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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 201817
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM SEP 20/12 UTC: THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ARE DISSIPATING IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL IN SONORA-MEXICO. THIS WILL STILL PRODUCE MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY TO SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. A FURTHER DECREASE IS EXPECTED AFTER.

ALSO IN NORTHERN MEXICO...A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UNITED
STATES LATE ON FRIDAY...TO POSITION ACROSS CENTRAL COAHUILA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ORGANIZE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON SATURDAY TO SUSTAIN
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY...THIS
WILL SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN EXTREME NORTHERN
COAHUILA. THIS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY IN COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON AND WESTERN TAMAULIPAS.

ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...STRONGEST DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY
CONCENTRATE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. AT UPPER LEVELS...MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE SETTING FOOTHOLD OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY TO VENTILATE CONVECTION THROUGH THE CYCLE.
INITIALLY...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS INTO
EASTERN OAXACA EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA O0F 25-50MM. BY
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM GUATEMALA INTO
GUERRERO/PUEBLA AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ. WEST ACROSS
MICHOACAN/GUANAJUATO INTO JALISCO/COLIMA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO...THE INFLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION IN
SINALOA/NAYARIT/DURANGO ONCE AGAIN. EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OAXACA INTO
DURANGO/SINALOA.

TO THE EAST...TUTT PATTERN NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS IS EVOLVING. MODELS CONTINUE CONFIDENT ABOUT STRENGTHENING
A TUTT LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY...TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY TO CENTER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA ON
A DAILY BASIS. IN THE BAHAMAS...EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM THROUGH THE CYCLE. IN CUBA...MOST
ACTIVE IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND...WHERE EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-30MM BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY BY
SATURDAY-SUNDAY.

QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER PROPAGATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. THE LIMITED AMOUNTS
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF
THE ISLANDS WILL FAVOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE
CYCLE. HOWEVER...AS BROAD TUTT MEANDERS TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN...EXPECTING A GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF TRADE WIND
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY BY
SATURDAY-SUNDAY IN PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FURTHER
WEST...HOWEVER...EXPECTING LARGER ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA ON
THURSDAY AND WITH JAMAICA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY...AND 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IN JAMAICA ON FRIDAY.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...MOST ACTIVE WILL CLUSTER IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH THE CYCLE. INITIALLY...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. BY FRIDAY...AMOUNTS IN COLOMBIA WILL DECREASE TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. AS MID-LEVEL WINDS DECREASE IN
SPEED AND A TROUGH ORGANIZES ALONG 70-71W...EXPECTING AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION IN NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING TO SUSTAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. TO
THE EAST...ITCZ CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA
INTO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO WILL SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. DIURNAL CONVECTION IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA WILL ALSO SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH THE CYCLE. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE GUIANAS.

WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
CYCLE...FROM COSTA RICA INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DEEP-LAYER MOIST POOL AND WAVES IN THE TRADES CROSSING THE
REGION (SEE BELOW). INITIALLY...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENHANCE
ACTIVITY FROM COSTA RICA NORTH INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NICARAGUA AND THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET.
THIS WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. WEST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA INTO BELIZE EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS EL SALVADOR WEST INTO GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS TO SUSTAIN
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM COSTA RICA NORTH INTO
EASTERN HONDURAS. TO THE WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS INTO
GUATEMALA EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES...EXPECTING ONCE
AGAIN AN INCREASE IN NICARAGUA/NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO PRODUCE
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. WEST ACROSS EL SALVADOR INTO
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ALSO...UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND TUTT OVER THE GULF...THE MOIST
PLUME WILL ADVANCE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS/EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TO SUSTAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF
48/49W DISS TW 14N
71W 73W 76W 79W 83W 86W 89W 92W TW 20N
84W 88W 92W 95W 98W 101W 104W 107W EW 14N

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 48-49W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THIS
SYSTEM HAS FORMED AN ITCZ SURFACE LOW. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TUTT
TO THE NORTH...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY LITTLE...AND THE NHC IS
INDICATING LOW CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR. THE
MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY START
PROPAGATING WESTWARD DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE THE TUTT TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED 71W...AND IS PROPAGATING AHEAD OF A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. BY THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA WHERE IT WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN HISPANIOLA...EXPECTING
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IN JAMAICA. IN CUBA...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH PATTERN
TO THE NORTHWEST...TO FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS. BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXPECTING ACTIVITY CLUSTERING IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN NICARAGUA...AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM IN EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA. IN NORTHERN HONDURAS AND
NORTHERN BELIZE/EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
20-30MM.

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 84W AND ITS DEFINED TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY TO THEN EXIT INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

WARD-FORBES...BDM (THE BAHAMAS)
TEJADA...AAC (PANAMA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$