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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 231906
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM FEB 23/12 UTC: WEST OVER THE
DOMAIN...POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
USA/NORTHWEST STATES OF MEXICO...WITH AXIS TO MEANDER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL USA LATER ON SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT LOW
LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST USA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...THEN MERGES WITH AN OLD
BOUNDARY TRAILING ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS TO THEN
MEANDER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
USA...THE POLAR TROUGH IS TO INDUCE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS TO
EXTEND NORTH FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES OF MEXICO TO SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
TAMAULIPAS-COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON IN NORTHEAST MEXICO. IN THIS AREA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THIS IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY.

BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST...WITH MID
LEVEL AXIS ENVELOPING THE EASTERN USA-WESTERN ATLANTIC-NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 30N 77W.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS TO REMAIN STRONG AND TRUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY...UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH OVER THE USA...THE RIDGE WILL START TO ERODE AND ON TUESDAY
THE RIDGE IS TO FLATTEN. AT LOW LEVELS...THIS REFLECTS AS A BROAD
RIDGE ENVELOPING AREA BETWEEN 100W-50W AND TO THE NORTH OF
10N...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH JUST WEST OF BERMUDA. OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THIS FAVORS A COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN
AND A FRESH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH 850 HPA WINDS OF
25-30KT...WHILE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN/OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA IT FAVORS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS. UNDER PRESSURE FROM
THE POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS RIDGE IS TO ALSO WEAKEN.
AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WANE DURING THE
WEEKEND.

A TUTT OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEPARATES THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FROM A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE LIES FROM EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...THE RIDGE IS TO BUILD ACROSS VENEZUELA-ISLAND CHAIN TO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
THEN DISPLACE THE TUTT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW RELOCATING TO THE TURKS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS IS TO THEN EXTEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PANAMA-COSTA RICA. ALSO AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA BOUNDS THE EASTERN-SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
TROUGH. THE JET EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA/ABC ISLES AND
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS THE JET IS TO ALSO RELOCATE...SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN-EASTERN HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT
RELOCATES...THE JET IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR AN UPPER DIVERGENT
PATTERN THAT IS TO VENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LATER DURING THE WEEKEND THIS IS TO THEN VENT CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN HISPANIOLA-PUERTO RICO-THE VIRGIN ISLES AS WELL AS OVER
THE ABC ISLES. ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA INITIALLY EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...WHILE ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON SATURDAY-MONDAY IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. OVER PUERTO
RICO INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM...INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ONWARD. OVER THE FRENCH-WINDWARD ISLES
TO TRINIDAD/TOBAGO THE JET ALOFT IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BUT AS THE JET LIFTS
THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON
SATURDAY...WITH MOST ACTIVE OVER TRINIDAD AND THE GRENADINES.

UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE BASIN AND
MEANDERING TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...A PLUME OF MOISTURE
IS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA.
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS THIS IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN SCATTERED CONVECTION. ON
SATURDAY-MONDAY MORNING THIS IS TO THEN PEAK AT 15MM/DAY. MOISTURE
IS TO ALSO CONVERGE ACROSS NORTHEAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA...WHERE WE
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
SATURDAY-SUNDAY THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA-NORTHEAST
COSTA RICA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY THIS INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. IN LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA-SOUTHERN MEXICO...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS TO CLUSTER ACROSS
OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA-CHIAPAS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON THE ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA
INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. THROUGH SUNDAY THIS DECREASES TO 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 10MM. BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO VENT DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE GUIANAS. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED OVER FRENCH
GUIANA ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY...TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OVER NORTHERN
SURINAME/GUYANA...TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ON SUNDAY-TUESDAY IS TO
THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF
NONE

GORDON...NMS (BELIZE)
NIXON...BDM (THE BAHAMAS)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$