850 HPA HIGH MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE CYCLE WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE YIELDS TO ADVANCING POLAR FRONT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THIS IS TO FAVOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
BASIN...WITH 850 HPA WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN/ISLAND
CHAIN RANGING BETWEEN 25-35KT... WHILE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN/LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA THE WINDS ARE TO PEAK AT 30-40KT.
THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN FAVOR THE GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN-VIRGIN ISLES. THIS WILL FAVOR
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS...THAT FOR THE MOST PART ARE TO RESULT IN
MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF
ECHO TRAINING THERE IS RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM SOME OF THESE ISLANDS. ON THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA... COSTA RICA AND BELIZE THE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. THIS INCREASES WITH TIME UNDER INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY WAVES
(SEE BELOW).

FURTHERMORE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS IT HOLDS OVER THE
BASIN...IT IS TO STEER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF THE ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WHERE IT IS TO FEED INTO A MEANDERING TUTT EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ALLOW THE TUTT PATTERN TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES TO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA. THIS WILL THEN
FAVOR THE GRADUAL EROSION OF TRADE WINDS CAP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS
TRINIDAD/TOBAGO-NORTHEAST VENEZUELA EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING...
EXPANDING WEST ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO THE ABC ISLES ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. PWAT CONTENT IN THIS AREA WILL INCREASE TO
40-50MM...UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. OVER
TRINIDAD-TOBAGO-ISLA DE MARGARITA/ORINOCO DELTA IN VENEZUELA
INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OVER THE ABC ISLES INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. THROUGH FRIDAY THE
MAXIMA GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA-GUIANAS ARE
MORE FAVORABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY SO
ACROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTH AMERICA. OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORTS AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAUCA
VALLEY TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAXIMA INCREASES TO
30-60MM/DAY. ON THE EJE CAFETERO/ANDEAN REGION OF NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. OVER AMAZONIA IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTERLY
WAVES. ACROSS THE GUIANAS...ITCZ/NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH RELATED
CONVERGENCE WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EASTERLY WAVES (SEE BELOW).

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
21W 23W 26W 29W 32W 35W 37W 40W TW
59W 61W 64W 67W 70W 73W 76W 78W EW
70W 73W 76W 79W 81W 83W 86W 88W
EW
78W 81W 84W 87W 90W 93W DISSIPATES EW

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ALONG 21W. THIS IS TO NEAR NORTH COAST OF BRASIL LATER ON
SATURDAY.

A MOIST TONGUE FOLLOWS THE EASTERLY WAVE INITIALIZED ALONG 59W.
THIS WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN GUYANA-ORINOCO DELTA IN VENEZUELA EARLY
ON THURSDAY MORNING TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON THURSDAY IT IS TO EXPAND ACROSS
TRINIDAD/TOBAGO-ISLA DE MARGARITO TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE OVER SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA/AMAZONIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. LATER ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY IT WILL MOVE OVER THE
ABC ISLES/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON FRIDAY IT IS TO THEN ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 70W IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/SANTANDERES COLOMBIA EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM...WHILE OVER JAMAICA IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA IT IS TO
THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE PANAMANIAN LOW/INDUCES A LONG FETCH
WESTERLY FLOW...WHILE OVER NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER WESTERN
PANAMA-COSTA RICA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON FRIDAY...WHILE OVER EASTERN
NICARAGUA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 78W MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TO THEN GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT STREAMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MEANWHILE...OVER COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

JIMENEZ...IMN (COSTA RICA)
SUBRATH-ALI...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
GALVEZ/DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$