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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 241953
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR MAY 24/12UTC: A PERSISTING MID-UPPER RIDGE
IN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SETTING FOOTHOLD OVER THE
COUNTRY. MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THIS WILL SUSTAIN AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
ITS SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TO EXTEND AN AXIS
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAIT INTO THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA
BY SUNDAY EVENING. UNDER THIS POSITION...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE FAVORING A LOWERING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BUT ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
WILL...IN TERM...CONTINUE REINFORCING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
CIRCULATION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
NICARAGUA...NORTHWEST COSTA RICA...EL SALVADOR/EXTREME SOUTHERN
HONDURAS...INTO THE ISLANDS EAST OF NICARAGUA. EXPECTING
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. NOTE THAT VERY ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS WITH RECURRENT THUNDERSTORMS. IN
CENTRAL HONDURAS WEST INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS
EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN CENTRAL BELIZE
EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE GULF OF
FONSECA MEANDERING SOUTHWARD TO CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF
GUANACASTE/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS IN EL SALVADOR/WESTERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS TO SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHWEST COSTA RICA
INTO MOST OF NICARAGUA AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WHERE EXPECTING
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. AS THE ITCZ CONVERGENCE
INCREASES IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...EXPECTING AN
INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY SUNDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO THE NORTHWEST...THE GYRE WILL START EXPANDING
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO MOST OF
EASTERN HONDURAS. IN THIS AREA...AND IN ALL OF
NICARAGUA...NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WHERE
EXPECTING 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
APPROACHES...EXPECTING 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN
BELIZE/GUATEMALA/WESTERN EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS
EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AT UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS
BEING REINFORCED BY THE LATENT HEAT RELEASED FROM THE SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
THUS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE CYCLE. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WEST INTO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND
NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST CUBA/CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT LOW-LEVELS...THE
LOWERING OF THE PRESSURES IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL ENHANCE
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CARIBBEAN TRADES. THIS WILL TRANSPORT
LARGE VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTHWESTWARD. BY SUNDAY
EVENING...THE 50MM REGION WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS
HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...CENTRAL CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS EVOLUTION WILL SUSTAIN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE EDGE OF THE MOIST SURGE.
HOWEVER...EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND GENERALLY DUE TO PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. ON FRIDAY...LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REACH
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA
EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN SOUTHEAST
CUBA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BY SATURDAY-EARLY SUNDAY
EXPECTING A PEAK IN HISPANIOLA WHERE MAXIMA WILL INCREASE TO
30-60MM/DAY. IN JAMAICA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ONCE AGAIN. IN
PUERTO RICO EXPECTING A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND IN
SOUTHEAST CUBA 15-20MM. BY SUNDAY-MONDAY...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN JAMAICA...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CUBA AND IN
HISPANIOLA. IN PUERTO RICO EXPECTING ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ORGANIZING
WITH THE NET AND EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES. LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA.
HOWEVER...MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ENHANCED
WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...FAVORED BY THE
CROSSING OF TROPICAL WAVES. BY FRIDAY...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA. IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ANDEAN COLOMBIA EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. CONVECTION IN NORTHERN GUYANA/NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA WILL SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ELSEWHERE IN VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. BY
SATURDAY-SUNDAY EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO THE BAJO MAGDALENA/SANTANDERES
WHERE EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. AS A EASTERLY
WAVE PRESSES IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH EASTERLY WIND SURGE FROM
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN MOST OF
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND EASTER COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA
EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN GUYANA/NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. BY
SUNDAY-MONDAY EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS FROM SANTANDERES/NORTHERN
COLOMBIA WEST INTO EASTERN PANAMA AND THE CHOCO/ANTIOQUIA WHERE
EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. TO THE EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLOMBIA/CENTRAL/WESTERN VENEZUELA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. EAST OF THIS AREA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
15-20MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF
13W 16W 18W 21W 23W 25W 28W 30W TW 14N
42W 45W 48W 51W 54W 57W 60W 62W TW 07N
59W 62W 65W 68W 71W 73W 74W 76W EW 13N
69W 71W 74W 76W 78W 80W DISS EW 12N
80W DISS TW

A ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING AFRICA AND HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED
AT 13W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. MODELS AGREE ON THIS WAVE
DEVELOPING A LARGE AMPLITUDE AND NORTH-SOUTH EXTENSION AS IT
CROSSES THE ATLANTIC. IT WILL...HOWEVER...NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE CYCLE...AS IT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 07N.
THIS WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME ON
SATURDAY...AND PROPAGATE ACROSS GUIANA/EXTREME EASTERN VENEZUELA
ON SUNDAY...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
MONDAY.

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING AT 59W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N.
STRONGEST CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS OCCURRING IN INTERACTION
WITH THE ITCZ/NET...BUT IT ALSO EXTENDS AN AXIS OF CONVECTION
SOUTH INTO 02-05S IN BRASIL. THE WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
WESTERN GUIANA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA ON FRIDAY...CENTRAL/WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLOMBIA ON SATURDAY...AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA ON SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY...ON FRIDAY EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/GUIANAS. BY SATURDAY EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA/EASTERN COLOMBIA. ON SUNDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN MOST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...WESTERN COLOMBIA INTO EASTERN PANAMA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 69W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. THE
WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHEAST COLOMBIA
ON FRIDAY...NORTHWEST COLOMBIA ON SATURDAY...TO THEN LOOSE
DEFINITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED INTO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
CIRCULATION. ON FRIDAY...ENHANCEMENT WILL CLUSTER IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COLOMBIA. ON SATURDAY IT WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN PANAMA
TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN EASTERN PANAMA AND 25-50MM/DAY IN
WESTERN PANAMA. BEFORE IT DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA WESTERN PANAMA.

A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 80W IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE CIRCULATION AND WILL NO LONGER EXHIBIT A
WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE AFTER THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

CHINCHILLA...IMN (COSTA RICA)
JIMENEZ...FAC (COLOMBIA)
PAREDES...SENAMHI (PERU)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$