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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 191948
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VI FROM JUL 19/06
UTC: A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF WESTWARD MOVING SYSTEMS IS
ESTABLISHED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ON FRIDAY MORNING...AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AND
EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TO THE EAST...A TUTT
EXTENDS ALONG 50-53W. AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CROSSING THE REGION WHILE EXTENDING ITS AXIS ALONG 65W. DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS HOWEVER CONSTRAINED TI LATITUDES TO
THE SOUTH OF 16N. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
ISLANDS.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEMS RETROGRESS...THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE ARC OF THE ANTILLES FROM THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...AND
POSITION OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNATURE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS...HOWEVER...TOO
DRY ABOVE THE TRADE WIND CAP. THIS WILL FAVOR DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE WESTERN
CORDILLERA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUSTAIN ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 1-2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE CROSSING
TROPICAL WAVE. AS A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CROSSES THE
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY...PRODUCING MAXIMA UNDER 1 INCH. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TUTT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 1-1.5
INCHES. MONDAY CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CLUSTER IN NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TRADES SHIFTING TO SOUTH
EASTERLIES. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE STRUGGLING ON CYCLE-TO-CYCLE
CONTINUITY.


PAREDES...SENAMHI (PERU)
USECHE...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$