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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 271817
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2020

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM MAY 27/18 UTC: AN UPPER DIVERGENT PULSE
OF THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION CONTINUES APPROACHING THE
AMERICAS. THE PULSE IS FORECAST TO ENTER MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY MAY 29...TO EXIT INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
BY JUNE 6-8. THE REGION OF CONCERN IS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...AS MODELS CONTINUE RESOLVING BROAD CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS WEEKEND. UNDER THIS PATTERN...THE ITCZ
IS EXPECTED TO MODULATE NORTHWARD TO SUSTAIN HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR AND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION IS STILL LOW. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE FOR MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...TO THEN BE RAPIDLY DRAW
NORTHEASTWARD BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. AS THE TROUGH
EXITS...IT WILL SUSTAIN THE BUILDING OF A POLAR RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS OF THE USA AND ESTABLISH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN MEXICO.
THESE WILL STIMULATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL AND GULF COAST OF MEXICO TO SUSTAIN HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE CENTRAL MEXICAN
PLATEAU AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 10MM. BY THURSDAY...THE NORTHERLIES WILL START TO
STIMULATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NORTHEAST MEXICO TO SUSTAIN
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH A RISK FOR SEVERITY. IN
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL EXPECTING
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. THIS PEAKS ON FRIDAY TO SUSTAIN
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN NORTHERN CERACRUZ...WHILE IN
NORTHEAST MEXICO EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. IN
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ EXPECING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TO THE EAST IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES IN
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND IN THE
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TUTT...EXPECTING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. ON
WEDNESDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST CUBA.
THIS DECREASES IN COVERAGE ON THURSDAY...AS A DRY AIRMASS ARRIVES
FROM THE EAST. ON FRIDAY...MOIST PLUME ARRIVING FROM HISPANIOLA
WILL SUSTAIN AN INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
SOUTHEAST CUBA. IN THE BAHAMAS...EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
MAXIMA UNDER 10MM/DAY THROUGH THE CYCLE.

A MOIST WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER DIVERGENT PULSE OF THE MADDEN
JULIAN...MODELS ARE RESOLVING THE FORMATION OF THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN GYRE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY LATE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...CONVECTION IS ACTIVE IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA UNDER
THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE ITCZ...AND IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...EXPECTING 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN EL
SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND IN WESTERN
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. IN NORTHERN
GUATEMALA/BELIZE/YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. BY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EXPECTING
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN
PANAMA. IN EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND IN NORTHERN
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS/TABASCO/YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. BY FRIDAY...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM N WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA...WHILE IN CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN
HONDURAS EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

A POTENT TUTT LIES IN TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...ALONG 34N 48W...TO 27N 57W. THIS IS SUSTAINING AN
INDUCED PERTURBATION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE TUTT AND INDUCED
PERTURBATION WILL STIMULATE ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN BOTH
ISLANDS. TO THE EAST...ACROSS THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY THURSDAY...EXPECTING A PEAK
IN ACCUMULATIONS. CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN BOTH ISLANDS...WHILE IN THE VIRGIN AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BY
FRIDAY...EXPECTING STILL ACTIVE CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ELSEWHERE IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERING IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXPECTING
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND SHOWER CONVECTION...GENERALLY
UNDER 10MM/DAY.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ACTIVITY WILL BE ORGANIZED MOSTLY WITH
WAVES IN THE TRADES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS GUYANA
ON WEDNESDAY...CENTRAL/WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA ON
THURSDAY...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN COLOMBIA ON FRIDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ACTIVATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW AND LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. THIS WILL SUSTAIN 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM.
TO THE EAST...EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM
EASTERN COLOMBIA INTO RORAIMA/SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE WILL ALSO STIMULATE
CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST SURINAME AND NORTHERN GUYANA TO SUSTAIN
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. BY THURSDAY...AS THE WAVE
PROPAGATES ACROSS SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...IT WILL SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WESTERN
GUYANA/RORAIMA INTO EASTERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST BRASIL. IN NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN WESTERN COLIMBIA...ENHANCED WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. BY
FRIDAY...LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECTING
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE EJE CAFETERO/DARIEN. IN EASTERN CLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...TRAILING MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE WILL SUSTAIN
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN GUYANA...WHILE IN FRENCH GUYANA AND SURINAME EXPECTING
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

GALVEZ/DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$