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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 141934
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EST THU NOV 14 2019

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM NOVEMBER 14/12UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL CELL
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. AT 500 HPA THIS IS TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH
THAT IS TO MEANDER BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA-HAITI-JAMAICA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MEANWHILE FAVORING A TRADE WINDS INVERSION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. AS THE RIDGE
HOLDS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TO LIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST USA ON FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY THE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST USA TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. UNDER PRESSURE...THE RIDGE IS TO FLATTEN... RELEASING
ITS FOOTHOLD OVER THE BAHAMAS-CUBA. IT...HOWEVER... REMAINS FAIRLY
STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT LOW LEVELS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TO INTERACT WITH MEANDERING
FRONT OVER FLORIDA/THE GULF OF MEXICO. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS
WILL SUSTAIN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH LOW TO
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST USA TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL SUSTAIN A
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT DRIVES THE FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA-THE YUCATAN TO THE CAMPECHE
SOUND ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE FRONT IS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS-CUBA-THE CAYMAN ISLES TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN HONDURAS. AS THE NORTHERLIES EXPAND ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE. THIS IS TO EXTEND ACROSS CUBA-THE CAYMAN
ISLES TO NORTHEAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA ON FRIDAY...TO COSTA
RICA/WESTERN PANAMA ON SATURDAY. THE SHEAR LINE BECOMES ILL
DEFINED ON SUNDAY.

OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN THIS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE OVER
TABASCO/CAMPECHE TO NORTHERN CHIAPAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY EXPECT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION
OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON FRIDAY THIS INCREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WHILE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA. OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE FRONTAL NORTHERLIES
WILL SUSTAIN A COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE ENSUING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY...WITH ACCUMULATION
OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. ON SUNDAY EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA-PANAMA THE SHEAR LINE WILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

A TUTT TO THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN GUIANAS. A WANING
POLAR TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MERGES WITH THIS TUTT ON FRIDAY.
AS THEY INTERACT...A LOW CLOSES EAST OF THE ISLANDS...TO THEN
EXTEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS VENEZUELA TO EASTERN COLOMBIA ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS AN
INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS/NORTH OF THE GUIANAS.
THIS TENDS TO AMPLIFY NORTH ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW DURING THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN/NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL FAVOR A COOL
ADVECTIVE PATTERN AND EARLY MORNING SHALLOW CONVECTION. ACROSS THE
FRENCH ISLES TO THE VIRGIN ISLES/PUERTO RICO THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER THE GUIANAS TO THE SOUTH...IN INTERACTION
WITH THE NET/ATLANTIC ITCZ EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THROUGH SATURDAY ACTIVITY
ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER AMAZONIA IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA
TO EASTERN COLOMBIA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA INITIALLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA AS ENHANCED BY
THE PANAMANIAN LOW/TROUGH. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
BUENAVENTURA AND QUIBDO...WHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. THIS TENDS TO DECREASE LATER DURING THE
WEEKEND.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF
NONE

AMPARO...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
PICHINTE...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$