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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 191918
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM JAN 19/12 UTC: A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA TO THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE AXIS WILL EXPAND TO ENVELOP THE
WESTERN USA AND MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS TO INITIALLY FOCUS
MOISTURE/ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA MEXICO...TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS SONORA TO CHIHUAHUA ON FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY...MEANWHILE FAVORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL/WESTERN CHIHUAHUA...THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY WILL BECOME FAVORABLE AND HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO BUILD...TO RESULT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-25CM/DAY.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN FRONTOGENESIS
OVER TEXAS ON SATURDAY EVENING. A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SURGE OF
30-45KT DRIVES THIS FRONT EAST AND SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO/TAMAULIPAS EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA... WHILE TRAILING ACROSS THE GULF TO THE YUCATAN/SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO. ON MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ON
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MEXICAN BORDER OVER THE USA. BUT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON
SUNDAY TO MONDAY IT IS TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE OVER WESTERN CUBA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

AS THE POLAR TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TO THE CENTRAL
USA...IT IS TO PRESS AGAINST A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE RIDGE IS TO EXTEND NORTH FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA...ACROSS CUBA TO THE EASTERN USA...MEANWHILE ANCHORING ON
A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. ON SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE CENTRAL USA...THIS IS TO
DISPLACE THE RIDGE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS TO
THEN GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS POLAR TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA TO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE...AS IT HOLDS... SUSTAINS
A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-GREATER ANTILLES
AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA/THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. THE
STRONG CAP INVERSION IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-GREATER ANTILLES AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE INDUCED SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TO EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND BELIZE...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY THE
CAP OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA...TO ALSO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON SUNDAY THIS INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/EASTERN USA FAVORS
THE SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE TROUGH ENVELOPS AREA BETWEEN 75W-60W AND TO THE NORTH OF 22N.
THE TROUGH IS TO BOTTOM OUT LATER TODAY AS IT MEANDERS EAST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AXIS IS TO THEN
PULL TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH SURGES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/BAHAMAS. THE LATTER REACHES PUERTO RICO EARLY
ON SATURDAY MORNING...TO THEN MEANDER EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
LATER IN THE DAY. THESE...HOWEVER...WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BREACH THE TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
ISLES...WHILE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLES/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA THEY ARE
LIKELY TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...A HIGH OVER CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE
EASTERN USA...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. A WANING FRONT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS TO
REACH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES...THEN QUICKLY PULLS AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGE ROLLS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE WANING FRONT REACHES
PUERTO RICO-NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHERE
IT IS FORECAST TO FRONTOLIZE. THIS...MEANWHILE...WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FAVOR LIGHT COASTAL CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES ON SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM.

THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN ROLL FROM THE WEST ACROSS
FLORIDA/CUBA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND FAVORING A COOL ADVECTIVE
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NORTHERN
VENEZUELA ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY EARLY IN THE CYCLE TO 10-15MM/DAY MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY ON FRIDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH
GUIANA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO
MEANDER OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...WITH CLOSED LOW TO SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS LATER TODAY. THIS IS TO MEANDER FARTHER WEST INTO THE
PACIFIC LATER ON FRIDAY/EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
BRASIL/PERU TO FAVOR A SURGE IN CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. THROUGH SUNDAY THIS
WILL DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THE EJE
CAFETERO TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...DECREASING TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. ACROSS
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND AMAZONIA IN COLOMBIA EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY. THROUGH SATURDAY THIS INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC:

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
NONE

JIMENEZ...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MIRANDA...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$