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Caribbean Weather Discussion

 

FXCA20 KWBC 211930
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2017

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM AUG 21/12 UTC: A FEATURE OF INTEREST ARE
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM HARVEY. THESE HAVE EVOLVED
INTO AN OPEN WAVE...AND ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION IS WEAK...THE SYSTEM
IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN BELIZE/NORTHERN HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA. THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO EASTERN YUCATAN/BELIZE WHERE
EXPECTING 10-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. WEST ACROSS THE GULF
OF CAMPECHE/CHIAPAS/NORTHERN GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN BELIZE...AND IN
NORTHERN HONDURAS...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
BY TUESDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY EXPECTING 25-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO WESTERN
BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS/TABASCO/CAMPECHE IN
MEXICO. ACROSS SOUTHERN CHIAPAS/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO WESTERN
HONDURAS EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. BY
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...AS THE CORE OF CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE EXITS INTO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS IN CONTINENTAL AREAS TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM.

OTHER REGION OF INTEREST ARE HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TUTT WILL MEANDER FROM THE BAHAMAS ON MONDAY
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS/WESTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TUTT IS
INDUCING A WAVE IN THE TRADES THAT WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON MONDAY...CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND WESTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL
PHASE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALSO ENHANCE
CONVECTION. THUS EXPECTING A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE CYCLE.
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
HISPANIOLA WHERE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECTING
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CLUSTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA WHERE EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS WILL CLUSTER
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA WHERE EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM.

IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. BY
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. BY
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...PEAKING ALONG
THE PACIFIC BASINS...WHERE VERY ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY ORGANIZED WITH
TROPICAL WAVES. LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IN AREAS TO THE EAST...EXPECTING
A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE CYCLE AS A DRY AIR MASS ARRIVES
FROM THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CLUSTER IN WESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA WHERE
EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THESE REGIONS...WHILE AN INCREASE
IN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO PRODUCE 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...EXPECTING AN INCREASE
TO 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN WESTERN COLOMBIA. ACROSS
WESTERN VENEZUELA...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA
EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GUIANAS EXPECTING LIGHT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY MID-LEVELS.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC:
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF

57W 60W 63W 65W 67W 70W 73W 77W TW 13N
70W 72W 75W 78W 80W 82W 84W 87W TW 23N
83W 86W 88W 90W 92W 93W 94W 95W TW 23N

100W 103W 107W 110W 113W DISSIPATES EW 16N

TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 57W WILL HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS IN
PRECIPITATION AS IT IS INTERACTING WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS WAVE WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA WHERE IT WILL LEAD TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 70W HAS A MORE ROBUST SIGNATURE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN COMPARISON WITH THE ONE AT 57W. THIS
WAVE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN HISPANIOLA ON
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ENHANCEMENT WILL
CONCENTRATE ACROSS JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA WHERE EXPECTING
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM./ ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY
WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTING ENHANCEMENT ACROSS WESTERN
COLOMBIA WHERE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY...AND ACROSS COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA WHERE EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
ACROSS NICARAGUA/HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

TROPICAL WAVE AT 83W HAS REFORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS
OF HARVEY. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH THE CYCLE...LEADING TO MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF
50-10MM/DAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS PERIOD THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MEANDER INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

AN EASTERLY WAVE AT 100W IS PRODUCING LIMITED EFFECTS IN
CONTINENTAL CONVECTION.

GUY...NMS (BELIZE)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$