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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 171513
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1112 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM AUG 17/12 UTC: THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE CENTERING OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
EXTENDING AN AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING RETROGRESSING UPPER SYSTEMS
TO MEANDER WESTWARD AT LATITUDES TO THE SOUTH OF 25-27N. A UPPER
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS INITIALLY...IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER WESTWARD TO CENTER OFF THE COASTS OF JALISCO BY SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE WEAKENING. ITS MOST IMPORTANT ROLE WILL BE TO
ENHANCE VENTILATION ON FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA/SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AS IT INTERACTS WITH A RETROGRESSING
TUTT TO ITS WEST. ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS UPPER VENTILATION PATTERN
INTERACTS WITH ROBUST EASTERLY WAVE WILL REACH 15-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN MICHOACAN/GUERRERO BY SUNDAY. CONVECTION IN WESTERN
MEXICO WILL BE ACTIVE ON A DAILY BASIS TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

ALSO AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT OVER WESTERN CUBA/THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LIES OVER WITH A DRY AIR
MASS IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE...YET...ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ON A DAILY BASIS.
THIS WILL SUSTAIN LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA WHERE EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THEREAFTER. IN THE
BAHAMAS...CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN DAILY AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON FRIDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15MM THEREAFTER.

IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH...ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY SENSITIVE TO
SEVERAL WAVES THAT ARE PROPAGATING IN THE TRADES (SEE BELOW FOR
ACCUMULATIONS). AT UPPER LEVELS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING AS IT RETROGRESSES FROM THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC TO CENTER ON A HIGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE MONA PASSAGE BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THIS RIDGE ASSOCIATES WITH
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN HISPANIOLA
DURING SUNDAY-MONDAY. YET...VENTILATION IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
SEE BELOW FOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF
41W 44W 47W 50W 53W 55W 58W 61W TW 13N
50W 53W 57W 61W 64W 67W 70W 73W TW 17N
58W 62W 65W 69W 73W 77W 80W 83W TW 15N
64W 67W 70W 73W 76W 79W 82W 85W TW 20N
73W 77W 80W 83W 85W 87W 91W 95W TUTT INDCD 22N
87W 90W 93W 96W 99W 102W 104W 106W EW 24N
93W DSSPTS EW 29N
101W 103W 106W 108W 110W 112W 115W 118W TW 19N

A TRAIN OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUES PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. FROM THESE
WAVES...THE EASTERNMOST IS INITIALIZED AT 41W ON FRIDAY MORNING
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN GUIANAS ON SUNDAY TO SUSTAIN 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM.

THE NEXT WAVE IN THE TRAIN IS INITIALIZED AT 50W. THIS WAVE WILL
ARRIVE INTO THE BASIN LATE ON SATURDAY TO SUSTAIN MOST SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ITCZ
CONVERGENCE AND MOIST PLUME. HERE...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. BY SUNDAY-MONDAY ENHANCEMENT WILL FOCUS ON
PUERTO RICO WHERE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. LARGER AMOUNTS
ARE...YET...EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING MOIST PLUME IN THE FRENCH
ANTILLES AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHERE EXPECTING
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

TO THE WEST AND ALONG THIS TRAIN...TWO TROPICAL WAVES LIE CLOSE
TOGETHER. ONE IS INITIALIZED AT 58W AND ANOTHER AT 64W. THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECTING ENHANCEMENT IN THE ARC OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. ISOLATED LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL CLUSTER
ALONG CENTRAL VENEZUELA WHERE EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY ENHANCEMENT IN HISPANIOLA WILL LEAD TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM MOSTLY ALONG CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND. IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN VENEZUELA...AND
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IN THESE REGIONS EXPECTING MAXIMA
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN DEEP CONVECTION. BY
SUNDAY-MONDAY...ENHANCEMENT WILL CLUSTER TO NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO EASTERN
COSTA RICA...WHERE EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...EXPECTING ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION IN JAMAICA WHERE
EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

A TUTT-INDUCED WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 73W. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH
TUTT LOW TO SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN JAMAICA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON FRIDAY. IN THE BAHAMAS IT WILL FAVOR
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY EXPECTING
ENHANCEMENT TO FOCUS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA WHERE EXPECTING
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. BY SUNDAY-MONDAY...ENHANCEMENT
WILL CLUSTER IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHERE EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ACROSS
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC BASIN OF CHIAPAS EXPECTING
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

AN EASTERLY WAVE AT 87W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY...WHERE EXPECTING 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...EXTENDING WEST INTO VERACRUZ OVERNIGHT. BY
SATURDAY-SUNDAY IT WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM BETWEEN OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO AND
WESTERN GUATEMALA. BY SUNDAY-MONDAY IT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50 IN GUERRERO AND WESTERN OAXACA IN MEXICO.

A WEAKER EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 93W...AND IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W IS EXERTING LITTLE EFFECTS
ON CONTINENTAL CONVECTION AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

WARD-FORBES...BDM (THE BAHAMAS)
HERNANDEZ...IMTA (MEXICO)
TEJADA...AAC (PANAMA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$