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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 071748
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
147 PM EDT TUE APR 07 2020

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM APRIL 7/18 UTC: NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...A
SURFACE FRONT IS ENTERING EXTREME NORTHWEST MEXICO. BY TUESDAY
EVENING IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM JUST WEST OF MEXICALI INTO
EL ROSARIO IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM JUST WEST OF PHOENIX...NORTHWEST SONORA INTO
BAHIA TORTUGAS IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WHERE IT WILL BE
LOSING DEFINITION. STIMULATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND BY THE
INCREASINGLY UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING PULSE OF THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION...THIS WILL
SUSTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON A DAILY
BASIS. NOTE THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE COME SUFFICIENTLY COLD ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED SNOWFALL IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA PEDRO MARTIR IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ALSO IN NORTHERN MEXICO...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN USA WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL INDUCE
PERIODS OF ASCENT THROUGH THE CYCLE. THESE AID WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MEXICO
ON A DAILY BASIS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM IN COAHUILA. THIS INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25MM
ON WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN EASTERN
COAHUILA...NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS...WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERITY.

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THESE REGIONS AND AT MID-LEVELS...A RIDGE
PATTERN DOMINATES A WIDE BELT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE ARC OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHICH IS SUSTAINING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY...A ROBUST AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
EASTWARD...TO REACH THE ARC OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THURSDAY.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECTING LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IN THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE CYCLE.
AN EXCEPTION IS PUERTO RICO...WHERE INTERMITTENT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN A SURFACE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. IN NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON A DAILY BASIS IN THE PACIFIC
BASINS OF CHIAPAS AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. THIS PEAKS ON
THURSDAY...WHEN EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MAXIMA NEAR 10MM/DAY. ALSO IN
CENTRAL AMERICA...TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION
IN BOCAS DEL TORO IN PANAMA. THIS PEAKS ON TUESDAY...WHEN
EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THIS DECREASES TO
MAXIMA OF 15MM AFTER.

PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE THE ONLY REGIONS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WHERE MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FRONT AND WEAKENING SHEAR LINE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE REGION
LIES IN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH...WHERE SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ARE PROPAGATING IN THE MID-LEVELS. MODELS AGREE ON A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING INTO PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHEAR
LINE...TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. INITIALLY...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY
AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THIS
PEAKS AT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THIS DECREASES AFTER.
ALSO IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE WILL STIMULATE
PRECIPITATION IN THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHERE EXPECTING
MAXIMA UNDER 15MM/DAY.

TO THE SOUTH....THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE HAS
BUILT INTO THE CARIBBEAN COAST AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
HAS DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAIMENT
THAT GENERALLY OCCURS UNDER WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. IN RESPONSE...CONVECTION IN COLOMBIA AND
EASTERN PANAMA IS ACTIVATING. FURTHERMORE...THE PACIFIC ITCZ IS
MEANDERING NORTHWARD...TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA THROUGH THE CYCLE. LASTLY...AS THE WET PHASE OF
THE MADDEN JULIAN APPROACHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...VENTILATION
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE FORECAST
CYCLE...TUESDAY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA/EASTERN PANAMA WHERE EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE AMAZON BASIN/ORINOQUIA WILL
SUSTAIN SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY...AS PANAMANIAN LOW
INTENSIFIES...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA TO SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. ELSEWHERE IN ANDEAN COLOMBIA EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN THE AMAZON BASIN...COLOMBIAN ORINOQUIA AND
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ANDES...A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SUSTAIN A PEAK IN
CONVECTION. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. BY THURSDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE PANAMANIAN
LOW. EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA/SOUTHERN ORINOQUIA...WHILE A
DECREASING TREND IN THE AMAZON BASIN LEADS TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. EAST IN THE GUIANAS...ACTIVITY WILL FLARE UP IN
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRIES ON A DAILY BASIS. A
PERTURBATION CROSSES SURINAME ON TUESDAY...TO SUSTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION IN MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THIS DECREASES ON
WEDNESDAY TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WHILE STRONGER
CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BRAZIL BORDER. ACTIVITY
INCREASES TO SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN THE
SOUTHERN GUIANAS ON THURSDAY.

GALVEZ/DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$