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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 112006
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EST MON DEC 11 2017

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM DEC 11/12 UTC: THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST
CONTINUES TO BE A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA SOUTH INTO WESTERN PANAMA. THIS SHEAR LINE
HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR EXTREME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE CYCLE...SEVERAL DAYS WITH MODERATE RAINS ARE
STILL EXPECTED IN WESTERN PANAMA AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF COSTA
RICA.

UPPER TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE
EASTERN USA...WHILE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FURTHERMORE...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC...THAT CENTERS AT 28N 45W...IS EXTENDING AN AXIS
INTO THE NORTHERN GUIANAS. THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE
VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF 30N. IN THIS REGION...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUSTAIN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT FRONT THAT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO NORTHERN
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. AT MID-LEVELS...RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BUILD FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEAST TO OCCUPY MOST OF
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL REINFORCE CURRENT TRADE WIND CAP
THAT IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN ANTILLES...TO
CONTINUE SUSTAINING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ALSO CONTINUE LEADING TO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IN NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY PRODUCED BY
COLD AIR CUMULUS IN NORTHERN COASTS AND SLOPES OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND HONDURAS.

REGARDING THE SURFACE FRONTS...BY MONDAY EVENING THE CURRENT FRONT
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTH EASTERN
BAHAMAS...NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA...NORTHERN HONDURAS-CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. THE ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...INTO BOCAS DEL TORO IN PANAMA. BY
TUESDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA...EXTREME NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...WHILE THE SHEAR LINE WILL LOSE DEFINITION. ALSO DURING
TUESDAY EVENING...A NEW FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE RIO
BRAVO IN MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERNMOST FRONT
WILL REORGANIZE AGAIN TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND
NORTHERN JAMAICA...WHILE TAIL FRONTOLIZES ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE SECOND FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THE SHEAR LINE
WILL REORGANIZE TO EXTEND INTO EXTREME WESTERN PANAMA.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...FRONTAL AND SHEAR LINE CONVERGENCE
WILL CONTINUE STIMULATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS JAMAICA
AND SOUTH EASTERN CUBA...WHERE EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. SHEAR LINE CONVECTION IN INTERACTION WITH THE COAST IN
COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA WILL PRODUCE 50-75MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 100-150MM. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND
CAICOS...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. COLD AIR
CUMULUS CONVECTION IN NORTHERN HONDURAS WILL PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE IN THE GULF OF CAMPECHE EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN COSTA RICA WILL LEAD TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. ACROSS JAMAICA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. IN NORTHERN HAITI/SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND
CAICOS/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. COLD AIR CUMULUS CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO MAXIMA OF
20-35MM CROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS...AND LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CAMPECHE. BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WHERE NORTH
EASTERLIES WILL LEAD TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA WILL
CONTINUE PRODUCING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OVER
JAMAICA...EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...A
TUTT-INDUCED WAVE WILL PROPAGATE AS AN EASTERLY WAVE TO ENHANCE
ACCUMULATIONS LATER IN THE CYCLE (SEE BELOW). IN
COLOMBIA...ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PEAK ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
VALLE DEL CAUCA/EJE CAFETERO...WHERE EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM ON MONDAY...DECREASING AFTER. NOTE THAT A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED IN COLOMBIA BY
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND
MAXIMA BELOW 10MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF
52W 55W 58W 61W 64W 67W 70W 73W TUTT INDCD 20N

A TUTT-INDUCED WAVE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS STARTING TO
PROPAGATE AS AN EASTERLY WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL SLOWLY REGAIN
DEFINITION AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT WILL
STIMULATE PRECIPITATION IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO/NORTHERN GUYANA ON
TUESDAY...WHERE IT WILL PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR AMOUNTS EXPANDING INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTH EASTERN VENEZUELA.

GORDON...NMS (BELIZE)
PECK...MS (JAMAICA)
RIVAS...SENAMHI (PERU)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$