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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 171650
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1149 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2020

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR JANUARY 17/12 UTC: ANALYSIS AND MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION WELL ORGANIZED. THE UPPER
DIVERGENT TIER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHOWING THE UPPER DIVERGENT PORTION OF
THE MJO ARRIVING INTO THE AMERICAS DURING THE WEEKEND...TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE BASIN IS AMIDST THE DRY SEASON...THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
AND THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WHERE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS FAVOR IT.

POTENT TROUGH INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEASTERN USA/NORTH ATLANTIC
IS SUSTAINING A RAPIDLY-MOVING SURFACE FRONT. BY FRIDAY EVENING
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONT
WILL EXTEND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL START
WEAKENING WHILE EXTENDING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUSTAIN AN ILL-DEFINED SHEAR LINE. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THE SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. BY SATURDAY EVENING IT WILL EXTEND INTO TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO...TO THEN WEAKEN. THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN A WELL ESTABLISHED TRADE WIND
CAP...TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATIONS. THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL
STIMULATE SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE BAHAMAS TO SUSTAIN 00-05MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. BY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY EXPECTING
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LINGERING MOIST PLUME WILL SUSTAIN SIMILAR
AMOUNTS.

A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SUFFICIENT UPPER DIVERGENCE TO STIMULATE PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU ON FRIDAY...WHERE
EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. HOWEVER...LARGER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL...WHERE A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
PRESENT. EXPECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY IN
TEXAS...BUT TO ALSO AFFECT NORTHERN COAHUILA ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...TO SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
AFTER THIS PERIOD...A SURFACE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE
BASIN. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL
COAHUILA. BY SUNDAY EVENING IT WILL EXTEND INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
VERACRUZ. BY MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUSTAIN A SHEAR LINE. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE SHEAR LINE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY
MONDAY EVENING IT WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST
HONDURAS. ON SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHEAST
MEXICO AND PRE-FRONTAL EASTERLIES DEVELOP...EXPECTING ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST MEXICO TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. CONVERGENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. BY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PREFRONTAL NORTHERLIES WILL SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY
AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. WITH THE SHEAR
LINE...CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SUSTAIN
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN CHIAPAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA
EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

MOIST PLUME IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS INCREASING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL AMERICA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK ON FRIDAY. IN INTERACTION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
UPPER TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF HONDURAS AND INTO SOUTHERN BELIZE. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. TO
THE SOUTH...IN THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA...TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN A MOIST POOL WILL
SUSTAIN A PEAK IN ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY-SUNDAY WHEN EXPECTING
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THIS DECREASES TO
10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM AFTER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PACIFIC ITCZ GRADUALLY MEANDERING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WESTERN COLOMBIA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION...ALSO AIDED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MJO AND A TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE. EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...TO 10-15MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM. ALSO IN SOUTH AMERICA...ENHANCED TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO WILL
SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON A DAILY BASIS.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF
NONE

PICHINTE...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
TYNES...BMS (THE BAHAMAS)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$